Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 5 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Oct. 5, 2023 | 2 a.m.

One of the biggest AFC games of the season headlined last week’s NFL slate. Now it’s the NFC’s turn to present a clash of championship contenders.

Anything less than finishing the season at Allegiant Stadium for Super Bowl 58 would be a letdown for the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. Their showdown isn’t No. 1 vs. No. 2 like last week’s Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills affair, but Dallas and San Francisco similarly come into Week 5 rated as two of the top three teams in the league.

Sunday Night Football should provide clarity on who belongs where. Unlike last week where the most predictive available ratings unanimously labeled Buffalo as the better team, there’s some dissension with Dallas and San Francisco.

Dallas is No. 2, ahead of San Francisco at No. 3 by percentage points, in expected points added per play. But Aaron Schatz’s DAVE ratings — which combine the standard DVOA with preseason expectations — have the teams flipped.

The betting market also has slotted San Francisco slightly ahead of Dallas.

The 49ers and Cowboys are two franchises that have long measured themselves against each other, especially since the 1990s when they were the two dominant teams of the decade. Appropriately, they’ve played 24 times since 1990 combined between the playoffs and regular season with each team having won 12 contests each.

The total score in the span is 513-507 in favor of San Francisco. The franchises constantly seem to be evenly-matched, including this year where they each have one of their best teams since their concurrent heydays 30 years ago.

Read below to find picks on every Week 5 game including Dallas at San Francisco. Games are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with individual records attached. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record for the year stands at 26-38 after guesses crushed the total record again in Week 4.

Plays (11-10)

Atlanta Falcons -1.5 vs. Houston Texans The Texans have become the toast of the league during their two-game winning streak, but it feels like time to sell high with cluster injuries mounting everywhere from the offensive line to the defensive backfield. The Falcons’ defense should provide a formidable challenge for Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite C.J. Stroud, and the home team’s offense might not be as bad as it’s showed in back-to-back difficult matchups.

Los Angeles Rams +4.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles The Rams get back superstar receiver Cooper Kupp this week, and he could elevate what’s already been a good offense to greatness. The Eagles’ defense has meanwhile felt all the losses of last year’s Super Bowl team, ranking 16^th in the league by EPA per play. An East Coast team’s first trip West also traditionally translates to a decline in efficiency.

Minnesota Vikings +4.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City went an AFC-worst 5-11-1 against the spread during the regular season last year, and seems to be in position to do the same this year. The Chiefs’ defense is improved but just vulnerable enough to let any and all offenses hang around as evidenced by giving up nearly 6 yards per play in a 23-20 win over the Jets last week. And the offense, as usual under Andy Reid, builds up to peak at the end of the season.

Denver Broncos -1.5 vs. New York Jets As bad as Denver has been, it still rates two spots ahead of the New York Jets by EPA per play (26^th to 28^th). This therefore feels like a short line for a Broncos’ team that typically has one of the biggest homefield advantages in the league. The Jets’ defense also hasn’t lived up to expectations, sitting 23^rd in the league by EPA per play.

Las Vegas Raiders +1.5 vs. Green Bay Packers Buy low on the Raiders, which are a tier above the very worst teams in the league by measures like EPA per play and the DAVE ratings. And that’s even with an early swath of injuries headlined by quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo missing a start in last week’s 24-17 loss to the Chargers. They should be healthier in time for Monday Night Football and have a comparable overall roster quality to the Packers.

Leans (11-9)

Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 vs. Buffalo Bills in London Jacksonville’s big question coming into the season was defense but the unit has been so outstanding that it’s far and away the best one Buffalo has played if isolating this year’s performance. It feels like it’s only a matter of time until the Jaguars’ offense breaks out of its funk and elevates the team into a truly dangerous category. Already being stationed in London this week while Buffalo must travel overseas is no small advantage.

Indianapolis Colts +1 vs. Tennessee Titans This line has swung too far after opening Indianapolis -2.5. Let’s say a coin-flip game last week fell the other way and Indianapolis beat the Los Angeles Rams in overtime instead of losing 29-23 and improved to 3-1. The Colts would probably be one of the talks of the league and a 3-point favorite here in that scenario.

New England Patriots -1 vs. New Orleans Saints The number is fair but backing the Patriots is the only choice if there’s any belief still left in Bill Belichick being one of the best coaches in the league. If Belichick, once hands-down the NFL's top tactician, has even a fraction of his former ability left, then he should be able to out-scheme New Orleans’ Dennis Allen, who might be hands-down the worst coach in the league. Belichick’s teams have traditionally bounced back in a big way off an embarrassing loss like last week’s 38-3 obliteration at Dallas.

Guesses (4-19)

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Arizona Cardinals The practice reports on Joe Burrow were encouraging a week ago, though that obviously didn’t manifest as the Bengals’ star quarterback still looked severely limited in a 27-3 loss at the Titans. But if Burrow does take any strides forward this week, this number will look incredibly low in hindsight. The wisest choice might be to wait to bet until closer to kickoff with the spread trending downwards and likely to touch 2.5.

Carolina Panthers +9.5 at Detroit Lions Few things sound less appealing than backing the winless and offensively woeful Panthers, but the Lions need to be one of the best teams in the league to be on the verge of laying double digits this early in the season. Detroit may belong among that category, but some skepticism is natural with up-and-down quarterback Jared Goff and a defense extremely reliant on first- and second-year players.

Chicago Bears +6 at Washington Commanders Despite dragging Philadelphia to overtime last week, Washington didn’t play all that well and outperformed its expectation considering a -1.3 net yards per play margin in the game. Commanders first-year quarterback Sam Howell is holding onto the ball too long and committing too many turnover-worthy plays to lay this many points.

New York Giants +11.5 at Miami Dolphins And here we conclude the tour of highly uncomfortable picks backing possibly the three worst teams in the league. If running back Saquon Barkley and left tackle Andrew Thomas return for the Giants — and it looks likely as of now — then they shouldn’t be getting double-digits.

Pittsburgh Steelers +4 vs. Baltimore Ravens Both teams are too inundated with injuries to feel overly confident on either side. Coming into the season, Baltimore was only a 1-point favorite in this game and the absences have significantly weakened the Ravens. The Steelers are a lot worse than expected but this a large, and possibly inflated, number for a home team facing a divisional opponent.

San Francisco 49ers -3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys This is the exact same spread as the closing price of last year’s NFC divisional playoff showdown between these teams, and the 49ers rolled to a 19-12 cover in that game. They’re a lot better now. In fairness, the Cowboys might be too, but there’s a stronger chance there’s hidden value in the 49ers given many people’s reluctance to trust Brock Purdy. The second-year quarterback’s statistical profile holds a lot more substance than the empty debate he sparks.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or