Sunday Sweats: Seven bets to add to your NFL Week 2 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023 | 5 p.m.

Sometimes it only takes one.

Sunday Sweats whiffed on last Sunday’s slate with one exception but luckily the exception was the longest-shot wager on the docket. A high-priced moneyline parlay pairing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams wiped out nearly all the other losses and got the column to around even.

Then an under bet on Monday Night Football between the Bills and Jets pushed it into a small profit. I’m looking for a smoother victory in Week 2, where one particular underdog could also set Sunday Sweats up for more success going forward.

Read below for bets in all seven of Sunday Sweats’ usual categories. Lines are the best currently available at publication time in Las Vegas with the sports book noted. Plays from the Weekend Wagers column and other stories will be linked and tracked here at the bottom of the page. Check back Sunday morning for an additional prop in the Raiders’ gameday preview that will also be tracked as part of the Sunday Sweats.

Tasty Total (1-0, $200): Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 40.5 (Caesars/William Hill)

$220 to win $200

The lack of points across the NFL was one of the big takeaways in Week 1 with unders going 12-4 but I don’t think the trend will persist. Offenses should be more in sync this week. I’m looking more towards overs. This might be one of the best ones on the board, especially with Caesars a touch lower than the rest of the market. Chicago’s defense is horrendous, and Tampa Bay still has enough playmakers – ­particularly in the receiving corps – to put up points. The Buccaneers are a little better off defensively but this isn’t a great matchup for them. They were slightly below average on the ground last year and that’s the one area where the Bears are at least competent. This total should be closer to the NFL average of 45 points.

Two (Or Three)-Team Teaser (0-1, -$180): Tennessee Titans +8.5 & Dallas Cowboys -2.5 at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)

$240 to win $200

Yes, the Jets’ defense looked as strong as advertised in their 22-16 Monday Night Football victory over the Bills. But a few teams should be able to crack it, and the Cowboys are among that group. Dallas’ offense didn’t have to do much in a 40-0  Sunday Night Football victory over the New York Giants but it will be much more formidable going forward. Going through the three and seven to only need a small victory against the Zach Wilson-led Jets provides big-time value. The Titans, on the other hand, may lose to the Chargers but not by this much. I make the line around pick’em to begin with so to shoot up nearly 10 points from the true price sounds appealing.

Moneyline Parlay (1-0, $770): Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Browns at +992 (STN Sports)

$100 to win $992

Come on, Jaguars. Get through the defending-champion Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday to give us a sweat on the new curiously-planned dual-broadcasted Monday night games. I think Jacksonville has a great chance, certainly one better than STN’s +195 moneyline price implies. Jacksonville has one of the best offenses in the league, and the defense has enough talent that it shouldn’t be counted out just yet. STN has the best price on the Jaguars, along with discounted tags on the Panthers (at +145) and Browns (at -140). I don’t think we’ve seen either the ceiling on the Browns or the floor on the Steelers through one week. The Panthers are the most outmatched team on this parlay but the Saints’ defense is a drop down from the Falcons’ unit that beat them up in a 24-10 Week 1 loss. Carolina should have a much better shot for a win at home in primetime.

Player Prop (0-2, -$494): Drake London over 44.5 receiving yards at -104 (Caesars/William Hill)

$208 to win $200

There’s buying low, and then there’s really plunging deep down into the dollar bin. This is a case of the latter. The Falcons’ second-year receiver burned a lot of bettors and fantasy players last week with no catches and only one target. But it wasn’t his fault. Atlanta was run-first as expected but even more conservative than advertised. The Falcons should open it up a bit more in what could be a higher-scoring game against the Packers. London’s peripheral statistics are all encouraging. He gets open and can make plays. Let’s just hope Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder can get the ball to him.

Lookahead Line (0-0, $0): Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 vs. Houston Texans in Week 3 (Caears/William Hill)

$220 to win $200

Houston’s defense looked somewhat promising in a 25-9 loss to Baltimore to start the season, but its offense may rival Arizona’s as the worst in the league. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud won’t be able to keep up with the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence with an injury-plagued offensive line and talent-thin set of weapons around him. This line looks short regardless of the results in this week’s games with the two teams, but I’ve convinced myself Jacksonville is knocking off Kansas City and Indianapolis is edging Houston. If that happens, this line may reach – or at least push to reach – Jacksonville -10.

Future Finding (0-0, $0): Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at -190 (STN Sports)

$570 to win $300

If the rest of the column hasn’t given it away yet, I think the market isn’t high enough on Jacksonville. I might not have been either coming into the season. I thought Indianapolis was the team set up to challenge the Jaguars in the AFC South, but for that to happen, the Colts likely needed to win their home against the divisional rival. That opportunity has passed with Jacksonville having escaped Lucas Oil Field with a 31-21 Week 1 victory. The gap between the Jaguars and the rest of their division might be larger than anticipated. This number may go down if the Chiefs beat the Jaguars, but like last week with my bet on the 49ers to win the NFC West, I don’t want to take any chances. This section won’t be all chalk like the last two weeks going forward, but I wanted  to lock what I feel are the two surest division winners in the NFL early.

Non-football play (0-1, -$200): San Francisco Giants -170 vs. Colorado Rockies (Wynn)

$340 to win $200

Yes, this game is at Coors Field and weird things happen at Coors Field. And, yes, the Giants’ lack of offense has made them no fun to bet on all year — especially for those who backed them in a 9-5 loss to start a doubleheader Saturday. But this is Sean Manaea vs. Chris Flexen in the starting pitching matchup. The matchup is a lot more lopsided than these odds suggest. The Giants are also pushing for a playoff spot and aren’t going to take it easy. It can be tricky betting the final couple weeks of Major League Baseball, but the teams playing for something are always preferable to those whose hopes ended long ago.  

Sunday Sweats year to date: 2-4, $96

Weekend betting columns year to date: 97-119-3, $9,835

Weekend betting columns all-time: 575-614-10, $28,344 

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); Atlanta Braves at 5-to-1 to win the National League ($300 to win $1,500; Atlanta Braves at 10-to-1 to win the World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Buffalo Bills at 9-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($300 to win $2,700); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000) Las Vegas Aces to win WNBA Championship at -115 ($575 to win $500); William Byron to win NASCAR Cup Series championship at +750 ($300 to win $2,250); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Mississippi State under 6.5 wins at -145 ($435 to win $300) Colorado under 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Miami over 7.5 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Myles Garrett to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year ($300 to win $2,400); Florida over 5.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); Kentucky over 7 wins at +110 ($200 to win $220); Mississippi State under 6 wins at Even money ($100 to win $100); Oklahoma State over 6 wins at -140 ($280 to win $200); Texas Tech under 7.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); UCF over 7 wins at Even money ($200 to win $200); West Virginia under 5.5 wins at -180 ($360 to win $200); Air Force to win the Mountain West at 5-to-1 ($200 to win $1,000); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -120 ($120 to win $100); Oregon State under 8.5 wins at -135 ($135 to win $100); USC under 10 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Washington over 9 wins at -120 ($180 to win $150); Ohio State over 10.5 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Penn State under 9.5 wins at +130 ($150 to win $215); Iowa under 8.5 wins at -115 ($230 to win $200); Nebraska under 6.5 wins at -110 ($220 to win $200); Purdue over 4.5 wins at -140 ($210 to win $150); Duke under 6 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Miami over 7.5 wins at +116 ($200 to win $232); North Carolina under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Syracuse over 6 wins at +105 ($200 to win $210); Boise State under 8.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); New Mexico over 3 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Fresno State under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Hawaii over 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950); Miami Dolphins to not make the playoffs at +105 ($300 to win $315); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +850 ($200 to win $1,950); Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards at +550 ($200 to win $1,100); Europe to win the Ryder Cup at +120 ($200 to win $240); New England Patriots +2.5 in Week 2 vs. Miami Dolphins ($220 to win $200); San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -165 ($660 to win $400); Two-team, six-point Week 2 teaser: Colts +7.5 and 49ers -1.5 at -125 ($250 to win $200); Chicago Sky +18 vs. Las Vegas Aces in Game 2 ($165 to win $150); Western Kentucky to win Conference USA at +110 ($500 to win $550)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or