Sunday Sweats: Seven bets to add to your NFL Week 6 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023 | 4:30 p.m.

Those who prefer unrestrained offense might be underwhelmed by the NFL’s Week 6.

The betting market projects today’s slate of games projects as the lowest-scoring of the year so far by a wide margin. Much of the estimated decline comes as a result of the weather forecast that’s calling for rain and wind across wide swaths of the Eastern United States.

Three games — Minnesota at Chicago, San Francisco at Cleveland and the New York Giants at Buffalo — have seen their over/under totals drop by at least 4.5 points since the opening line last Sunday.

Personally, I’d be fine with a change in the scoring environment. Perhaps it can help Sunday Sweats, which has whiffed two straight weeks on the “tasty total” section after starting the year 3-0. But it’s still be a highly successful start overall, and there’s no reason Week 6 should stop the winning ways.    

Read below to find beat in all seven of Sunday Sweats' usual categories. Lines are the best currently available at publication time in Las Vegas with the sports book noted. Plays from other betting columns will be linked and tracked here at the bottom of the page. Check back Sunday for an additional prop in the Raiders' gameday preview that will also be tracked as part of the Sunday Sweats.

Tasty Total (3-2, $160): Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 42.5 at -108 (Boyd Sports)

$216 to win $200

It’s time for Baker Mayfield to prove he’s truly as “back” as all the glowing profiles and discussion about him indicate him to be. I think he’s capable. The Lions’ defense has made big strides, but its secondary remains a relative weakness. The Buccaneers seem to have found a gem in offensive coordinator Dave Canales. With an extra week to prepare off a bye, Canales should find a way to cut into the Detroit defense. On the other side, the Lions’ offense is more of a proven commodity. It’s going to score into the 20s, so the question becomes whether the Buccaneers can hold up their end of the deal to cash this over. I like this matchup for them.

Two- (Or Three-) Team Teaser (2-3, -$170): Washington Commanders +8 & Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)

$240 to win $200

I continue to like the Falcons more than the betting market, but even as a frequent backer of them, it’s easy to see the limitations. They’re not going to win by margin very often with the way the offense is currently constructed. Washington should have an edge in the big-play department, and that’s enough to keep it in this game. As for the Chargers, I’d make them a slight favorite — not slight underdog — against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Perhaps that’s where they close, but in the meantime, it’s worth dragging them through the 3 and 7 into standard teaser range. Many expect fireworks with Dallas and Los Angeles as evidenced by the 51-point total, but that’s a little high to me. I bet under 51 too — heck, let's make under 51 on Monday Night Football a bonus bet for $220 to win $200) — and that game state makes a +8 even more valuable on a teaser.

Moneyline Parlay (1-4, $370): Tampa Bay Buccaneers & New York Jets +770 (STN Sports)

$100 to win $770

No guts, no glory, right? And it takes a lot of guts to bet on Zach Wilson against what’s been one of the NFL’s best teams dating back to the end of last season. But the Eagles are down this year on defense. And now, two of the biggest reasons they’ve been able to stay afloat — defensive tackle Jalen Carter and cornerback Darius Slay — are out this afternoon. The stage is set for Wilson and the Jets’ offense to build on the competence they’ve shown in the last couple weeks. Injuries are playing a role in the other game I’m placing in this parlay too. The Buccaneers are a lot healthier than the Lions coming out of a bye week, which is the biggest reason why a +145 moneyline is too high. STN Sports luckily is tied for the market-high on that price, while its got hands-down the best +255 odds on the Jets.

Player Prop (7-3, $806): Zay Flowers over 59.5 receiving yards at -110 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$220 to win $200

Few position groups all season will have as rough of a week as the Ravens’ receivers did in Week 6. Perhaps the biggest factor in Baltimore’s 17-10 at collapse at Pittsburgh was their continued drops by their best pass-catchers, including Flowers. But the unit is in position to bounce back Sunday morning in London — particularly Flowers, who’s separated himself as the Ravens’ No. 1 receiver in his rookie season. The Titans are the worst team in the league against No. 1 receivers, per Aaron Schatz’s DVOA ratings. Despite the drops last week, Flowers still put up 73 receiving yards. He’s gone over this 59.5 mark in five of six career games, and arguably none of those contests featured as advantageous of a matchup as this one.  

Lookahead Line (0-4, -$935): Los Angeles Rams -3 -105 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 7 (Caesars/William Hill)

$315 to win $300

Is this section cursed? It’s beginning to feel like it, considering I’ve mostly locked in valuable numbers a week ahead of time but none of them have come through. This could be one of the better opportunities yet. Nothing statistically can possibly rate the Steelers as an equal team to the Rams, though that’s the respect the latter is getting ahead of next week’s West Coast trip. Pittsburgh sits at 3-2 straight-up on the year, but it’s performed more like a 1-4 side. That’s going to start to even out. The Rams’ offense is on the up with Copper Kupp returned to go with all the team’s young, emerging weapons. I’ll keep betting on them until the market catches up, hence why they’ve been the choice in his hopefully-not-cursed category two weeks in a row.  

Future Finding (1-1, $700): Boston Celtics +950 to win NBA in-season tournament (Boyd Sports)

$200 to win $1,900

I didn’t plan to ditch football here for a while longer, but there’s a lot going on in sports right now. And a lot going on makes for a lot of opportunities. The Celtics are more than double the price to win the NBA’s upcoming in-season tournament, which concludes on Dec. 7-9 in Las Vegas, than they are to win the NBA title. That makes no sense. Yes, the tournament will have more variance with a four-game group stage and then single-elimination bracket of eight but the Celtics have a big advantage that might not be accounted for correctly: They’re in the weakest initial set of teams. They’re highly likely to survive East Group B which consists of the New York Knicks, Miami Heat, Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets. Then, they’ll likely be favored in every Knockout Stage game too. Boston shouldn’t be as low as the 4-to-1 it is to win the NBA championship in this market, but +950 is definitely too generous.   

Non-football Play (4-1, $550): Ottawa Senators -115 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (BetMGM)

$230 to win $200

Without goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy and much of the depth they’ve relied on in past years, the Lightning are not the team that’s reached three of the last four Stanley Cup Final series. The Senators have just as much firepower to start the season, and the teams grade out as even overall. With the Senators getting to stay at home for this second half of a back-to-back game, that’s an additional advantage to the Lightning needing to make the admittedly short trip from Detroit. Ottawa should be about -130 here, leaving plenty of room for a wager.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 18-18, $1,721

Weekend betting columns year to date: 115-138-3, $10,580

Weekend betting columns all-time: 593-633-10, $29,089 

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); Atlanta Braves at 5-to-1 to win the National League ($300 to win $1,500; Atlanta Braves at 10-to-1 to win the World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Buffalo Bills at 9-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($300 to win $2,700); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000) Las Vegas Aces to win WNBA Championship at -115 ($575 to win $500); William Byron to win NASCAR Cup Series championship at +750 ($300 to win $2,250); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Mississippi State under 6.5 wins at -145 ($435 to win $300) Colorado under 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Miami over 7.5 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Myles Garrett to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year ($300 to win $2,400); Florida over 5.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); Kentucky over 7 wins at +110 ($200 to win $220); Mississippi State under 6 wins at Even money ($100 to win $100); Oklahoma State over 6 wins at -140 ($280 to win $200); Texas Tech under 7.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); UCF over 7 wins at Even money ($200 to win $200); West Virginia under 5.5 wins at -180 ($360 to win $200); Air Force to win the Mountain West at 5-to-1 ($200 to win $1,000); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -120 ($120 to win $100); Oregon State under 8.5 wins at -135 ($135 to win $100); USC under 10 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Washington over 9 wins at -120 ($180 to win $150); Ohio State over 10.5 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Penn State under 9.5 wins at +130 ($150 to win $215); Iowa under 8.5 wins at -115 ($230 to win $200); Nebraska under 6.5 wins at -110 ($220 to win $200); Purdue over 4.5 wins at -140 ($210 to win $150); Duke under 6 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Miami over 7.5 wins at +116 ($200 to win $232); North Carolina under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Syracuse over 6 wins at +105 ($200 to win $210); Boise State under 8.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); New Mexico over 3 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Fresno State under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Hawaii over 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950); Miami Dolphins to not make the playoffs at +105 ($300 to win $315); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +850 ($200 to win $1,950); Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards at +550 ($200 to win $1,100); Europe to win the Ryder Cup at +120 ($200 to win $240); San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -165 ($660 to win $400); Western Kentucky to win Conference USA at +110 ($500 to win $550); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at -190 ($570 to win $300); Tampa Bay Buccaneers NOT to make the playoffs at +120 ($200 to win $240); Los Angeles Rams -4.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals ($275 to win $250)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or