Weekend wagers: Seven bets to make including a pair of NFL player futures

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Those looking to bet on college football props locally are in for a treat this season.

For the first time ever, individual player wagering appears extensive for college football in Nevada sports books. The new apps launched by Caesars and William Hill increased offerings with player over/unders and touchdown options available on virtually every game.

Paired with Boyd Sports’ perhaps even more populated betting menu and a few scattered wagers elsewhere, and there’s literally never been more ways to bet on college football in town.

I’m not sure that’s a good thing for Talking Points. Any time I’ve waded into college player props in this column or its counterparts, it’s gone poorly.

I know definitively it’s not my strength as a bettor, but with a full slate of college football today for the first time this season, let’s give it another try. Included in the seven wagers below is one prop play on the biggest game of the weekend.

Maybe there will be more to come in future weeks; maybe not. Either way, this column will be making its annual transition into a more football-based piece starting with the NFL next week.

Thanks for following along for another fun, and profitable, run with Weekend Wagers, and I hope you stick around for what’s next.

Read on for this week’s handful of plays. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

UFC (16-21, -$354): Ciryl Gane by KO/TKO/DQ at +120 vs. Sergey Spivak at UFC Paris (Boyd Sports)

$200 to win $240

Sergey Spivac is not Jon Jones. He’s not Francis Ngannou either. I can’t believe I feel the need to type either of those things, but it seems like some are overrating the Moldovan grappler based on line movement. Spivac is taking money in today’s main event matchup, and the main explanation rests in the fact that Gane has lost two of his last three fights. But those came against the two best heavyweight mixed martial artists in the world. Spivak is on a nice run with three straight victories, but he’s not on that level. And if Gane wins, he figures to win by knockout. The gap between his -180 price on the outright moneyline and +120 by knockout is too wide. Gane has more wins by knockout than any other method in his career, and it’s the most likely how this hometown fight ends for him.  

MLB (13-6, $1,690): Houston Astros -170 vs. New York Yankees (Wynn)

$340 to win $200

Yankees starter Luis Severino finally had a couple decent starts after a nightmare season, and now his odds are setting back into their usual place. That means it’s time to start fading him again. Two good outings doesn’t mean Severino is fixed. He’ll be at a big disadvantage here against Houston starter Hunter Brown considering the lineups behind the pair of starters. The Astros are the hottest-hitting team in the league, and there’s no end in sight to their tear. The Yankees are all too reliant on Aaron Judge. Given all the factors, the Astros should be more like a -200 favorite this afternoon at Minute Maid Park.

NASCAR (16-13, $3,630): Chris Buescher at +150 head-to-head in Southern 500 vs. Brad Keselowski (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$200 to win $300

Much to my dismay, Keselowski — whom I bet on to win in last week's column — pushed his teammate Buescher to victory at Daytona last week. What’s to stop Buescher for beating Keselowski again? Granted, Darlington Raceway is a lot different than Daytona as an intermediate oval compared to a superspeedway. Keselowski should even be favored given his history here, but to see -180 next to his name in this matchup feels like a major inflation. Both RFK Racing drivers are in the same equipment and solidly in contention to advance to the next round of the playoffs, which begin on Sunday. Buescher is now one of the hottest drivers in NASCAR with three recent victories, and I’ll gamble on him continuing to keep up the streak.   

NASCAR (16-13, $3,630): Kyle Larson to win Southern 500 at 6-to-1 (STN Sports)

$200 to win $1,200

It hasn’t been a banner year for the 2021 NASCAR Cup champion, but Larson still has one of the faster cars in the garage. And, as far as I’m concerned, he should still be the race favorite to win at any intermediate track with high tire wear. Darlington fits the bill. A lot of his underperformance this year can be chalked up to bad luck as he’s been on the wrong end of some collisions and timing oddities. At some point, it’s going to break the other way. He’s such a weekly contender that I’d be surprised if he didn’t win at least one race during the next couple months of playoff action. Why can’t it be the first?

College football (1-0, $200): Keon Coleman under 60.5 receiving yards at -114 (Boyd Sports)

$114 to win $100

Everyone is concerned about LSU’s secondary. Brian Kelly started the panic when he spoke negatively about the unit at SEC media, but I’m not sure I buy it. Coaches’ news conferences should rarely be taken at face value. The Tigers were productive in the transfer portal this offseason defensively, picking up a couple strong cover cornerbacks, and should give Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis and his receivers more trouble than most are expecting. There’s a lot of hype on Coleman after his arrival from Michigan State in the spring, but the Seminoles also have a deep receiving corps. It’s not easy just to waltz into a new offense and post a big game on first attempt. This number looks a tad high.

NFL (0-1, -$100): Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +850 (Caesars/William Hill)

$200 to win $1,900

Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is priced ahead of Henry in this market. Yes, the same Jonathan Taylor who’s going to miss the first four games of the season on the physically unable to perform list.  For the last several years, it would have been unimaginable to get Henry at this high of a price in the preseason to lead the league in rushing. And, yes, the gargantuan Tennessee Titans runner has aged and gotten hurt a couple times since then. But last year, he only missed one game. Tennessee is going to continue to be a run-first team so it’s difficult to imagine him not getting the opportunities to win his third career rushing title. The betting market is pessimistic on the Titans’ outlook overall but that shouldn’t stop Henry from being the favorite in this category, let alone behind someone who’s not even healthy.    

NFL (0-1, -$100): Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards at +550 (SuperBook)

$200 to win $1,100

I’m buying into the talk that the Chargers’ passing game is going to get a lot more prolific and vertical under new coordinator Kellen Moore. I’m buying into it so much that I think Herbert should edge Patrick Mahomes as the favorite in this market. Alas, Mahomes is much lower at SuperBook — +250. But there’s a good chance Mahomes is playing with the lead more often than Herbert, which is an edge in the latter’s corner as far as sheer volume. Herbert has proven to be more durable than Mahomes as he hasn’t missed a single game in the NFL because of  injury despite hurting his ribs early last season. Herbert has finished second to Mahomes in passing yards in each of the last two seasons, but this might be the year the Chargers’ star eclipses his AFC West rival.    

Weekend betting column year to date: 84-106-3, $6,914 

Weekend betting column all-time: 562-601-10, $25,423 

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); Atlanta Braves at 5-to-1 to win the National League ($300 to win $1,500; Atlanta Braves at 10-to-1 to win the World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Buffalo Bills at 9-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($300 to win $2,700); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); Baltimore Ravens -9 vs. Houston Texans in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Green Bay Packers +2.5 at Chicago Bears in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); LSU -1.5 at -115 vs. Florida State in Week 1 ($345 to win $300); Las Vegas Aces to win WNBA Championship at -115 ($575 to win $500); William Byron to win NASCAR Cup Series championship at +750 ($300 to win $2,250); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Mississippi State under 6.5 wins at -145 ($435 to win $300); US women's national team to win World Cup at +250 ($200 to win $500); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Miami over 7.5 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Myles Garrett to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year ($300 to win $2,400); Florida over 5.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); Kentucky over 7 wins at +110 ($200 to win $220); Mississippi State under 6 wins at Even money ($100 to win $100); Oklahoma State over 6 wins at -140 ($280 to win $200); Texas Tech under 7.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); UCF over 7 wins at Even money ($200 to win $200); West Virginia under 5.5 wins at -180 ($360 to win $200); Cleveland Browns +2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Air Force to win the Mountain West at 5-to-1 ($200 to win $1,000); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -120 ($120 to win $100); Oregon State under 8.5 wins at -135 ($135 to win $100); USC under 10 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Washington over 9 wins at -120 ($180 to win $150); Ohio State over 10.5 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Penn State under 9.5 wins at +130 ($150 to win $215); Iowa under 8.5 wins at -115 ($230 to win $200); Nebraska under 6.5 wins at -110 ($220 to win $200); Purdue over 4.5 wins at -140 ($210 to win $150); Duke under 6 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Miami over 7.5 wins at +116 ($200 to win $232); North Carolina under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Syracuse over 6 wins at +105 ($200 to win $210); Boise State under 8.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); New Mexico over 3 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Fresno State under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Hawaii over 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950); Miami Dolphins to not make the playoffs at +105 ($300 to win $315); Novak Djokovic to win men's US Open at +140 ($300 to win $420); Ons Jabeur to win women's US Open at 28-to-1 ($50 to win $1,400); Week 1 two-team, six-point teaser: Cleveland Browns +8 & Green Bay Packers +8 at -120 ($240 to win $200); SMU to win the AAC at +350 ($300 to win $1,050); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or