Thursday, April 9, 1998 | 10:10 a.m.
As Lake Mead's waters lap the lip of Hoover Dam's spillway, many visitors speculate on when the high water will create a spectacular waterfall.
Not likely, a Bureau of Reclamation official said.
In fact, the bureau's best guess is a 3-foot drop in the lake by the end of April. Then there's another 3 feet expected to drop in May.
And the lake's water level will continue to drop through September.
"We are not planning to see the water go over the spillways this year," said Colleen Dwyer of the Bureau of Reclamation from her Boulder City office.
Since last year, the bureau has released extra water to prevent flooding downstream, Dwyer said.
Then El Nino, the warm-water mass in the Pacific Ocean that creates heavy winter rains in the Southwest, dropped most of its moisture in Southern California.
"Most of the weather systems stopped in the Sierra Nevada mountains," Dwyer said.
Lake Mead is as full as it has been in 10 years, but so far, this event is very different from the 1982-83 El Nino that created a flood on the Colorado River, spilling over Hoover Dam for the second time in its history.
Dwyer explained that several different weather systems struck the West late in May 1983, after an excessive amount of snow. Heavy snows in the Rocky Mountains followed by an extreme heat wave in May caused the flooding. "That left us kind of surprised," she said.
This year the bureau has tracked storms, snows and watched spring weather closely.
Lake Mead has 500,000 acre feet less water in it than the April 1 forecast, she said. Each acre foot of water can supply a family of five for a year.
Lake Powell is upstream on the Colorado River in Utah and has an extra 2 million acre feet of space this year, she said, acting as a cushion to catch spring flooding. "It's 13 feet lower than it was in 1983 up there," Dwyer said.
In fact, the bureau ended flood control releases from Hoover Dam on April 1, based on the lower water levels predicted, Dwyer said.
The current forecast for runoff from April through July is below normal, she said.
"Fishermen are having the best year ever," she said. High waters have created new habitat for stripers and other sports fish to spawn and feed.
"If nothing else, Southern Nevadans can look forward to a nice full lake," she said. "No sandbars or islands to avoid."
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