Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 6 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Oct. 12, 2023 | 2 a.m.

So much for the top of football betting boards being bunched up. Favorite status in future betting markets is now monopolized by the San Francisco 49ers coming off their 42-10 victory over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5.

The 49ers improved to 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 against the spread — both tied for NFL bests — with the Sunday Night Football smackdown but their numbers made the biggest leaps at sports books. They’re now the shortest shot at as low as 3-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 at Allegiant Stadium, and as low as +140 (i.e. risking $100 to win $140) to get there by winning the NFC.

The price stops don’t stop at the team level, as quarterback Brock Purdy is now a co-favorite with reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes to win this year’s award at +450. Running back Christian McCaffrey has the lowest odds to win Offensive Player of the Year at around +175, while coach Kyle Shanahan is the second choice at 5-to-1 to win Coach of the Year.

San Francisco might not be done yet padding its acclaim level either considering its only projected to be less than a three-point favorite once all year — in a Week 13 game at fellow unbeaten Philadelphia.

It’s typically important not to get too carried away with early-season dominance. Just a year ago, the Buffalo Bills were in a similar position at this point after beating the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium before regressing later in the season and getting bounced early in the playoffs.

But the 49ers look the part to merit their odds so far. Sports books belong to them at the moment.

Read below to find picks on every Week 6 game including the 49ers’ trip to the Browns. Games are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with individual records attached. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record for the year stands at 34-44.

Plays (13-13)

Jacksonville Jaguars -4 vs. Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville gave this same amount of points in Indianapolis to start the season and came away with a 31-21 victory. The Colts have since lost their starting quarterback as Anthony Richardson is out at least a month with a shoulder injury. The Jaguars deserve some adjustment for home-field advantage, if not a boost for appearing to jell in an impressive 25-20 victory over the Bills as 5.5-point underdogs last week in London.

New York Jets +7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles The Eagles played one of their best games of the season in dispatching the Rams 23-14 last week as 3.5-point favorites but still haven’t performed to the level of last year’s Super Bowl-participating team. Problem is, they continue to be priced like it. The Jets aren’t great but trending upwards with two straight covers and shouldn’t be getting a touchdown at home.

New Orleans Saints -1.5 at Houston Texans The Saints’ injury report has really cleared up over the last couple weeks; the Texans’ hasn’t. Of particular concern is all the offensive line absences and now wide receiver Tank Dell landing in concussion protocol. The Texans have a promising future, but the Saints can be a factor in the NFC right now if they play as well as they did in last week’s 34-0 obliteration of the Patriots as 1.5-point underdogs.

Atlanta Falcons -2.5 vs. Washington Commanders Much-maligned Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder finally broke out last week, outdueling Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite C.J. Stroud for 275 passing yards in a 21-19 win over Houston. And he should be set up to build on it this week considering Washington sits 28^th in the league in giving up 7.5 yards per pass attempt despite having faced one of the league’s weakest schedules.

Leans (13-10)

Minnesota Vikings -2.5 at Chicago Bears Losing reigning Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson to injured reserve is a knock to the Vikings, but the line has more than corrected going from 3.5 to 2.5 since he went down. That’s a lot more significant of a move than it may seem considering the importance of the 3, the NFL’s most common margin of victory, and it’s debatable if even the best receiver in the league is worth that giant of a jump.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Detroit Lions The Lions' passing game is torching opponents with quarterback Jared Goff ranking third in the league with 8 yards per attempt but it hasn’t seen a defensive backfield as capable as Tampa Bay’s yet. The Buccaneers are second in the NFL in pass defense by Aaron Schatz's DVOA metric. Taking +3.5 requires paying -119 (i.e. risking $119 to win $100) at STN Sports but that’s a slightly better bet mathematically than wagering on +3 at Even money elsewhere.

Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks It’s too early to definitively declare Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow as back and fully recovered from his calf strain as he might have just taken advantage of a plus-matchup against a struggling Arizona pass defense last week. But it’s worth noting that Seattle has struggled just as much in the secondary. Pass defense is the Seahawks’ biggest weakness, rating 25^th in the league by DVOA and only marginally ahead of the Cardinals in 30^th.

Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys The Chargers should be a lot fresher and get back some reinforcements off a bye week as opposed to the Cowboys, who must pick themselves up off a humbling defeat. This feels like Dallas’ first close game of the year, one that comes down to the wire and makes it worth taking points on whichever side is the underdog.

Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Tennessee Titans in London Baltimore is already a far better team than Tennessee, and one that should be hungry coming off of an incomprehensible collapse in a 17-10 loss to Pittsburgh as 4.5-point favorites last week, and might also have a travel/acclimation advantage this week. The Ravens have spent all week in London while the Titans plan to fly in following their second full practice of the week. Teams employing the former plan have fared better than those doing the latter in an albeit a small sample size of NFL international games.

Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 vs. Denver Broncos The Chiefs are not without their issues, but boil this game down, and it’s the best quarterback in the league against the worst defense in NFL history through five weeks per DVOA. The Broncos’ defense chances of slowing Patrick Mahomes seems slim, and it’s easier to trust Kansas City coach Andy Reid than reeling Denver boss Sean Payton on a short week.

Guesses (8-21)

Cleveland Browns +7 vs. San Francisco 49ers This game can’t be touched until more information is available on the status of injured Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson, but it feels like he should be able to play through a rotator-cuff contusion coming off a bye week. And if he does indeed play, then this line will crash with a touchdown line arguably looking high in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game in forecasted rainy and windy conditions.

Los Angeles Rams -7 vs. Arizona Cardinals Too bad the opening prices of Los Angeles -4.5 were swallowed up so quickly, or else this could have been a play. The line is more where it belongs now. Arizona doesn’t have the personnel to slow the Rams’ suddenly stout receiving corps starring Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell.

Miami Dolphins -13.5 vs. Carolina Panthers It’s hard to be thrilled about laying a gigantic number with a team as poor defensively as Miami, but the offense has continually made up for it en route to a 4-1 straight-up and against the spread start. Carolina, conversely, has consistently seemed to find ways to hold itself in back throughout a 0-5 straight-up, 0-4-1 against the spread start.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 vs. New England Patriots If this spread hits Patriots +3.5 — and that seems likely to happen with most 3-point lines currently juiced towards the favored Raiders — then the visitors would become the pick. Both offenses look broken with Las Vegas gaining 4.8 yards per play to New England’s 4.4 yards per play, making it unlikely either side can really pull away.

New York Giants +14 at Buffalo Bills It’s gotten old quickly picking the Giants every week only to watch them get trampled, but the rapid speed with which their numbers are inflating is making it impossible to approach them any other way. The Bills should win this game comfortably, but their mounting defensive injuries should prevent them from laying two touchdowns this early in the season.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or