Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 3 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 21, 2023 | 2 a.m.

One of the talks of the NFL at this time a year ago was the Miami Dolphins after a hot start under new coach Mike McDaniel that showcased a sky-high offensive potential.  

History is repeating in a grander fashion this season. The Dolphins are again 2-0, but with both wins coming on the road and chock full of big plays, the betting market is taking them even more seriously now that they’ve built up a track record of success.

Miami is the big mover in NFL future markets so far. And more specifically, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the biggest mover.

Tagovailoa has already cracked what was priced as a big three of MVP candidates coming into the season — Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Bills quarterback Josh Allen. The fourth-year passer out of Alabama has surpassed all of them in odds to win the award at some sports books, including Boyd Sports where he’s 5-to-1, and sits at least tied equally with Mahomes at the top elsewhere.

The Dolphins are now as low as 8-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, at STN Sports, after reaching as high as 25-to-1 in the offseason. The interest in them shouldn’t stop any time soon considering they project as at least touchdown favorites in three of their next four games.

It’s a team I haven’t handicapped well after being against them in each of the first two weeks. Will the skepticism continue with a Week 3 home-opener matchup against the Denver Broncos?

Read below to find out with picks of every game on the schedule. Games are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with individual records attached. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record for the year stands at 15-17 overall, though the only struggles have thankfully happened in the “guesses” category.

Plays (7-4)

Green Bay Packers -2 vs. New Orleans Saints New Orleans’ defense sure is getting a lot of praise for beating up on a pair of offenses that will likely wind up at the very bottom of the league efficiency-wise in Carolina and Tennessee. The Saints will get their first real offensive challenge this week. Don’t look now but quarterback Jordan Love is the second-ranked quarterback in the league by expected points added per play through two weeks.     

Cleveland Browns -3 vs. Tennessee Titans This line dropped 1.5 points onto a key number after the Browns’ turnover-plagued 26-22 Monday Night Football loss to the Steelers where they lost star running back Nick Chubb for the year. That feels like way too much of a fall. The Browns still have edges against the Titans all over the field, especially on defense.

Indianapolis Colts +8 at Baltimore Ravens The Ravens looked terrific in a 27-24 upset win over the Bengals but that doesn’t change the fact that they’re dealing with perhaps the NFL’s most impactful set of injuries. It’s going to catch up to them at some point, and the 2-0 start may offer the opportunity to sell high. Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson may be out in the concussion protocol, which would change the game plan, but the overall quality at the position doesn’t dip much if Gardner Minshew has to make a spot start.

Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers It’s too bad the plus-price attached to the Raiders at open didn’t last long because that would have been the best bet of the week. Las Vegas may still be worth a smaller play at fairer odds of anything less than 3 given how poor Pittsburgh has looked. The Steelers are dead-last in the league in EPA per play and had no business beating the Browns on Monday Night Football if it wasn’t for a couple braindead plays by Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles The Eagles are getting outgained by .7 yards per play through two games. In other words, they’re not yet on the level of the team that fell minutes away from winning the Super Bowl in February. Likewise, Tampa Bay is not as strong as its 2-0 record at -.3 net yards per play but it’s not the team laying more than a field goal on the road here. This line is too high.   

Leans (7-4)

Atlanta Falcons +3.5 at Detroit Lions A somewhat fortunate one-point, season-opening win over a short-handed Chiefs’ team to start the year continues to color perception on the Lions too highly. The Falcons are significantly better than the Lions by Aaron Schatz's DVOA ratings, EPA per play and net yards per play through two games and therefore shouldn’t be getting more than field goal on the point spread.    

Denver Broncos +7 at Miami Dolphins Shops like STN Sports that have reached the full 7 have gone a bit too far as the Broncos aren’t as bad as either they’re being regarded or their 0-2 record indicates. Imagine if they don’t miss an extra point in a 17-16 Week 1 loss to the Raiders and then convert on a two-point attempt to force overtime in last week’s 35-33 loss to the Commanders? They could just as easily be 2-0.  

New York Jets +3 at New England Patriots These two teams aren’t all that dissimilar with high-ceiling defenses and shoddy offenses. The Jets are undoubtedly worse in the latter category with quarterback Zach Wilson at the helm, but worse enough to be a field-goal underdog at home? That feels like a stretch; this number should be closer to pick’em.

Carolina Panthers +6 at Seattle Seahawks The Panthers’ offense looks incredibly rough so far but the Seahawks’ defense is a clear step down from their first pair of opponents, the Falcons and Saints. The eye test is unlikely to lead anyone to bet on the Panthers, but data is a more efficient way to form judgments. And any data compiled about these two teams would indicate this is too many points.   

Guesses (1-9)

New York Giants +10 at San Francisco 49ers What if the Giants’ offense found something and got into a rhythm it could carry over in the second-half of their massive comeback to erase a three-touchdown deficit in last week’s 31-28 win over the Cardinals?  It's far from certain, but at least possible and therefore worth taking this high of a number.   

Chicago Bears +13 at Kansas City Chiefs It may sound crazy to say  for a team quarterbacked by Patrick Mahomes, but it’s hard to trust the Chiefs’ offense to cover a large line right now. The Chiefs will get it together — and Mahomes probably doesn’t even deserve to be unseated as the MVP favorite given that knowledge — but they’re still not in championship form yet despite downing the Jaguars on the road last week.   

Los Angeles Chargers +1 at Minnesota Vikings Both offenses are outstanding and surely set up to score on each other, hence the Week 4-high over/under total of 54 points. So this may come down to which defense a bettor can trust more to get the rare stop at the end of the game. And if talent wins out, it should be the Chargers, which have vastly underachieved but have the pieces to field a decent defense.  

Dallas Cowboys -11.5 at Arizona Cardinals The betting market typically compresses the gap between the best teams and worst teams until mid- to late points of the season, and this might be an opportunity to take advantage of that hesitance. It’s a big number but there’s a strong case to be made that this game features the NFL’s best team (Dallas is currently first in both Aaron Schatz’s DAVE and DVOA ratings) against its worst (Arizona is 30^th by DAVE).   

Buffalo Bills -6.5 at Washington Commanders The number is exactly where it should be but the variance feels higher on the Washington side with so much still unknown about young quarterback Sam Howell going into his third career start. He played well and led a comeback last week in Denver, but going up against a Buffalo pass defense that’s been the best in the NFL collectively over the last three years might be more of a test.  

Jacksonville Jaguars -9 vs. Houston Texans The Jaguars’ defensive line looks like it’s on the way to reaching its potential and could absolutely feast against the Texans’ beaten-up, makeshift offensive line this week. Failing to score a touchdown in last week’s loss to the Chiefs isn’t too much of a concern for the Jaguars’ offense either considering they were unlucky to go 0-for-3 in the red zone. The number is fair right now, however, and if it climbed to 10 by kickoff, Houston might be worth a look.     

Cincinnati Bengals -2 vs. Los Angeles Rams This handicap is completely dependent on whether Joe Burrow continues to fight through his calf injury to play. If he does, even in a likely limited fashion, the spread will rise to at least the other side of 3. If he doesn’t, it will drop but likely not too much further.  

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or