NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the Final Four

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, April 6, 2024 | 2 a.m.

An all-time evenly-matched Sweet 16 a week ago has given way to a historically lopsided Final Four by the betting odds.

Connecticut and Purdue are favored by a combined 20.5 points over Alabama and NC State, respectively. That’s the largest margin ever for a pair of national semifinal games.

No other season in the past 20 years has even had two games with spreads of larger than 5.5 points. The towering numbers reflect the dominance of the Huskies and the Boilermakers, but also the surprise runs from the Crimson Tide and Wolfpack.

Alabama came into the NCAA Tournament as high as 8-to-1 to win the West Region, while NC State was as high as 80-to-1 to come out of the South bracket. Both teams have defied the odds so far, but not many bettors are giving them much of a chance to keep it going.

The betting market implies around a 72% chance that Monday’s national championship game will pit Connecticut and Purdue. On lookahead lines, the Huskies are installed as 5.5-point favorites over the Boilermakers in that game.

Could either the Wolfpack or Crimson Tide spoil the matchup?

Read below for my handicaps on both Final Four games as well as an embedded breakdown of the Most Outstanding Player market. Games are labeled in one of three confidence categories, and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas. The record for picking every tournament game currently stands at 35-27-2 (11-12-1 on plays, 13-4 on leans and 11-11-1 on guesses).

No. 1 seed Purdue -8.5 vs. No. 11 seed NC State, over/under: 146.5. The Boilermakers faced the toughest Sweet 16 and Elite Eight path of any of the Final Four teams, and passed with flying colors. Both No. 2 seed Tennessee and No. 5 seed Gonzaga were playing like a top-10 team in the nation, and while Purdue didn’t blow either out, it methodically dismantled both en route to covers. Purdue has quietly been almost as dominant as Connecticut in the tournament. Both are 4-0 against the spread with Purdue having covered by an average of 10 points per game to Connecticut’s 12.5 points per game.

NC State doesn’t look like a good candidate on paper to stop the roll. The Wolfpack have clear defensive shortcomings inside that should be exposed by Zach Edey, who’s averaging 36 points and 11 rebounds per game in the tournament. Edey’s odds to win the Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player at +240 at the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas look a little long. He could even win the award if Purdue loses in the national championship game if he maintains that level of production against both NC State and Connecticut.

Edey has been just as dominant on the defensive end, and it’s difficult to imagine NC State’s engine DJ Burns being able to navigate the 7-foot-4 titan to score as easily as he has the rest of the tournament. The Wolfpack’s offense has been clicking, but it’s still not all that intimidating. Shot Quality’s metrics indicate NC State’s win expectation has been negative in each of its last three games based on the field-goal attempts it’s taken. The Wolfpack’s 80-67 first-round victory over Texas Tech as 5.5-point favorites was flawless, but they’ve gotten all the breaks since then including an overtime win over Oakland in the second round and a second-half crumbling by Duke in the Elite Eight.

NC State is on an unforeseen hot streak, but predecessors fitting a similar description in the tournament typically fall when they run into a truly great opponent. Everything about Purdue screams it’s truly great right now.

Play: Purdue -8.5.

No. 1 seed Connecticut -12 vs. No. 4 seed Alabama, over/under: 160. The Huskies stifled one of the only other teams in the nation with an offense as efficient as their own, the Illinois Fighting Illini, in the Elite Eight with an 77-52 win as 8-point favorites. The same basic challenge awaits with the Crimson Tide. Illinois climbed as high as No. 2 in the nation by several offensive metrics, the same ones that had Alabama rated No. 1 throughout much of the season. But while the overall theme of the two games might be similar, the particulars diverge rather drastically.

Illinois’ attack is all about slashing as it takes a relatively small amount of 3-point shots. The strategy that had served it so well earlier in the tournament backfired against Connecticut. Donovan Clingan, Connecticut’s 7-foot-2 defensive stalwart, did not let anything get by him at the rim but Illinois kept foolishly trying for the entire 40-minute game. It’s doubtful Alabama coach Nate Oats, one of college basketball’s great tactical minds, will approach the challenge of taking on the nation’s best team as stubbornly.

The Crimson Tide tries to penetrate for layups as often as the Illini, but it also hoists a lot more shots beyond the arc and operates at a much faster pace offensively. If someone was designing a team to get Connecticut trouble, it would more likely resemble Alabama than Illinois given the way the former’s style increases variance.

Variance can swing the other way too. There’s a chance Alabama gets embarrassed in this game if its 3-pointers aren’t falling, but on the year, it’s been one of the best jump-shooting teams in the nation. Mark Sears is a top-tier point guard, and it makes no sense that his Most Outstanding Player odds are 25-to-1 while Alabama is only 18-to-1 to win the title.

Like Edey on Purdue, Sears will win the award if Alabama prevails. That doesn’t apply to Connecticut. Clingan looks a little too low at +240 at BetMGM given the fewer defensive opportunities that could await him against Alabama and a potential tough matchup with Edey in the title game. Point guard Tristen Newton has been Connecticut’s leading scorer and best player all year, so getting him at 5-to-1 feels like a bargain. It’s tough to bet all three of Edey, Newton and Sears, but take the best prices available and it builds a strong portfolio.

Let’s lock all three in and revisit how to maneuver Monday ahead of the national championship game — a likely Connecticut vs. Purdue showdown but maybe, just maybe, a shocking Purdue vs. Alabama finale.

Play: Alabama +12.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or