Saturday, April 11, 1998 | 2:04 a.m.
JEFF GERMAN is a senior investigative reporter. His column also appears in the Las Vegas SUN on Tuesdays and Thursdays. He can be reached at 259-4067 or on the Internet at [email protected]
IT'S still early in the Republican primary for governor, but the latest GOP poll has brought good news to the Kenny Guinn campaign.
The statewide survey of 600 registered Republicans, conducted April 1-2, gives Guinn a commanding lead over his nearest challengers.
In a head-to-head race, Guinn bests Hollywood producer Aaron Russo by a 54-34 percent margin. The rest of those polled are undecided or not voting.
Even if Lt. Gov. Lonnie Hammargren is added to the mix, Guinn comes out with a big lead.
In a statewide race between all three men, Guinn receives 44 percent to 20 percent for Russo and 16 percent for Hammargren. The rest of those surveyed are undecided or not voting.
Hammargren's poor showing indicates he may not be as popular as he thinks.
In party circles, there's talk that Hammargren has hurt himself by being indecisive about his political future.
Depending on which month it is, he flip-flops over whether he'll run for governor, Congress or re-election.
And while Hammargren has been procrastinating, others have made decisions.
Clark County Commissioner Lorraine Hunt, for example, is gearing up to launch her Republican campaign for lieutenant governor Tuesday with an open house at her headquarters on Eastern Avenue.
Hammargren would have a tough time defeating the well-liked Hunt in the primary. Then, if he got by Hunt, he'd have to face Rose McKinney-James, considered one of the best Democratic candidates this year.
In the governor's race, Hammargren's chances have been harmed by news that Secretary of State Dean Heller has bowed out. Heller, a rising GOP star, would have pulled away votes from Guinn among mainstream Republicans and given Hammargren an opening to the nomination.
But without Heller in the race, Hammargren stands to receive much more media scrutiny. And that's likely to bring out his eccentric tendencies and past political gaffes.
Raising money also will be a problem for Hammargren.
The neurosurgeon has set aside $500,000 from his retirement fund for a possible run, but that can't match Guinn's campaign war chest, which is approaching $3 million. It also isn't enough to keep up with the independently wealthy Russo, who is estimated to have spent more than $300,000 so far on television ads.
So it seems that Hammargren's best option, even though it may not be his heart's desire, is to run for Congress.
But even there, Republicans are starting to field some credible candidates to challenge the well-funded Democrat, Regent Shelley Berkley.
Hammargren's worst nightmare here is if District Judge Don Chairez gets into the race. Chairez, who's said to be leaning toward running, is the man Rep. John Ensign, R-Nev., hopes will succeed him.
The latest Republican poll has more bad news for Hammargren.
His name recognition is a solid 78 percent, but only 34 percent view him in a favorable light. A total of 26 percent of those surveyed say they have an unfavorable impression of Hammargren.
Russo, who's running on an anti-government platform, is in even worse shape.
Though 83 percent of registered Republicans now know Russo because of his television media blitz, only 24 percent see him favorably. A whopping 41 percent have a negative view of the fiery candidate who has taken on his own party.
This poll, which was conducted after Russo had disrupted the Clark County GOP convention in March, shows that Republicans did not react favorably to his antics. His negatives have doubled since then.
Guinn, meanwhile, who has a 76 percent name recognition with Republicans, is seen in a favorable light by 42 percent of those polled with only 13 percent unfavorable.
When you consider that Guinn hasn't even run television ads yet, you can see why those in his campaign are smiling these days.
* The battle of the polls continues in John Ensign's bid to unseat two-term Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev.
When we last checked, Republicans had come up with a political survey that showed Ensign a mere nine points behind the incumbent senator.
The GOP, naturally, was ecstatic.
But several days ago, the Democrats released the results of a new poll they've been given that shows Reid 17 points ahead.
Today, the Democrats are jumping for joy.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee says the poll of 800 "likely" Nevada voters has Reid ahead by a 49-32 percent margin.
The survey, conducted on behalf of labor interests, was completed March 13 by the Washington-based Fingerhut/Granados company.
Reid's own polls mirror the Democratic survey. The senator's tracking has him as much as 17 points ahead of Ensign.
In Northern Nevada, according to the Democratic poll, Reid also remains more popular than Ensign.
This past week, Ensign was in Washoe County campaigning to make up some ground.
He appears to be pulling out all stops.
In an interview with the Reno Gazette-Journal, Ensign reminded voters he grew up in Reno and Carson City.
"You can take the boy out of Northern Nevada," he told the newspaper. "But you can't take Northern Nevada out of the boy."
No word on how those remarks are going over in Southern Nevada.
* Ex-FBI man George Togliatti has resisted running for political office.
But his daughter, Jennifer Togliatti, has caught the bug.
The younger Togliatti, a deputy district attorney since 1993, has set her sights on the newly created Justice of the Peace seat in Las Vegas.
Togliatti, a 1989 UNLV graduate, already is said to have lined up some political heavy hitters in her corner.
Among those reported to be backing her are Las Vegas Mayor Jan Laverty Jones, ex-District Attorney Rex Bell and political strategist Sig Rogich.
* Marilee Joyce's weekly "Eye on Washington" television show, which has a penchant for attracting the biggest political names inside the Beltway, is moving from KTNV Channel 13 to KLAS Channel 8.
The state's only news broadcast from Washington also will be rebroadcast five times a week on the Las Vegas One all news channel.
House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole are among those who have appeared on the show, which discusses Washington issues of interest to Nevadans.
"Eye on Washington" also is aired in Reno.
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