Saturday, April 13, 1996 | 11:59 a.m.
THE WISE GUYS have the early lead in the "Battle of the Software."
That's the consensus on the street after an NBA season in which skilled bettors have steadily beaten the house on totals wagers. The sharper players have also cleaned up on NHL wagers, and they were doing so well on greyhounds that one prominent book took the dogs down.
What with the baseball season now under way and the pros expecting their usual winning summer, it could be argued the well-schooled and research-driven sports bettor has never been hotter.
But the bookies aren't going down easily. In fact, due to the gamblers' big season with NBA totals, the city's most prominent oddsmaker, Michael "Roxy" Roxborough of the Las Vegas Sports Consultants firm, has enlisted some help.
He reported last week, "I hired a guy with a master's in math who used to work for the National Security Council. I'm using him to crack the NBA totals code by using regression analysis.
"We're not just sitting back here wondering why we're getting beat."
In pursuit of better numbers, Roxborough has his man researching NBA totals from the past decade using regression analysis. What prompted that move was the realization the wise guys having already been doing it, and that their use of computer software was at least one reason they've had a profitable NBA season.
"In the old days, the books used loose-leaf notebooks and kept a few figures in there," Roxborough said. "Obviously, that's not nearly good enough anymore. We're always doing analysis, but now we're into another stage, one that reflects what a big business this has become."
Those polled readily admit the high-end player has been cleaning up on NBA totals.
"It's been more than a struggle, it's been a losing proposition this year," said Mirage sports book director Jimmy Vaccaro. "We try to research as much as we can, but the smart guy has been a step ahead of us."
The Mirage is the focal point of the attack, as far as the bettors are concerned, because that book has the highest limit ($2,000 on NBA totals) and because it has its numbers up by 9 a.m. or shortly thereafter. A small crowd gathers each day to see the numbers go up, and, once they're up, it touches off a frenzy of activity.
"The numbers frequently move substantially," Vaccaro said. "The smart people aren't there to lose money, they're playing to win. So they're watching what we put up and jumping on the numbers they like.
"But I'm not complaining. You have to suffer through the bad and this has been our worst year in five. Overall, we're still winning on basketball and there have been years we've won on NBA totals. Now, if we were to lose four or five years in a row, I'd take a different look at it and maybe lower our limits to take the sting out. But I'm not close to doing that yet."
Roxborough's firm sets the line for most Las Vegas sports books, plus it's picked up by more than 100 newspapers. When his numbers are off just enough that the wise guys are winning, he hears about it from the sports book operators.
"People are constantly calling Roxy when things aren't going well," Vaccaro said. "They want him to look into a crystal ball and give them an answer on why they've been getting beat."
The calls have come with regularity this pro basketball season.
"I've lost a lot of sleep over this," Roxborough said. "The bettors are doing good work and they're running well on top of it. The NBA is basically a professional gambler's game, which is why most places keep their limits low.
"What's happened this season is that there are a couple of handicappers in town who are doing their job. It's two guys with 100 following them."
The average bettor -- "the guy from Des Moines," as Roxborough would say -- is still losing, however, and he probably always will. That allows the books to stay ahead in the overall picture.
"Sports books in the state won $90 million last fiscal year," Roxy pointed out. "So some of the losses we take are inconsequential."
He lumped the NHL into the inconsequential category despite the fact that some bettors around town have done well all season.
"If anybody is doing well, it hasn't been significant enough to move the line," he said. "I'd say we're winning about what we figured to. If the bettor was really winning, they'd bet as much as they could and the line would move."
It could be that the NBA totals are attracting well-financed bettors, while those playing the NHL are "grinders" who nickel and dime their way through the season.
"Grinders don't count," Roxborough said. "I haven't lost one minute's sleep on the NHL."
Likewise, he had little concern that greyhounds were taken down at the Las Vegas Hilton book after the house determined they were a losing proposition. The dogs -- like the NBA, as far as the pro bettors are concerned -- have a following that pushes hard for inside information on a daily basis.
Inside info came into play last Sunday in the NBA game between the Orlando Magic and the Chicago Bulls when some with their ear to the ground found out Magic center Shaquille O'Neal had spent Saturday night away from the team and on his own in Atlanta. He didn't arrive at the Orlando Arena until tipoff and played less than usual as the Magic lost by four. More to the point, the game was up in Las Vegas with a 201 total and it came in under at 176 (90-86).
No amount of regression analysis was going to help the bookies on that one.
archive
