Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 4 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023 | 2 a.m.

The two best teams in the NFL by multiple measures square off in the marquee game of Week 4.

Both Aaron Schatz’s DVOA ratings and expected points added (EPA) per play rate the Buffalo Bills as the top performing side in the league through three weeks trailed closely by the Miami Dolphins in second. The first of two meetings this season between the AFC East rivals occurs at 10 a.m. Sunday in Buffalo.

The Bills climbing to the No. 1 slot in arguably the two best all-encompassing metrics might come as a surprise to most fans considering they already lost a game, 22-16 to the Jets on Monday Night Football in Week 1. The particulars of that game meant the Bills were dinged more by public perception than efficiency numbers, however, as they far outperformed the Jets in the aggregate.

They mainly lost as a result of four ill-timed turnovers and the Jets’ game-winning punt return in overtime. Such splashy moments obviously play a huge role in determining the outcome of one game but they don’t tend to hold much predictive value going forward.

Fewer would take exception to the Dolphins’ status at the top of the league after they’ve scored 130 total points in winning each of their first three games. But it’s worth noting, despite last week’s 50-point win over the Broncos, Miami’s scoring margin is only three points better than Buffalo’s.

Even those who disagree with the 1-2 distinction can’t deny Miami’s trip to Buffalo as 2.5-point underdogs sets up as a terrific showdown. The top two teams in DVOA on a particular week haven’t met in the regular season since 2019 when the Los Angeles Rams won a 54-51 shootout with the Kansas City Chiefs as 1-point favorites.    

That’s a lot for Dolphins at Bills to live up to, but the matchup deserves that level of hype.

Read below to find picks on the headlining affair and every other game on the schedule. Games are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with individual records attached. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record for the year stands at 20-28 overall after an ugly 5-11 showing in Week 3.

Plays (9-7)

Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins Notice that the Bills are first, not second, in the aforementioned statistical measures? If they don’t drop an all-time fluky loss to the Jets in Week 1, this number is -3.5. I’ve picked against the Dolphins every week, and if they crush me again, a moratorium might need to be put in place but this looks like a terrific spot for the home team with a more complete roster.

New Orleans Saints -3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Derek Carr’s shoulder injury is keeping this spread depressed, but the Saints shouldn’t drop off too much with a full week to build a gameplan around longtime backup Jameis Winston. New Orleans’ defense also looks like one of the best in the league, having given up only 4.6 yards per play so far this season.   

Green Bay Packers +1.5 vs. Detroit Lions The Packers were vastly shorthanded in last week’s 18-17 comeback victory over the Saints as 1-point underdogs, but it’s likely that at least a couple key injured players (cornerback Jaire Alexander and wide receiver Christian Watson) return for tonight. At full strength, these teams are pretty evenly-matched, and if the young Packers hit their ceiling, they could have an edge.

Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders This number was Los Angeles -4 on the lookahead line a week ago, and a 1.5-point adjustment through non-key numbers is not enough given the Raiders’ injury situation at quarterback. With Jimmy Garoppolo in the concussion protocol, Brian Hoyer is favored to start and there’s little chance he can give the Raiders a real shot up against Chargers counterpart Justin Herbert.  

New York Giants pick’em vs. Seattle Seahawks The third- and fourth-ranked teams by EPA per play? The San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys, both of whom crushed the Giants in the first three weeks of the season. New York might be getting judged too harshly for their 1-2 straight-up and against the spread start to the season considering the tough slate of opponents.

Leans (7-8)

Dallas Cowboys -6.5 vs. New England Patriots The Cowboys’ 28-16 loss to the Cardinals as an 11-point favorite last week feels more like a one-off aberration than a long-term cause for concern. Dallas’ defense has been a top-five unit in the NFL for three seasons now, and New England rates last in the league this year with only three plays having gone for more than 20 yards. It’s hard to see the Patriots being able to score much at AT&T Stadium.  

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. Atlanta Falcons in London Both offenses are in a rut, but there should be more confidence in Jacksonville turning it around given the potential quarterback Trevor Lawrence showed late last year and the addition of gamebreaking receiver Calvin Ridley. Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder sits 29^th in the league in QBR and can’t be trusted to keep up with Lawrence if the latter breaks out.

Chicago Bears +3.5 vs. Denver Broncos Not surprisingly, these are the NFL’s two worst teams by EPA per play. And the Broncos just barely rate above the Bears. There’s not been enough to separate these teams by either the eye test or the efficiency numbers for the spread to sit above a field goal.    

Washington Commanders +8.5 at Philadelphia Eagles Based on last week’s results — the Eagles smashing the Buccaneers 25-11 as 5.5-point favorites and the Commanders getting stomped by the Bills 37-3 as 5-point underdogs — this number is fair. But Washington had shown some promise in the first two weeks while Philadelphia looked slightly declined from last year’s NFC championship team, and it was only a year ago when the former upset the latter 32-21 on the road.

Arizona Cardinals +14 at San Francisco 49ers The Cardinals, along with the Dolphins, have been the best bet in the NFL at 3-0 against the spread. They’re not nearly the disaster everyone was making them out to be coming into the season. I’m never looking to lay two touchdowns early in the season, especially not against a team that’s shown some competence.

Guesses (4-13)

Indianapolis Colts -1 vs. Los Angeles Rams The Colts were fortunate to knock off the Ravens last week 22-19 as 8-point underdogs despite gaining only 3.9 yards per play. But their offense figures to get a boost from the return of quarterback Anthony Richardson, and the Rams are off a short week on Monday Night Football where they must manage back-to-back road games.

Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 at Tennessee Titans Cincinnati’s 19-16 win over the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football was more encouraging than the push of the 3-point spread may indicate. It showed that both the Bengals’ somewhat-rebuilt defense is coalescing and quarterback Joe Burrow is figuring out how to manage his calf injury, two positives that should have been enough to at least push this spread to 3.    

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Houston Texans It’s easy to get excited about the Texans off last week’s 37-17 upset victory at the Jaguars behind prolific rookie passer CJ Stroud, but the buzz might have gone too far. This line was Pittsburgh -4.5 a week ago, and the Steelers have now won two in a row after holding on against the Raiders on Sunday Night Football.  

Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens The number is exactly right given the Ravens’ considerable injury report. Some sports books are juicing the -2.5 to -115 (i.e. risking $115 to win $100), however, to hint that the spread is more likely to get to -3 than move the other way. It’s therefore more advisable to lock in what could become a value number later in the week now.

Carolina Panthers +3.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings It’s a choice between two evils — Either back the listless Panthers or lay the dreaded 3.5 points. The Vikings haven’t been all that much better than the Panthers — especially on defense where they’ve been one of worst teams in the league — so making a pick on the right side of the key number might be the better strategy here.  

Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 at New York Jets This is another spread that sits exactly on my fair price, and while there’s a case to be made for the Jets because of their defense, it can only go so far. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has routinely solved the NFL’s best defense throughout his career en route to a profitable 53-42-2 against the spread record as a starter.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or