Monday, April 27, 1998 | 11:26 a.m.
FOR THE SECOND TIME in the history of America's most famous horse race, a reigning Horse of the Year will take to the track in pursuit of the roses.
And you would think, with the golden Eclipse trophy in tow and only one narrow defeat on his record, the lofty plateau accompanied by those accomplishments would make him the undisputed favorite of Kentucky Derby No. 124.
But the only association that the 1997 Horse of the Year will have to the betting choice in this year's Derby will be his name. Favorite Trick won't be the favorite, and his new trainer Bill Mott hopes that very statistic will provide the trick to winning the Derby.
You see, a post-time Derby favorite hasn't won the first jewel of the Triple Crown since Spectacular Bid beat nine others in 1979. That's right, 1979!
Only the filly Winning Colors came close, as she and Private Terms were each $3.40 to the dollar, although he was the slight favorite, in capturing the Derby 10 years ago.
Even the top Derby human connections may not be enough to carry the Derby asterisk to victory.
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who took three Derbies of the last 10 and has the most staters in Derby history with 32, won't have the horse with the most cash on the nose this year. His top prospect Cape Town, who will be ridden by jockey Jerry Bailey, who himself has won two of the last four runnings, is listed at attractive odds in spite of a pair of victories over the Churchill strip.
Trainer Nick Zito, who lives to run in the Derby, may come close with his Halory Hunter. He won the recent Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland, which is the same route Zito took with Strike The Gold's Derby win in 1991, and is owned by NBA coach Rick Pitino. Fans at the Downs may use some sentiment of Pitino's NCAA Championship Kentucky Wildcats of 1996 combined with Zito's two Derby wins of this decade, having also won the Derby in 1994 with Go For Gin.
So what's the deal with Derby favorites not producing on the first Saturday in May?
Well, many factors contribute to final decisions on where the Derby dollars wind up and who finally carries the load in Louisville. Pre-race hype, an overabundance of opinions on the most overanalyzed and overpublicized race of the year, certainly influences the "square action" by the once-a-year player that lumps into a huge national pool along with the "wiseguy" money.
Perfection and jinxes may very well decide who the favorite will be by the 2:38 p.m. post time for the Derby on Saturday.
Add a little charisma and recent history, and a horse by the name of Indian Charlie may be the one that carries the mail at the mutuels in the 1 1/4-mile classic.
Indian Charlie has all the elements of a Derby favorite, but can he deliver the goods at the cashier's window?
He is trained by the silver-haired Bob Baffert, who brought you that thrilling cliffhanger victory last year with Silver Charm. His personality and quotable nature make him an easy mark for media sound bites and newspaper copy. Jockey Gary Stevens makes a perfect leading man, again teaming up with Baffert, aboard Charlie as he tries to become only the fifth rider in Derby history to win in succession and take the roses for the fourth time overall.
Named after a renegade backstretch newspaper covering racing at Churchill, Indian Charlie is the only undefeated entrant left to face the Derby starter. The son of In Excess is four for four, having won the prestigious Santa Anita Derby in his last outing.
Event Of The Year, who injured himself preparing for the Derby on Friday, and Favorite Trick, before his only defeat in the Arkansas Derby in his last race, were the only other perfect steeds to challenge Charlie's unblemished record.
It should be noted, though, of the last 10 Derbies only three won off a previous victory, and those came in 1988 with Winning Colors (Santa Anita Derby), 1989 in Sunday Silence (Santa Anita Derby) and the aforementioned Strike The Gold. The last six Derby winners did not win their Derby prep races.
Also, of the 14 previously unbeaten Derby starters, only four managed to stay perfect with a Derby victory.
Favorite Trick must overcome the Derby Future Book and Breeders' Cup Juvenile jinxes in addition to the nagging pedigree and dreaded dosage angles.
No horse, since its inception in 1984, has won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and returned the next year to win the Derby. Not since Spectacular Bid has a Derby Future Book favorite won.
The family tree of Phone Trick has predominantly produced class sprinters but has yet to get a classic distance winner, lending a high unattractive dosage index that is a burgoo of ingredients calculated by a staff of mysterious experts. Declaring a 98.5 percent success rate, dating back to the 1929 Derby, one wonders how many index qualifiers were retrofitted after their Derby win, like Strike The Gold in 1991.
Nevertheless, the Derby favorites have been duds for almost two decades. Only four of the last 10 have managed an in-the-money finish. Last year, Captain Bodgit joined Prairie Bayou (1993) and Easy Goer (1989), who finished second, while Timber Country managed a third in 1995.
This year, the answer to the question "who's the Derby favorite?" may be more important than the usual "Who do you like?", which beckons the old racetrack adage, "There ain't a man alive who pays the rent on 9 to 5."
Certainly not in recent Derbies.
archive
