Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 7 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Oct. 19, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Scoring plummeted to its lowest level in nearly a decade during last week’s NFL slate, and the decline may not yet be complete.

While the inclement weather that helped hold back offenses in Week 6 forecasts as better for Week 7, the outlook at the sport’s most important position does not. A quarterback injury epidemic has now struck the league to further hamper offenses.

Eight starting quarterbacks for teams playing this weekend are currently on injury reports, and that doesn’t include another (the Colts’ Anthony Richardson) who was shut down for the season for shoulder surgery. There’s lingering uncertainty on who will start for five teams, changing the equation as far as handicapping the schedule.

Bettors are probably feeling like they should have just played all the unders so far this season, or at least last week. Unders went 12-3 in Week 6, improving their season-long record to 57-36.

Teams averaged 18.4 points per game in Week 6, the lowest mark since Week 15 of the 2014 season according to Fox Sports. A new record was set with 23 teams failing to score at least 21 points.

Some bounce-back is inevitable long-term, but don’t necessarily expect it to happen this week. The average total in Week 7’s 14 games is over/under 42.5, about 2.5 points less than the NFL average in scoring over the last two seasons, and that might look a touch high with all the quarterback concerns.

Read below to find picks on the point spread of every Week 7 contest. Games are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with individual records attached. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record for the year stands at 45-49.

Plays (15-15)

Los Angeles Rams -3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers The Steelers have one of the least impressive statistical profiles imaginable for a team with a winning record, and they were arguably outplayed in all three of their victories. They’ll be healthier by getting back reinforcements off a bye week, but their underlying metrics are not nearly strong enough to be getting this few points in a game across the country.

Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Kansas City enjoyed four extra days to prepare for this matchup off of a 19-8 Thursday Night Football win over Denver as 11-point favorites while Los Angeles fell 20-17 to Dallas as 1.5-point underdogs on Monday Night Football. That’s no small advantage, especially not when the Chiefs were already healthier to begin with and playing comfortably better than the Chargers on both sides of the ball.

Minnesota Vikings +7 vs. San Francisco 49ers Positive news has come on the injury front all week for the 49ers but this is a tough spot regardless of who's playing with a back-to-back road trip on the other side of the country. Despite their 2-4 record, the Vikings slot right around NFL average by ratings like Aaron Schatz’s DVOA (16^th) and expected points added per play (18^th) so they should get more respect from the betting market at home.

Leans (17-12)

Chicago Bears +3 vs. Las Vegas Raiders The Raiders’ three victories have come by a total of nine points and all the wins have come against teams with losing records. They also have injury concerns that stretch well beyond quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who’s likely out of the Bears’ game. Las Vegas is better than Chicago but shouldn’t be laying a field goal to any team in the NFL on the road. Wait for a +3.5 to pop back up to actually bet, but the Bears are the only way to look.

Buffalo Bills -8 at New England Patriots The Patriots’ defense hasn’t been the same since losing edge rusher Matthew Judon and cornerback Christian Gonzalez three weeks ago. The Bills’ offense shouldn’t be downgraded too much for their admittedly poor performance in a 14-9 victory over the Giants as 15.5-point favorites where their sluggishness might have been partly to blame on coming off a London trip.

Indianapolis Colts +3 vs. Cleveland Browns Despite the 49ers’ victory, the Browns’ offense still leaves a lot to be desired — no matter if PJ Walker or Deshaun Watson is starting — considering it ranks 28^th in the league at 4.5 yards per play. The Colts have a clear edge on that side of the ball — even with Gardner Minshew now entrenched as the starter for the rest of the season — and haven’t been as much of a liability as expected on defense either.

Arizona Cardinals +8 at Seattle Seahawks A team needs to be unequivocally in the top tier of the NFL to be laying double digits in a division game this early in the season. Seattle, though it’s been better than expected, doesn’t belong in that category largely because it still has defensive issues that could help Arizona stay competitive.

Baltimore Ravens -3 vs. Detroit Lions Detroit’s season-long metrics are a hair better than Baltimore’s but it’s also been healthier and faced a weaker schedule. Several key players have started to return for the Ravens, which should have a higher ceiling than the Lions overall.

Guesses (13-21)

Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 at New Orleans Saints This isn’t a game worth getting involved in until the status of injured Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence is clearer. But, if forced to guess, I think Lawrence will play and he gave a convincing speech about how he’s used to playing through injuries dating back to his high school days. If he’s ruled in, the Jaguars will likely flip to a short favorite.

Green Bay Packers -1 at Denver Broncos Despite their disappointing 2-3 start to the season, the Packers appear to be determined to do everything they can to make a playoff push. That’s more than can be said for Denver, which seems to be selling and ready to ship out more players to the highest bidders ahead of the trade deadline.

Miami Dolphins +2.5 at Philadelphia Eagles The number looks exactly right, but the Eagles’ defensive front hasn’t been disruptive enough to count on them to frustrate Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and the backfield hasn’t been sharp enough to shut down Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill. The Eagles’ potential is as high as any team in the league, and there’s always the chance they realize it on any given week, but the Dolphins have been a level above so far this season.

New York Giants +2.5 vs. Washington Commanders The Giants were 2.5-point favorites in this game coming into the season. Even with as badly as they’ve played and as many injuries as they’ve suffered, a swing all the way to the other side might be slightly too much. This one feels like a coin flip.

Atlanta Falcons +2.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers I can’t quite quit the Falcons, even though they’ve failed to cover five consecutive closing point spreads and are clearly limited from a passing standpoint with quarterback Desmond Ridder. But the rest of their roster quality remains high, and it’s too early to completely ditch priors coming into the season that would have had them as a slight favorite in this spot.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or