Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 2 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 14, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Homefield advantage doesn’t matter anymore.

That’s surely a take everyone has heard thrown around by NFL fans and analysts in recent years, and it’s a claim that gained some clout after Week 1 of this season. Visiting teams ruled the slate, going 10-6 straight-up and 4-12 against the spread.

That’s a microscopic sample size that can’t be used to jump to any conclusions, but there is something to calls of the diminished importance of a team playing in its own stadium based on the betting market. Some high-level bettors adjust as few as one point for home field nowadays after three was a more established baseline as recently as a half-decade ago.

I’m still on the higher end of the equation, applying closer to two points but more for certain venues and situations. And I’m starting to feel like I might be wrong.

This is all weighing on my mind because I like more home teams in Week 2 than I can ever remember on a single slate. Maybe there’s a flaw in my methodology, or maybe the market has overcorrected and home teams are in for upgraded performances going forward.

I’m trying to convince myself of the latter. Let’s see how it goes.    

Find the picks for every Week 2 below. Games are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time. The overall record after one week sits at 9-7.

Plays (4-2)

Atlanta Falcons +2 vs. Green Bay Packers Look out for the rebuilt Atlanta defense, which should quietly climb to be one of the best in the league. The Falcons beat up on the Panthers in Week 1, 24-10 as 3.5-point favorites, just as badly as the Packers squashed the Bears, 38-20 as 1-point underdogs, and yet this line shot up three and a half points in favor of the visitors. Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder may look too conservative, but don’t give up on him yet.

Tennessee Titans +3.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers The Chargers’ rush defense has graded as the worst in the league over the last two years, and Titans coach Mike Vrabel has hinted that Derrick Henry will get a larger workload in Week 2. Meanwhile, Chargers running back Austin Ekeler might be out. This line is only justified if Tennessee has fallen apart, and there’s not enough evidence to count out the historically consistent Vrabel just yet.

Cleveland Browns -2 at Pittsburgh Steelers The Browns have built a powerhouse team in all facets — except maybe oddly at quarterback where they have the player with the highest guaranteed money contract in NFL history in Deshaun Watson — and it would be smart to keep betting them until everyone realizes it. The Steelers are much more flawed especially with an unimaginative offense that was bound to catch up to them at some point; maybe it’s this year.  

New England Patriots +2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins Just because the Dolphins racked up 536 yards and 36 points last week at the Chargers, it doesn’t mean they can do it every week. New England’s defense should be a much more formidable challenge while Miami also has to deal with back-to-back road games after cross-country travel off a game with one of the highest snap counts in the league.  

Arizona Cardinals +6 vs. New York Giants The rush to declare Arizona completely incompetent continues to be more conjecture than fact. The Cardinals could have easily beaten the Commanders in a 20-16 Week 1 loss where the latter only outgained the former by .2 yards per play. This projects to be another close, low-scoring game where it’s extra valuable getting points on the spread. Boyd Sports is offering +6 at -115, which is a better bet mathematically than +5.5 -110 and therefore enough to merit a play.

Leans (4-2)

Carolina Panthers +3.5 vs. New Orleans Saints STN Sports might be the only sports book in the world dealing this game with the half-point hook (albeit with a -119 price tag attached), a generous boost that would be wise to accept. The Panthers are in a better injury situation than the Saints, which are also still without star back Alvin Kamara for three more games due to suspension, and should get a much-needed receiving boost this week with D.J. Chark expected to return.

Denver Broncos -3.5 vs. Washington Commanders Maligned Denver quarterback Russell Wilson at least looked more comfortable in new coach Sean Payton’s offense in the first half of a 17-16 loss to Las Vegas as 3-point favorites last week before tailing off. That’s faint praise but his expectation should be higher than Washington’s Sam Howell, who was mediocre in his debut despite facing an Arizona team priced as the worst in the NFL.

Buffalo Bills -9 vs. Las Vegas Raiders The Jets’ memorable 22-16 victory over the Bills as 2.5-point underdogs on Monday Night Football despite losing Aaron Rodgers to a torn Achilles wasn’t as shocking as it seemed considering New York’s defense has long confounded Buffalo’s offense. Las Vegas’ defense is improved but still mediocre talent-wise and without the personnel to match up well against Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen’s style.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Chicago Bears A number of sports books have dropped this price to a juiced -2.5, which gets the Buccaneers on the verge of playable. The Bears have holes all over the field, and can’t be bet until the market begins to accurately reflect that they’re one of the worst teams in the league.  

Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings The Eagles’ offense looked mostly pedestrian in a fortunate 25-20 victory over the Patriots as 4-point favorites last week, but the Vikings don’t have the defensive personnel to slow them down as much. Minnesota’s defense projected as the worst in the league by Aaron Schatz's DVOA metric coming into the season.

Guesses (1-3)

New York Jets +9.5 at Dallas Cowboys The drop from Rodgers to Zach Wilson is obviously precipitous but the 6.5-point line move in a game projected to be this low scoring (the total is 40.5) might be too rich. These might be the two best defenses in the NFL, and it’s going to be a chore to try to build a double-digit lead.

Detroit Lions -5.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks Seattle looked like one of the worst teams in the league in Week 1 — just as it was pegged to be before a surprise playoff berth last year — and it could get worse. The Seahawks are now dealing with a cluster injury along the offensive line — one that struck with particularly bad timing considering the Lions’ defensive front appears much improved starring the continued development of Aidan Hutchinson.

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens There’s no more value with the extra half-point added everywhere, but this looks like a good spot for Cincinnati to bounce back from a horrendous 24-3 loss to Cleveland as slight favorites in Week 1. Baltimore is extremely banged up, as seems to be the case every year, including losing mainstays such as running back J.K. Dobbins and left tackle Ronnie Stanley last week.

San Francisco 49ers -8 at Los Angeles Rams The market can have a tough time pricing outlier teams early in the season, and the 49ers look like an outlier team to the positive. Quarterback was supposed to be their only question, but if Brock Purdy continues to look like an MVP candidate, then they might be the best team in the league.    

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs The number is right at the moment, but Jacksonville might be worth a small bet if this touches +3.5, which looks more likely than the line falling the other way to -2.5. The market might be slightly behind on Jacksonville, which deserves to be priced as one of the best teams in the AFC, and the potential return of both a not-fully-conditioned Chris Jones and a still-ailing Travis Kelce doesn’t fix all of Kansas City’s problems.   

Houston Texans +1.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts Indianapolis technically kept the game closer with Jacksonville than Houston did with Baltimore last week, but that was entirely due to DeForest Buckner’s fluky fumble-recovery touchdown when most of the Jaguars thought the play was dead. Both rookie quarterback-led teams wound up with a -.4 net yards per play and look pretty even, meaning taking points either way is the smart choice.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or