Sunday Sweats: Seven bets to add to your NFL Week 5 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023 | 2 p.m.

The NFL betting board is trimmed for the first time this season, but that’s not going to stop Sunday Sweats.

Four teams will enjoy their bye during Week 5 (the Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers) to cut down from 16 games to 14 games. The betting opportunities are ample on those 14 games, though, and I’m determined to maximize them.

Week 4 brought the first losing outing of the year in Sunday Sweats, and there’s no time to recover. There are no bye weeks in betting.

Read below to find bets in all seven of Sunday Sweats’ usual categories. Lines are the best currently available at publication time in Las Vegas with the sports book noted. Plays from other betting columns will be linked and tracked here at the bottom of the page. Check back Monday for an additional prop in the Raiders’ gameday preview that will also be tracked as part of the Sunday Sweats.

Tasty Total (3-1, $380): New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots over 39 points (BetMGM)

$220 to win $200

The Saints’ defense is quite good, but it’s not as good as the Cowboys’ defense. The Patriots’ offense is quite bad, but it’s not as bad as it showed last week in a 38-3 loss the Cowboys. A similar argument applies to the Saints, which should be more offensively competent than they showed in last week’s 26-9 loss to the Buccaneers. Derek Carr should not have been playing with his shoulder injury, but there’s a good chance he’s closer to healthy with another week to recover. He’s also got Alvin Kamara back in the lineup for the second straight week after the star running back was suspended to start the year. The Patriots are now playing without two of their best defensive players, edge rusher Matthew Judon and cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who went down with long-term injuries in the Cowboys’ game. This total is therefore a couple points too low.  

Two- (Or Three)- Team Teaser (1-3, -$370): Indianapolis Colts +8.5 & Green Bay Packers +8 at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)

$240 to win $200

Hopefully the return of running back Jonathan Taylor can outweigh the absences of key defenders like Shaquille Leonard and Kwity Paye for the Colts. I think it can. Indianapolis’ offense can be better than anyone ever imagined with Taylor alongside standout rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. From an overall roster-quality perspective, the Colts aren’t 2.5 points worse than the Titans — let alone 8.5 points through two key numbers in a teaser. Ditto for the Packers. Unlike the Colts, I actually don’t expect the Packers to beat the Raiders on Monday Night Football. But it should be close. A two- to seven-point Raiders’ win is by far the likeliest outcome, creating plenty of value on using Green Bay as a teaser leg.    

Moneyline Parlay (1-3, $470): Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons & Denver Broncos at +401 (BetMGM)

$100 to win $401

Call me stubborn but I was so close to hitting a three-teamer comprised of all favorites last week that I’m giving it another shot this week. Insert the weekly disclaimer about how playing moneyline parlays is not the best utilization of capital, but if you do, it’s best to find a sports book with the lowest price on all the sides. BetMGM fills the requirement this week with the Bengals at -160 (i.e. risking $160 to win $100), the Falcons at -125 and the Broncos at -140.  They all look short to me. Reports are positive that Joe Burrow has progressed in his recovery from a calf strain this week. It’s time to sell high on the Texans going up against a talent-rich Falcons’ defense. And the Broncos’ home-field advantage should be worth more against the skidding Jets. It’s all a gamble, but that’s what we’re doing at the end of the day.   

Player Prop (5-3, $406): Christian McCaffrey under 80.5 rushing yards at -115 (STN Sports)

$230 to win $200

Yes, McCaffrey has flown over this total in every game so far this season. But he also hasn't faced a defense anywhere near as stout as the Cowboys’ one he’ll see on Sunday Night Football. Dan Quinn has been schematically brilliant since coming to Dallas as defensive coordinator, and he’ll surely have a plan for the rare non-quarterback that’s drawing MVP buzz early in the season. A better betting strategy might be to wait until closer to kickoff and bet under on an inflated number as McCaffrey is certain to draw more over tickets. But STN is already three yards higher than any other sports book on this bet, a big reason why I’m comfortable locking it in now.  

Lookahead Line (0-3, -$660): Los Angeles Rams -4.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals in Week 6 (Caesars/William Hill)

$275 to win $250

The Rams’ offense looks revitalized already, and it’s only going to get better with the return of Cooper Kupp this weekend. The Rams might knock off the Eagles outright as 4-point underdogs tomorrow and, as already mentioned in the moneyline parlay section, I’m not expecting the Cardinals to put up as much of a fight against the Bengals. If I’m right about those two results, this line could reopen as high as Rams -7. Personally, I’d put it there already. I’m higher on the Rams than the market and lower on the Cardinals, making this my favorite Week 6 bet currently available.

Future Finding (1-1, $700): Tampa Bay Buccaneers to NOT make the playoffs at +120 (Circa Sports)

$200 to win $240

Maybe I’m clinging too tightly to my opinions coming into the season, but I saw the Buccaneers as a clear step below the Saints and Atlanta Falcons before Week 1. They’ve started 3-1, but I still see them as slightly below those two 2-2 squads through the first month. The Buccaneers are on a bye this week, but this number will drop in the event that the Falcons and Saints win. That scenario seems highly possible. Tampa Bay is also incredibly thin depth-wise, making their early bye week more of a disadvantage than it already is inherently. There’s the fear it could snag a wild-card berth instead of a divisional crown to beat me in this bet, but the NFC is looking deeper than initially believed. The competition will be fierce, and the Buccaneers might not be up for it.  

Non-football Play (3-1, $350): Vegas Golden Knights -170 vs. Seattle Kraken (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$340 to win $200

This one for NHL’s opening night on Tuesday will go over well with the local contingent. Get in now because Vegas should close more around the -190 range. The only thing that can hold the Golden Knights back this season is health, and that’s not going to be an issue in Game 1 of 82. The Golden Knights were an average -170 home favorite against the Kraken in two meetings last year, and there’s no reason they shouldn’t be higher heading into a fresh season. Emotions will be high on Stanley Cup banner night, and the Golden Knights won’t waste the boost.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 14-15, $1,516

Weekend betting columns year to date: 111-135-3, $10,375

Weekend betting columns all-time: 589-630-10, $28,884 

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); Atlanta Braves at 5-to-1 to win the National League ($300 to win $1,500; Atlanta Braves at 10-to-1 to win the World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Buffalo Bills at 9-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($300 to win $2,700); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000) Las Vegas Aces to win WNBA Championship at -115 ($575 to win $500); William Byron to win NASCAR Cup Series championship at +750 ($300 to win $2,250); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Mississippi State under 6.5 wins at -145 ($435 to win $300) Colorado under 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Miami over 7.5 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Myles Garrett to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year ($300 to win $2,400); Florida over 5.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); Kentucky over 7 wins at +110 ($200 to win $220); Mississippi State under 6 wins at Even money ($100 to win $100); Oklahoma State over 6 wins at -140 ($280 to win $200); Texas Tech under 7.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); UCF over 7 wins at Even money ($200 to win $200); West Virginia under 5.5 wins at -180 ($360 to win $200); Air Force to win the Mountain West at 5-to-1 ($200 to win $1,000); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -120 ($120 to win $100); Oregon State under 8.5 wins at -135 ($135 to win $100); USC under 10 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Washington over 9 wins at -120 ($180 to win $150); Ohio State over 10.5 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Penn State under 9.5 wins at +130 ($150 to win $215); Iowa under 8.5 wins at -115 ($230 to win $200); Nebraska under 6.5 wins at -110 ($220 to win $200); Purdue over 4.5 wins at -140 ($210 to win $150); Duke under 6 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Miami over 7.5 wins at +116 ($200 to win $232); North Carolina under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Syracuse over 6 wins at +105 ($200 to win $210); Boise State under 8.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); New Mexico over 3 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Fresno State under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Hawaii over 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950); Miami Dolphins to not make the playoffs at +105 ($300 to win $315); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +850 ($200 to win $1,950); Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards at +550 ($200 to win $1,100); Europe to win the Ryder Cup at +120 ($200 to win $240); San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -165 ($660 to win $400); Western Kentucky to win Conference USA at +110 ($500 to win $550); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at -190 ($570 to win $300); Minnesota Vikings +6.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5 ($275 to win $250)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or