College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 7

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Clarity is coming on the Heisman Trophy race.

The early part of the college football season is about whittling down the hopefuls as it pertains to the sport’s most prestigious award. The middle part, where the regular season currently stands at its exact midpoint after this weekend’s games, is about some of those contenders squaring off head-to-head and knocking each other off.

The first taste of the latter may have come last week when Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel helped his team defeat archrival Texas 34-30 as 4-point underdogs. Gabriel more or less switched places with Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers in the Heisman market as a result, dropping to an 8-to-1 fourth choice at Circa Sports while Ewers shot up to 20-to-1.

An even bigger Heisman showdown happens Saturday afternoon in Seattle where two of the top three current choices encounter each other. Washington quarterback and momentary Heisman favorite Michael Penix Jr., who’s at +250 (i.e. risking $100 to win $250), sees his Huskies host Bo Nix (a +650 third choice) and the Oregon Ducks.

The West Coast always figured to be the site of many of the biggest Heisman games this year with reigning winner, USC quarterback Caleb Williams (currently a +260 third choice), the man to beat. But the region is playing an even bigger role with the emergence of Penix and Nix.

All three of those quarterback’s teams will play each other over the next month, and then two of them will in all likelihood meet again at Allegiant Stadium for the Pac-12 Championship Game on Dec. 1. Based on what the odds currently imply, the best of the bunch will be favored to fight off the top candidate from the rest of the country to win the award.

The closest competitors to the Pac-12’s big three right now are North Carolina’s Drake Maye (11-to-1), Florida State’s Jordan Travis (11-to-1) and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy (12-to-1).

The Heisman competition is always fascinating to watch and draws an exorbitant amount of bets, but there are games to wager on in the meantime.

Let’s get to Week 7’s set of them. Read below for handicaps on every Football Bowl Subdivision game. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record picking every game this season stands at 148-170-7 (40-41-1 on plays, 42-55-2 on leans and 66-75-4 on guesses).

Big Games

Arkansas +19.5 at Alabama, over/under: 46.5. With his job security waning, Arkansas coach Sam Pittman made some radical changes last week — and they actually kind of worked as the Razorbacks played one of their better games of the season in a 27-20 loss to Ole Miss as 13-point underdogs. Alabama has won and covered in three straight, including back-to-back weeks on the road, but they’re still not a vintage Crimson Tide team and this bloated spread offers a sell-high opportunity. Lean: Arkansas +19.5.

Oregon +3 at Washington, over/under: 67.5. I’m drowning in Washington future bets in virtually every possible market —to win the Pac-12, to win the national championship and Penix to win the Heisman. And, sure, that’s mostly a good thing with the Huskies’ fast start to the season, but at the same time, the Ducks terrify me. I don’t have long-term Oregon exposure, and it’s the only Pac-12 team I think could be better than Washington. I’m therefore going to approach this game as a natural hedge and bet some on Oregon as an underdog at an otherwise fair price. Guess: Oregon +3.

Texas A&M +3.5 at Tennessee, over/under: 55.5. These teams look identical from an overall quality standpoint, but the spot far favors the Volunteers. Tennessee should be healthier coming off a bye as opposed to Texas A&M, which has played three straight conference games. Both the Aggies and Volunteers are aggressive in trying to create explosive plays but the latter is more trustworthy in actually pulling them off. Guess: Tennessee -3.5.

Auburn +11 at LSU, over/under: 60. Every single LSU game this year has gone over the total, as the Tigers have their flaws but getting consistent offensive production is not one of them. It’s hard to see Auburn keeping up with an offense that ranks 109^th in the nation in expected points added per play. LSU sits No. 1 by the measure. Lean: LSU -11.

USC +3 at Notre Dame, over/under: 63.5. This is a pretty flimsy “play” but Caesars/William popping up with a key number of 3 while every other sports book holds at 2.5 pushed me over the top on the Trojans. Notre Dame already looked beaten-up and worn-down after seven straight weeks without a bye in last week’s 33-20 loss to Louisville as 6.5-point favorites. Keeping up with one of the most speed-laden offenses in the nation, which could return freshman star and Bishop Gorman graduate Zachariah Branch this week, will be a challenge. Play: USC +3.

Miami +4 at North Carolina, over/under: 57. No one wants to back the Hurricanes after last week’s mindless mistake by coach Mario Cristobal that led to a 23-20 loss to Georgia Tech as 21-point favorites, but that’s creating value. Miami still far outplayed Georgia Tech on a fundamental level, pushing the Yellow Jackets around up front in a manner it should be able to repeat against the Tar Heels. If Cristobal just would have called for a kneel to secure a victory, this line would be on the other side of 3. Play: Miami +4.

Missouri +2.5 at Kentucky, over/under: 52.5. Speaking of advantages in the trenches, Kentucky should hold one of the largest ones of the week going up against Missouri. The Wildcats’ defense is also far and away the best the Tigers have seen so far this year. Missouri probably has the edge in playmakers, but it’s not as large as Kentucky’s check mark in the muscle department. Play: Kentucky -2.5.

UCLA +4.5 at Oregon State, over/under: 54.5. If there’s any truth to the old axiom that “defense travels,” then UCLA is getting too many points here. The Bruins’ defense continues to outdo itself each week, especially after holding a previously-unstoppable Washington State offense to only 216 total yards and 11 first downs in last week’s 25-17 win as 3-point favorites. Lean: UCLA +4.5.

Big Plays

Iowa State +5.5 at Cincinnati, over/under: 45.5. Cincinnati was priced as the worst or second-worst team in the Big 12 coming into the season, but has since moved upwards towards the middle of the pack. The betting market is giving the Bearcats more respect than they deserve, and is too slow to realize that the Cyclones’ offense is getting consistently better under promising freshman quarterback Rocco Becht. Play: Iowa State +5.5.

BYU +5 at TCU, over/under: 53. TCU’s offense looked rough in a 27-14 loss to BYU as 6.5-point favorites last week after quarterback Chandler Morris went down with a serious knee injury and was replaced by Josh Hoover. The freshman backup was overwhelmed in the moment but should be better positioned for his first career start given a week of practices to take direction from coach Sonny Dykes and offensive coordinator Kendal Briles. Play: TCU -5.

Florida +2.5 at South Carolina, over/under: 51.5. The Gators stumbled in a couple games when they went up a class this season, with losses at Utah and Kentucky, but they’ve pretty consistently put away teams that they hold a talent advantage over. South Carolina falls in the latter category as the Gators should have distinct edges in positional units like offensive line, linebacker and defensive backfield. Play: Florida +2.5.

Wake Forest +2.5 at Virginia Tech, over/under: 48. Demon Deacons coach Dave Clawson usually figures his teams out at some point in the midseason, and it sure seemed like he put some things together in last week’s narrow 17-12 loss at Clemson as 21-point underdogs. Virginia Tech has shown progress too with two straight covers, but Wake Forest has the slightly better metrics and it’s easier to trust its infrastructure. Play: Wake Forest +2.5.

San Jose State -8.5 at New Mexico, over/under: 58.5. It must be my curse to back the Lobos on a near-weekly basis but I'll repeat again: They’re not as bad as other recent New Mexico teams. The Lobos now have a real offense, even more so thanks to the recent emergence of a big-play threat at running back in Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Play: New Mexico +8.5.

San Diego State -6.5 at Hawaii, over/under: 54. Hawaii desperately needed its bye week after three separate trips to the mainland in the first month of the season. Now that the Warriors should be rested, they’re more likely to rediscover the form that had them looking much improved during a 2-1 against the spread start to the season. Play: Hawaii +6.5.

Other Games

Play: Kent State +10.5 at Eastern Michigan

Play: Akron +12.5 at Central Michigan

Play: Stanford +11.5 at Colorado

Play: Marshall +1 at Georgia State

Play: Michigan State +5.5 at Rutgers

Play: Utah State +6 vs. Fresno State

Lean: Northern Illinois +7 vs. Ohio

Lean: Pittsburgh +8 vs. Louisville

Lean: Kansas State +2 at Texas Tech

Lean: Miami (Ohio) -8.5 at Western Michigan

Lean: Ohio State -19.5 at Purdue

Lean: Memphis +5 vs. Tulane

Lean: Air Force -10.5 vs. Wyoming

Lean: UTSA -10 vs. UAB

Lean: Toledo -17 at Ball State

Lean: Oklahoma State +3.5 vs. Kansas

Lean: Troy -4.5 at Army

Lean: Duke -3.5 vs. NC State

Lean: Georgia Southern +4.5 at James Madison

Lean: Charlotte +3.5 vs. Navy

Lean: Illinois +14 at Maryland

Lean: Vanderbilt +32 vs. Georgia

Guess: New Mexico State -3 vs. Sam Houston

Guess: Colorado State +8.5 vs. Boise State

Guess: UL Monroe +16.5 at Texas State

Guess: South Florida -2 vs. Florida Atlantic

Guess: Syracuse +18 at Florida State

Guess: Florida International -2 vs. UTEP

Guess: West Virginia -2.5 at Houston

Guess: Iowa +10 at Wisconsin

Guess: Buffalo +5 vs. Bowling Green

Guess: North Texas -6 vs. Temple

Guess: Massachusetts +43 at Penn State

Guess: California +13.5 at Utah

Guess: Arizona +8.5 at Washington State

Guess: UNR +9.5 vs. UNLV

Guess: Michigan -33.5 vs. Indiana

Guess: SMU -11.5 at East Carolina

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or