NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Sunday’s games

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, March 24, 2024 | 2 a.m.

Forget about Connecticut having the toughest path of any No. 1 seed to reach the Final Four.

Score one for those argue too much is made of seeding on Selection Sunday.

The top half of the defending national champion’s East Region cleared significantly in the round of 64. The Huskies’ burden was mainly that it looked like they were going to have to beat two of the best teams in the nation to reach the Final Four, not to mention a side some thought had such upside in the round of 32.

Well, now, they’ll have to face only one such team at most and not until the Elite Eight. That’s the fallout from what edges Oakland’s win over Kentucky as the biggest upset of the round of 64 from a betting perspective — No. 13 seed Yale’s 78-76 victory over No. 4 seed Auburn as closing 14-point underdogs.

Connecticut will now play either San Diego State or Yale in the Sweet 16 if it advances there, and should be a double-digit favorite over either instead of potentially giving a short number to Auburn. The Huskies will first have to get by No. 9 seed Northwestern today, but they’re 14.5-point favorites in the contest — three or four more points than they would have been against No. 8 seed Florida Atlantic.

Connecticut opened as high as +110 (i.e. risking $100 to win $110) to win the East, but are now as low as -170 (i.e. risking $170 to win $100). Its odds to win the national championship have dropped from 4-to-1 to 5-to-2.

Those moves might be a bit over-aggressive, but there’s no disputing Connecticut’s title defense has gotten easier in the last week.  

Read below for my pick on all of Sunday’s round of 32 games. Games are labeled in one of three confidence categories, and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas. The record for the tournament currently stands at 24-18-2 (6-10-1 on plays, 10-3 on leans and 8-5-1 on guesses). 

No. 3 seed Baylor -4.5 vs. No. 6 seed Clemson, over/under: 145. For some reason, Clemson is the team that no one wants to back. There’s usually value on the team no one wants to back. The Tigers are the healthier side and have a plus-matchup with the best player in the game, big man PJ Hall, to boot. Baylor’s defensive numbers in the paint are among the worst remaining in the tournament and they’re prolific hackers with Clemson the best free-throw shooting team still alive. Play: Clemson +4.5.

No. 4 seed Alabama -5.5 vs. No. 12 seed Grand Canyon, over/under: 168.5. Grand Canyon was able to channel its athletic advantage to upset Saint Mary’s 75-66 as 5.5-point underdogs in the round of 64. There’s no way that approach is working against Alabama; Grand Canyon will have to find another way and the potential paths are narrow. After Alabama’s 109-96 victory over Charleston as closing 8.5-point favorites, it’s now won and covered in all eight games against mid-major opponents this year while always scoring in triple digits. Play: Alabama -5.5.

No. 4 seed Duke -7 vs. No. 12 seed James Madison, over/under: 148.5. A few tight losses — all three of them  have been by less than six points — have hidden the fact that Duke has started to deliver on the promise that had many pegging it as a national-championship favorite at the start of the season. The Blue Devils have a highly-complementary lineup they’ve used to slice apart the majority of their opponents, and the Sun Belt Conference champions should be no different. Play: Duke -7.

No. 2 seed Marquette -4.5 vs. No. 10 seed Colorado, over/under: 147. Since finally getting its full complement of players healthy together at the same time to start the postseason, Colorado has almost looked like an NBA team — maybe more accurately, a Kentucky-type team that can actually defend. Overreacting to recent results is one mistake, but so is discrediting them fully when there’s a tangible reason for an uptick. Winning three elimination games in five days is a tall task, but the Buffaloes are playing much better than the money coming in against them indicates. Lean: Colorado +4.5.

No. 1 seed Houston -10.5 vs. No. 9 seed Texas A&M, over/under: 134. Texas A&M is the rare team in the country that can match Houston’s perennial rebounding prowess. The Aggies might be all too willing to play the Cougars’ preferred slow-it-down, slug-it-out style, and if that’s the game state, points will be at a premium and make it difficult to cover this large of a spread. Lean: Texas A&M +10.5.

No. 1 seed Connecticut -14.5 vs. No. 8 seed Northwestern, over/under: 136. I bet based on my numbers, and there’s no way I can twist and contort any number or statistics to make the Huskies higher than a 13-point favorite here. And yet the true outliers, i.e. the very best teams, are always difficult to price and outperform projections regularly. That’s why I can’t bring myself to actually bet against Connecticut any longer, even though I’ll hesitantly stick to my guns and guess it wins by slightly fewer than this massive spread. Guess: Northwestern +14.5.

No. 1 seed Purdue -11.5 vs. No. 8 seed Utah State, over/under: 148.5. On a day full of them, here’s yet another — and one final — example of a great team that should win but has seen the asking price get too high on it. Utah State has decent size, a strong starting five and a schematic great in coach Danny Sprinkle. The opening price of Purdue -10.5 made sense, but the spread has since crept into territory where the Aggies are the only side worth considering. Guess: Utah State +11.5.

No. 5 seed San Diego State -5 vs. No. 13 seed Yale, over/under: 129. The Aztecs and Bulldogs don’t play all that dissimilarly — through the post at a deliberate pace — but the former comes off as a better version of the latter. Yale played its best game of the year to shock Auburn, and executing at that high of a level for two straight NCAA Tournament games is a big ask. This number looks right, but San Diego State’s Jaedon LeDee is the most likely player on the court to take over the game. Guess: San Diego State -5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or