Sunday Sweats: Seven bets to add to your NFL Week 4 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023 | 10:15 p.m.

Justin Herbert broke out of his somewhat slow start to the season in Week 3, and I couldn’t have been happier.

Sunday Sweats was set up for a winning column either way, but the Chargers’ quarterback more than quadrupled the return by leading the league with 405 passing yards. He cashed an 8-to-1 ticket to do so for us, helping to build up a large early profit margin.

But there’s a long way to go with the season, and I want to keep stacking up the victories. And in the case of weekly passing-yard leaders bets, I’m hoping to stack up the victories in similar fashion.

I’m toeing into the same market again this week as part of the “future finding” section, citing eerily similar criteria that I used on Herbert to hopefully uncover this week’s leader.

Read below to find out who it is along with bets in all seven of Sunday Sweats’ usual categories. Lines are the best currently available at publication time in Las Vegas with the sports book noted. Plays from other betting columns will be linked and tracked here at the bottom of the page. Check back Sunday morning for an additional prop in the Raiders’ gameday preview that will also be tracked as part of the Sunday Sweats.

Tasty Total (3-0, $600): Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers over 46.5 (Boyd Sports)

$220 to win $200

It makes no sense that the Vikings sit at 1-2 on the year to the under. A failure to finish drives and a series of unfortunate turnovers has contributed to the results but those factors should flip the other way eventually. Minnesota has one of the better offenses in the league, and one of the worst defenses. It’s an over team, such an over team that Carolina should be able to score more than it’s being projected for here too. Before everyone buries rookie quarterback Bryce Young, remember he’s only gone up against the Saints and Falcons. Those are likely to finish as two of the top 10 defenses in the league this year. The Vikings should get out to a lead, and the Panthers should be capable of marching down the field and putting points up in a comeback attempt. This final score will likely be in the 50s.  

Two- (Or Three)-Team Teaser (1-2, -$130): Baltimore Ravens +7.5 & New York Giants +8 at  120 (Caesars/William Hill)

$240 to win $200

The Ravens don’t lose divisional games by more than a touchdown under coach John Harbuagh. Yes, they’re pretty beaten-up again this week but the Browns aren’t 100% on the health front either. Deshaun Watson will likely play but he didn’t finish Cleveland’s last practice of the week and is listed as questionable. Baltimore won’t make it easy on him. The Monday Night Football game between the Giants and Seahawks seems similarly evenly-matched. Either the Seahawks or the Giants could win, but neither side is likely to pull away until the final few minutes. There were a ton of standard teaser options through the 3 and 7 earlier this week, but these are two of the only ones left before kickoff. Luckily, they both look valuable.  

Moneyline Parlay (1-2, $570): Buffalo Bills, New Orleans Saints & Los Angeles Chargers at +264 (STN Sports)

$100 to win $264

File this under another non-creative wager. These are the three favorites I made “plays” in the pick’em, and three days later, I still don’t think their lines are quite right. Why not tie them all together and hope for the best? STN Sports slightly edges a couple other competitors in offering the best price, mostly as a function of listing the Bills as only -145 (i.e. risking $145 to win $100) against the Buccaneers. That’s not enough. The Saints’ -180 price is slightly below market consensus too and should be more towards -200. That applies if it’s either Derek Carr or Jameis Winston starting at quarterback. Meanwhile, the Chargers only raised from -220 to -260 with the news earlier today that Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell would start in place of Jimmy Garoppolo. “Jimmy G” hasn’t played well the last two weeks but he still represents a bigger improvement than that line move represents.

Player Prop (4-2, $306): Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown at +320 (Caesars/William Hill)

$100 to win $320

Don’t give up on the local Faith Lutheran product just yet. Buffalo hyped Kincaid as a big-time day-one weapon for its offense but the first-round pick out of Utah has gotten off to a relatively slow start. That doesn’t bother me; it’s only three games. Kincaid didn’t seem to be a big part of the game plan in last week’s blowout win over Washington but that’s because he didn’t need to be. The Bills could use surehanded physicality over the middle of the field better here against the Dolphins. The way they talked up Kincaid all summer couldn’t have just been empty words. They probably have some looks designed for him, and what better place to use them than against an AFC East divisional rival in what might be the biggest regular-season game of the year?

Lookahead Line (0-2, -$440): Minnesota Vikings +6.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$275 to win $250

The Vikings weren’t nearly as strong as their 13-4 record a year ago, and now they’re not nearly as poor as their 0-3 start to this season. Even against the defending Super Bowl champions, they shouldn’t be a touchdown underdog at home. The Vikings’ offense can hang with any team, and the Chiefs’ unit hasn’t exactly been in vintage form outside of a slaughter on the lowly Bears in Week 3. I make this number right in between 3 and 3.5, meaning there’s a huge amount of value based on my number. Maybe that’s too aggressive, but I don’t see the spread being this high going into next week’s game.  

Future Finding (1-0, $800): Tua Tagovailoa to lead Week 4 Sunday and Monday games in passing yards at 8-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)

$100 to win $800

My working theory is that these weekly-leader markets, at least in some sports books, price the mid- to high-range too shortly and the top too long. Tagovailoa already leads the NFL in passing yards and now he’s going to into a game with the largest total on the board as an underdog. There’s a good chance he’s chucking down the field for 60 minutes and increasing his lead at the top of the statistical category. If I was running the sports book, I wouldn’t offer Tagovailoa at any longer than 5-to-1 odds. The Bills should win this game, and might even get out to a big lead, but the Dolphins aren’t just going to fold. They’re going to keep spreading the field and asking their quarterback to get the ball to their playmakers in space. I’ll just hope he does it enough times to cash an 8-to-1 ticket for the second week in a row in this category.

Non-football Play (2-1, $150): Ryan Blaney head-to-head in YellaWood 500 vs. Chris Buescher -110 (SuperBook)

$220 to win $200

I’m back on my stuff. If you’ve read any of my NASCAR bets going into a superspeedway race, it’s likely they’ve been backing Blaney. Anyone can get in an accident at tracks like Talladega and Daytona but there’s a select few number of drivers — namely Blaney, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski — who stand out a little above the rest. Buescher might be pushing to get into that category after winning at Daytona last month, but Blaney’s track record is a little longer and more proven. He’s avoided trouble regularly at Talladega in the past, and I’ll hope he can do it again this weekend. 

Sunday Sweats year to date: 11-9, $1,856

Weekend betting columns year to date: 108-129-3, $10,715

Weekend betting columns all-time: 586-624-10, $29,224 

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); Atlanta Braves at 5-to-1 to win the National League ($300 to win $1,500; Atlanta Braves at 10-to-1 to win the World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Buffalo Bills at 9-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($300 to win $2,700); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000) Las Vegas Aces to win WNBA Championship at -115 ($575 to win $500); William Byron to win NASCAR Cup Series championship at +750 ($300 to win $2,250); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Mississippi State under 6.5 wins at -145 ($435 to win $300) Colorado under 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Miami over 7.5 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Myles Garrett to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year ($300 to win $2,400); Florida over 5.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); Kentucky over 7 wins at +110 ($200 to win $220); Mississippi State under 6 wins at Even money ($100 to win $100); Oklahoma State over 6 wins at -140 ($280 to win $200); Texas Tech under 7.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); UCF over 7 wins at Even money ($200 to win $200); West Virginia under 5.5 wins at -180 ($360 to win $200); Air Force to win the Mountain West at 5-to-1 ($200 to win $1,000); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -120 ($120 to win $100); Oregon State under 8.5 wins at -135 ($135 to win $100); USC under 10 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Washington over 9 wins at -120 ($180 to win $150); Ohio State over 10.5 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Penn State under 9.5 wins at +130 ($150 to win $215); Iowa under 8.5 wins at -115 ($230 to win $200); Nebraska under 6.5 wins at -110 ($220 to win $200); Purdue over 4.5 wins at -140 ($210 to win $150); Duke under 6 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Miami over 7.5 wins at +116 ($200 to win $232); North Carolina under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Syracuse over 6 wins at +105 ($200 to win $210); Boise State under 8.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); New Mexico over 3 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Fresno State under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Hawaii over 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950); Miami Dolphins to not make the playoffs at +105 ($300 to win $315); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +850 ($200 to win $1,950); Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards at +550 ($200 to win $1,100); Europe to win the Ryder Cup at +120 ($200 to win $240); San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -165 ($660 to win $400); Western Kentucky to win Conference USA at +110 ($500 to win $550); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at -190 ($570 to win $300); New York Giants +2 vs. Seattle Seahawks ($220 to win $200)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or