Sunday Sweats: Seven bets to add to your NFL Week 3 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023 | 6:30 p.m.

It’s bound to be a terrific NFL Sunday when the slate finishes in Las Vegas.

Two of the most popular professional football franchises of all time clash at Allegiant Stadium in the NFL’s nightcap at 5:20 p.m. when the Raiders host the Pittsburgh Steelers. The betting handle for that game will be massive, surely the biggest of the day, for local sports books but there are plenty of wagers to place before then.

Find seven of the more exotic variety below in this week’s Sunday Sweats.

Read below for bets in all seven of Sunday Sweats’ usual categories. Lines are the best currently available at publication time in Las Vegas with the sports book noted. Plays from other betting columns will be linked and tracked here at the bottom of the page. Check back Sunday morning for an additional prop in the Raiders’ gameday preview that will also be tracked as part of the Sunday Sweats.

Tasty Total (2-0, $400): Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 46 (STN Sports)

$220 to win $200

Both these teams’ offenses have dropped off significantly since last year from an efficiency perspective, though you might not realize that if looking solely at their final scores. They’re both 2-0 and have seen three of their four combined games go over. Some regression may come on Monday Night Football. This should be a more defensive battle with Philadelphia having a big edge on the defensive line and Tampa Bay still fielding an above-average secondary to match up with the visitors’ deep receiving corps. I made this total 43, and with STN Sports lower than the rest of the market, there’s currently plenty of room for a bet.  

Two (Or Three)-Team Teaser (1-1, $20): Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5, Pittsburgh Steelers +8.5 & Los Angeles Rams +8.5 at +160 (BetMGM)

$150 to win $240

Teasers were the best moneymaking opportunity available last week, and Talking Points luckily took advantage by cashing a couple. Doesn’t it kind of feel like this is the week where they backfire though? That’s at least the case to me, as I don’t have as much confidence in nearly as many of the sides that are available to tease through the three and the seven. The Jets +8.5 against the Patriots and the Ravens -2 against the Colts both fit the parameters, but I couldn’t bring myself to use them. I liked the Jaguars, Steelers and Rams as better options, but struggled to pare it down to two sides for the traditional -120 two-teamer. Mathematically, the +160 three-teamer is almost as valuable so let’s just tie them all together and hope the teaser tear rages on for another week.   

Moneyline Parlay (1-1, $670): Los Angeles Chargers & Atlanta Falcons at +402 (South Point)

$100 to win $402

Each of the first two bets require waiting until Monday night, so let’s get to more direct satisfaction with the next two categories. These are the two underdogs I like best on Sunday’s 10 a.m. slate of games, and South Point has the best price in Nevada on the Chargers (+105) and an above-average offering on the Falcons (+145). The host Lions are far more explosive than the Falcons, but they’re dealing with a number of injuries and a reeling defense. Atlanta continues to be slightly undervalued, perhaps with the wide distrust in second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder. I’m hoping talent wins out in the Chargers’ trip to the Vikings. It’s priced about where it should be, but I’d lean instead to Los Angeles being the slight favorite. The Chargers’ defense has been the worst in the league so far but it’s got to improve a little bit, right?

Player Prop (2-2, -$94): Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown at -105 (Boyd Sports)

$210 to win $200

Maybe the Chargers’ defense won’t improve going up against the reigning Offensive Player of the Year. Jefferson leaves a dent against whomever he faces, and it could be a significant one against Los Angeles. He’s yet to score a touchdown this year, continuing on a trend from last year that saw him only find the end zone eight times, but it feels more like randomness than some shortcoming on his part. Jefferson had what looked to be a sure score against the Eagles on Thursday Night Football last week but fumbled into the end zone for a touchback. This game has the highest total on the board, at over/under 54 points, and the game with the highest total on the board should have the biggest weapon favored by a lower price than this to put up six points at some juncture of the game.

Lookahead Line (0-1, -$220): New York Giants +2 vs. Seattle Seahawks (Caesars/William Hill)

$220 to win $200

Let’s give the Giants a little bit of a break. Yes, they were blown out in two of their first three games but the victors — the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys — look like the two best teams in the league. Now New York gets extra time to prepare going back East off a Thursday Night Football loss to the 49ers. The Giants would have been a slight favorite in this game at the end of last year, and not enough has changed to flip the spread to the Seahawks’ side. This is also a bet on reigning NFL Coach of the Year Brian Daboll concocting the right game plan, an area where he’s continually proved his mettle.   

Future Finding (0-0, $0): Justin Herbert to lead league in passing yards in Sunday and Monday Week 3 games at 8-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)

$100 to win $800

I keep going back to this game, but why not? It’s going to be a lot of fun and practically guarantees fireworks. Getting action down feels mandatory. It’s always difficult to hit these week-by-week index props, but Herbert’s price feels a bit inflated after he started the season with a relatively modest average of 267 passing yards per game. That should fly upwards for the rest of the year, and this might be where it starts. Herbert has been the second-most prolific passer in the NFL over the past three seasons, behind the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes, and sits as an underdog in what’s projected as the highest-scoring game of the week. That’s a formula that should lead to him being at the top of these odds every time.

Non-football play (1-1, $0): Las Vegas Aces -10 vs. Dallas Wings (Caesars/William Hill)

$165 to win $150

Call it learning my lesson of betting against the hometown Aces in the playoffs. I took +18 with the Chicago Sky their last time out, and never stood much of a chance. There’s always talk in the NBA about how certain teams flip a switch and amp it up in the playoffs, and who’s to say there’s not a similar phenomenon in the WNBA? It sure looks like with the defending champion Aces, which somewhat coasted down the stretch of the regular season but is no longer messing around now. The Aces were 11-point favorites the last time they hosted the Wings in the regular season, and there’s no reason to justify the spread dropping a point since then.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 7-6, $776

Weekend betting columns year to date: 104-126-3, $9,635

Weekend betting columns all-time: 582-621-10, $28,144 

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); Atlanta Braves at 5-to-1 to win the National League ($300 to win $1,500; Atlanta Braves at 10-to-1 to win the World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Buffalo Bills at 9-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($300 to win $2,700); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000) Las Vegas Aces to win WNBA Championship at -115 ($575 to win $500); William Byron to win NASCAR Cup Series championship at +750 ($300 to win $2,250); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Mississippi State under 6.5 wins at -145 ($435 to win $300) Colorado under 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Miami over 7.5 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Myles Garrett to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year ($300 to win $2,400); Florida over 5.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); Kentucky over 7 wins at +110 ($200 to win $220); Mississippi State under 6 wins at Even money ($100 to win $100); Oklahoma State over 6 wins at -140 ($280 to win $200); Texas Tech under 7.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); UCF over 7 wins at Even money ($200 to win $200); West Virginia under 5.5 wins at -180 ($360 to win $200); Air Force to win the Mountain West at 5-to-1 ($200 to win $1,000); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -120 ($120 to win $100); Oregon State under 8.5 wins at -135 ($135 to win $100); USC under 10 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Washington over 9 wins at -120 ($180 to win $150); Ohio State over 10.5 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Penn State under 9.5 wins at +130 ($150 to win $215); Iowa under 8.5 wins at -115 ($230 to win $200); Nebraska under 6.5 wins at -110 ($220 to win $200); Purdue over 4.5 wins at -140 ($210 to win $150); Duke under 6 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Miami over 7.5 wins at +116 ($200 to win $232); North Carolina under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Syracuse over 6 wins at +105 ($200 to win $210); Boise State under 8.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); New Mexico over 3 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Fresno State under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Hawaii over 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950); Miami Dolphins to not make the playoffs at +105 ($300 to win $315); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +850 ($200 to win $1,950); Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards at +550 ($200 to win $1,100); Europe to win the Ryder Cup at +120 ($200 to win $240); San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -165 ($660 to win $400); Western Kentucky to win Conference USA at +110 ($500 to win $550); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at -190 ($570 to win $300); Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 vs. Houston Texans ($220 to win $200)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or