College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 8

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Two eras of college football are at risk of passing without Penn State having ever been much of a factor on the national level.

When the sport implemented the Bowl Championship Series National Championship Game beginning in the 1998-1999 season, the Nittany Lions surely would have been one of the favorites to make an early appearance.

It never happened in the 16-year history of the event. The Nittany Lions have similarly never advanced to the four-team College Football Playoff since its inception for the 2014-2015 season and have one last chance to do so this year before expansion (and conference realignment) arrives next year.

The good news is, this year’s squad might arguably be Penn State’s best in the last 25 years. Penn State is 6-0 both straight-up and against the spread and gets a chance to start proving it belongs back at the top of college football with a Saturday morning game at Ohio State this week.

The Nittany Lions are 4-point underdogs, the shortest spread they’ve merited at Ohio Stadium since 2008 in late coach Joe Paterno’s final Big Ten championship season.

This year’s Big Ten is widely considered a three-team race between Michigan at +135 (i.e. risking $100 to win $135) to win the conference, Ohio State at +215 and Penn State at +315. Considering Michigan or Ohio State has won the Big Ten in each of the last six years, Penn State cracking the top of the betting board is no minor accomplishment. But the Nittany Lions surely want more.

They get Michigan at home on Nov. 11, two games after this weekend’s Ohio State showdown and may need to win both to ensure a 25^th straight year doesn’t go by without them playing for a national championship. Don’t put it past Penn State, not with how well it’s played over the first half of the season.

Read below for handicaps on every Football Bowl Subdivision game in Week 8. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record picking every game this season stands at 177-192-8 (47-49-1 on plays, 55-61-2 on leans and 75-83-5 on guesses).

Big Games

Penn State +4 at Ohio State, over/under: 47. For all the concern about Ohio State’s offense, there’s been less noise about the Buckeyes now potentially having one of the best defenses in the nation. Penn State’s offensive numbers look gaudy, but they’re due for some drop against such a disruptive Ohio State stop unit. Guess: Ohio State -4.

UCF +20 at Oklahoma, over/under: 65. There will probably be a better spot to do so in the next couple weeks, but UCF looks like a buy-low team coming off a three-game losing streak where they were beset with an onslaught of injuries. The Knights should be healthier coming off a bye and have the talent at their peak not to get blown out against anyone. Guess: UCF +20.

Washington State +20.5 at Oregon, over/under: 62. It’s traditionally difficult for a contending team to bounce back and play their best coming off their first loss of the season, especially one as crippling as Oregon’s 36-33 loss to Washington last week. More importantly, this spread looks a couple points inflated anyway and too colored by Washington State’s recent two-week skid instead of a season-long sample that says the visitors can at least keep up in a shootout. Play: Washington State +20.5.

Tennessee +8.5 at Alabama, over/under: 49.5. Alabama has learned to navigate its uncharacteristic roster issues admirably during a five-game winning streak, but it’s still just 63^rd in the nation in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense. The Crimson Tide lack the explosiveness to win by margin against other capable teams, a category in which the Volunteers still fit despite being down from last year’s playoff-threatening team. Lean: Tennessee +8.5.

Ole Miss -6.5 at Auburn, over/under: 56.5. If only we had a data point to illustrate how slow-paced, offensively limited Auburn performed up against a high-flying, powerhouse offense to inform this week’s handicap. Oh, that’s right, Auburn faced LSU — a team that fell to a more beaten-up Ole Miss side 55-49 last month — last week and was non-competitive in a 48-18 laugher as an 11-point underdog. Play: Ole Miss -6.5

Michigan -23.5 at Michigan State, over/under: 48. Series history falls squarely in favor of Michigan State, which has tormented Michigan for the last decade and a half. But that feels meaningless considering few, if any, of those games featured as large of a talent gap as will be on display at this year’s edition of the rivalry game. Play: Michigan -23.5.

Duke +14 at Florida State, over/under: 49. Duke quarterback Riley Leonard was reportedly close to playing through an ankle injury in last week’s 24-3 win over NC State, so it stands to reason he might gut through it for one of the biggest games of the season. This number is fair — if not a tiny bit high — for Duke without Leonard, but if he plays, it should be closer to 10. Lean: Duke +14.

Utah +7 at USC, over/under: 56. USC’s offense is in a funk and now must go up against a rugged, experience defense that seemed to somewhat have its number in a pair of victories a year ago. The number looks exactly right, but the Trojans’ mediocrity has now spread a month with four straight non-covers, so it might not be an easy fix. Guess: Utah +7.

Big Plays

New Mexico State -3.5 at UTEP, over/under: 48.5. UTEP has been woeful this season but found their first cover in a Football Bowl Subdivision game last week with a tweaked offense behind new quarterback Cade McConnell. That should make them more difficult to prepare for especially considering New Mexico State has beaten up on two of the worst teams in the nation, Florida International and Sam Houston, the last two weeks. Play: UTEP +3.5.

Mississippi State +6.5 at Arkansas, over/under: 48.5. This is a high-asking price for an injury-ravaged Arkansas side that should be all too willing to play into Mississippi State’s preferred sluggish pace. This looks like the Bulldogs’ best chance for a conference victory, and they benefited from a bye week to get extra time to prepare for it. Play: Mississippi State +6.5.

Boston College +4.5 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 58.5. Georgia Tech sits 48^th in the nation in EPA per play; Boston College is at 88^th. Most other metrics are just as lopsided and indicate the Yellow Jackets should be closer to a touchdown favorite. Play: Georgia Tech -4.5.

Baylor +2.5 at Cincinnati, over/under: 50.5. The Bearcats bizarrely get big respect in the betting market on a weekly basis but their only FBS cover of the season came in a 27-21 upset victory over a Pittsburgh team that was broken at the time. Baylor’s resume looks just as ugly but that’s largely because it played half the year without quarterback Blake Shapen, who’s back now and raises their ceiling. Play: Baylor +2.5.

UTSA -3.5 at Florida Atlantic, over/under: 60. Florida Atlantic’s offense has started to break out under new quarterback Daniel Richardson, which perhaps should have been expected in an offense coached by Tom Herman. UTSA’s defense has been reeling and should give Richardson plenty of opportunity to get even more comfortable this week. Play: Florida Atlantic +3.5.

Texas Tech +4.5 at BYU, over/under: 52. There’s already been one example of Texas Tech underperforming on the road in elevation this season, when it lost 35-33 to Wyoming as 13.5-point favorites in Week 1, and now it might be down to its third quarterback. Behren Morton, who’s already filling in for Tyler Shough, is considered a gametime decision after missing the second half of a 38-21 loss to Kansas State as 1-point favorites last week with back and shoulder injuries. Play: BYU +4.5.

Other Picks

Play: Utah State +4.5 at San Jose State

Play: Georgia Southern -16.5 vs. UL Monroe

Lean: Houston +24 vs. Texas

Lean: Miami +3.5 vs. Clemson

Lean: Wisconsin -2.5 at Illinois

Lean: UNR +14 at San Diego State

Lean: Northwestern +12 at Nebraska

Lean: Tulane -20 vs. North Texas

Lean: SMU -19.5 at Temple

Lean: Kent State +7 vs. Buffalo

Lean: Ball State +4.5 vs. Central Michigan

Lean: Bowling Green -7.5 vs. Akron

Lean: Hawaii pick’em at New Mexico

Lean: Rutgers -4.5 at Indiana

Lean: Pittsburgh +2.5 at Wake Forest

Lean: North Carolina -23.5 vs. Virginia

Lean: Miami (Ohio) +2 vs. Toledo

Lean: Eastern Michigan +12.5 at Northern Illinois

Lean: Minnesota +4 at Iowa

Lean: Washington -26.5 vs. Arizona State

Lean: Charlotte +7 at East Carolina

Lean: Marshall +4 vs. James Madison

Lean: Western Michigan +17 at Ohio

Guess: Old Dominion +6.5 vs. Appalachian State

Guess: Memphis -5.5 at UAB

Guess: Coastal Carolina -10 at Arkansas State

Guess: Connecticut +2 vs. South Florida

Guess: Colorado State +8 at UNLV

Guess: Georgia State +3 at Louisiana

Guess: Tulsa -3 vs. Rice

Guess: Air Force -10.5 at Navy

Guess: Kansas State +6.5 vs. TCU

Guess: South Carolina +7 at Missouri

Guess: Florida International +5.5 at Sam Houston

Guess: Stanford +17 at UCLA

Guess: Army +30.5 at LSU

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or