College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 9

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023 | 2 a.m.

NCAA rules are one of the focuses of college football this week as fallout continues from the organization’s investigation into national championship favorite Michigan’s alleged sign-stealing scheme.

The Wolverines almost certainly violated an antiquated rule forbidding teams from scouting opponents in person but that’s far from the most backwards bylaw on the NCAA books affecting this season.

The NCAA’s two-year postseason ban on programs as they transition up to Football Bowl Subdivision is completely unjust.

Most promoted teams aren’t in position to compete at the highest level immediately anyway, but two squads are bucking the trend this year and are already bowl eligible — James Madison and Jacksonville State. And yet, neither the Dukes nor the Gamecocks will be able to compete because of the rule.

It’s particularly criminal in the case of James Madison, which saw a waiver to play in the postseason struck down last week.

The Dukes are 7-0 straight-up and should be going for a second straight Sun Belt Conference title, if not a potential New Year’s Six bowl game bid. They have the best record in the Sun Belt East division for the second straight year but will be held out of the championship game in back-to-back campaigns.

If not for the ban, James Madison would have played Troy for the conference crown a year ago — a team it just beat 16-14 as 2.5-point underdogs last month. That game opened conference play and was the Dukes’ first of five straight point-spread cover, currently the longest active streak in the nation.

They’re 15-3 straight-up, 12-6 against the spread since moving up to FBS from the Football Championship Subdivision a year ago.

This is all on my mind because I feel like I pick, if not bet, against the Dukes every week and they continually drag down the pick’em’s overall record.

James Madison coach Curt Cignetti, who was on Nick Saban’s initial staff at Alabama, deserves to be regarded as among the nation’s top-performing head men for his work the past two years. In addition to navigating the move-up, Cignetti had to rebuild with a roster that ranked 112^th in the nation in returning production this season per the SP+ ratings out of 133 FBS teams.

His team just keeps winning anyway. His team just keeps covering anyway.

Have I learned my lesson and am I now ready to jump on the bandwagon going into this week’s game against Old Dominion? You’ll have to read all the way to the bottom of the picks on every Week 9 FBS game to find out.

Find all the picks below. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record picking every game this season stands at 207-214-9 (53-54-1 on plays, 69-72-2 on leans and 85-88-6 on guesses).

Big Games

Oklahoma -10 at Kansas, over/under: 65.5. The Jayhawks have played better than expected with backup quarterback Jason Bean at the helm, and yet are only 2-2 straight-up, 1-3 against the spread in the situation. Kansas needs star quarterback Jalon Daniels back against a team of the Sooners’ caliber and it seems unlikely to happen with coach Lance Leipold describing him as “doubtful to questionable.” Lean: Oklahoma -10.

Georgia -14.5 vs. Florida in Jacksonville, Fla., over/under: 47.5. Florida is 74^th in the nation in expected points added (EPA) per play in pass defense. That’s an issue against a Georgia offense that’s started to throw downfield more as the season progresses with quarterback Carson Beck looking fully capable of picking Florida apart. Lean: Georgia -14.5.

Oregon -6.5 at Utah, over/under: 49. Utah did it again as far as pulling a big upset, edging USC 34-32 as 7.5-point underdogs last week, but it continues to look underwhelming behind an inexplosive offense. The Utes’ 19-game home win streak is boosting up this price, but the Ducks might be the best, or at least most well-rounded, team they’ve faced in the span. Play: Oregon -6.5.

Duke +4 at Louisville, over/under 46.5. Louisville, appropriately sitting at 3-3-1 against the spread, has juggled terrific performances with terrible ones throughout the season. Duke, 4-3 against the spread, has been more consistent and should be able to counter Louisville’s strong defensive line with one of the nation’s best offensive lines. Play: Duke +4.

Tennessee -3.5 at Kentucky, over/under: 51.5. The Wildcats desperately need transfer quarterback Devin Leary, who’s playing well below the level he established at NC State, to start hitting his potential. And it might not be possible with Leary having never looked the same after a long recovery from a torn pectoral injury. Tennessee has been more reliable with more efficient numbers on both sides of th ball. Lean: Tennessee -3.5.

Ohio State -15 at Wisconsin, over/under: 43.5. No one would have predicted this low of a total on this game coming into the season but both offenses have performed well below expectations with a relative lack of explosion. The point spread hasn’t adjusted enough to that reality, as it’s going to be difficult to cover this large of a number in a game that shouldn’t feature many points. Lean: Wisconsin +15.

Colorado +17 at UCLA, over/under: 63.5. Benched UCLA freshman quarterback Dante Moore has Heisman upside long-term in his career but he’s not there yet. A switch to veteran Ethan Garbers led to a 42-7 smashing at Stanford as 17-point favorites last week and has a larger positive impact than the betting market is capturing. Play: UCLA -17.

Oregon State -3 at Arizona, over/under: 56.5. This number is totally fair based on what’s happened in-season so far with Arizona emerging as a revelation, but priors must still hold some weight. The Beavers’ roster was much higher regarded coming into the year, when this spread would have been at least -10. Lean: Oregon State -3.

Big Plays

Syracuse +3 at Virginia Tech, over/under: 47.5. The Orange have looked dreadful in a three-game straight-up and against the spread losing streak but they were extremely beaten up and also playing up a class with games against Clemson, North Carolina and Florida State. They looked much improved when they were healthy at the beginning of the year, and should be healthier here coming off a bye week against a more evenly-matched side. Play: Syracuse +3.

Iowa State -2.5 at Baylor, over/under: 47.5. The young Cyclones have shown immense progress as the season has gone on while the similarly-green Bears appear stuck in the mud. Baylor escaped Cincinnati last week with a 32-29 win as 2.5-point underdogs but were squarely outplayed and had an ultra-fortunate fumble recovery returned for a touchdown. Play: Iowa State -2.5.

BYU +17 at Texas, over/under: 50. This number is four or more points shorter than it would have been a week ago before Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers went down with a shoulder injury. Ewers’ injury may not matter that much, however, as he had been good but not great this season and has a duo of decorated passers behind him in Maalik Murphy and Arch Manning. Play: Texas -17.

Miami (Ohio) +7 at Ohio, over/under: 38.5. This looked like one of the best Group of Five conference showdowns of the year with the winner heavily favored to prevail in the MAC East division. But Miami (Ohio) quarterback Blake Gabbert suffered a season-ending leg injury last week to severely weaken the RedHawks. The spread adjusted three to four points from its projection pre-injury, but Gabbert might be worth even more to the visitors. Play: Ohio -7.

Tulane -11 at Rice, over/under: 54.5. There have been a lot of jokes at the expense of well-traveled quarterback JT Daniels — at his fourth program in six years — but the laughs are contributing to missing just how well he’s playing this year for the Owls. With Daniels at the helm, Rice sits 14^th in the nation in EPA per play offense and 12^th in EPA passing, ahead of higher-regarded Tulane at 59th and 18^th, respectively. Play: Rice +11.

Washington State -6 at Arizona State, over/under: 51. Dropping this line to below a touchdown looks like an overreaction to Arizona State’s hard-fought 15-7 loss to Washington as 28-point underdogs last week where it faced a beaten-up Michael Penix and benefited from a great deal of turnover luck. The Sun Devils remain offensively limited and won’t be able to keep up with the points Cougars quarterback Cam Ward is almost guaranteed to put on the board. Play: Washington State -6.

Other Picks

Play: New Mexico +1.5 at UNR

Play: Fresno State -7.5 vs. UNLV

Play: Marshall -4 at Coastal Carolina

Play: Boston College -14 vs. Connecticut

Play: Southern Miss +17.5 at Appalachian State

Play: Cincinnati +8.5 at Oklahoma State

Lean: Boise State -5 vs. Wyoming

Lean: Miami -18.5 vs. Virginia

Lean: Indiana +33 at Penn State

Lean: Pittsburgh +20.5 at Notre Dame

Lean: California +11.5 at USC

Lean: Memphis -7.5 at North Texas

Lean: Wake Forest +20.5 vs. Florida State

Lean: Eastern Michigan +3 vs. Western Michigan

Lean: East Carolina +19 at UTSA

Lean: Michigan State +7 at Minnesota

Lean: Purdue +2.5 at Nebraska

Lean: Auburn -6.5 vs. Mississippi State

Lean: Troy -4.5 at Texas State

Guess: San Jose State -10 at Hawaii

Guess: Air Force -11.5 at Colorado State

Guess: South Alabama -10 vs. Louisiana

Guess: South Carolina +14 at Texas A&M

Guess: North Carolina -11.5 at Georgia Tech

Guess: Tulsa +21 at SMU

Guess: NC State +10 vs. Clemson

Guess: UCF -7 vs. West Virginia

Guess: Massachusetts +9.5 at Army

Guess: Georgia Southern -1.5 vs. Georgia State

Guess: Washington -26 at Stanford

Guess: Houston +17 at Kansas State

Guess: Vanderbilt +25 at Ole Miss

Guess: UL Monroe -2 vs. Arkansas State

Guess: Northwestern +13.5 vs. Maryland

Guess: Old Dominion +20 at James Madison

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or