College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every Week 6 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2023 | 2 a.m.

The race for this season’s Team of the Year in our annual College Football Betting Awards is off to a rousing start as the 133 Football Bowl Subdivision programs round into the halfway pole.

Only four teams have started the year with a 5-0 against the spread record — three national-championship contenders and one big surprise. The big surprise comes locally.

New UNLV coach Barry Odom has the Rebels rolling to the point that they might be the most impressive team of all from a betting perspective. UNLV is the only team in the nation that has covered every point spread this season by at least a touchdown.

The pristine record also puts them in exclusive company at the sports books with Penn State, Oregon and Oklahoma as the other trio of 5-0 sides. Three of the four teams are on a bye this week — UNLV, Penn State and Oregon — while Oklahoma plays in the marquee matchup of Week 6.

The Sooners are an underdog for the first time this season in the final Big 12 edition of the Red River Shootout as they’re getting six points against the archrival Texas Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. They’ve climbed the betting-market rating charts, so the Sooners won’t be able to finish this season with the best against the spread record and therefore claim Team of the Year honors unless they prove to be a true title contender.

The history of the award is pretty split. Some Group of Five conference teams like UNLV have broken through (including Tulane last year) but powerhouses destined for the College Football Playoff like 2021 Michigan and 2019 Clemson have risen to the top too.

This week may not have a huge impact on the early leaders, but there’s plenty to watch with the fantastic four going forward. Maybe the whole set — yes, including UNLV — can challenge for their respective conference titles.

Read below for handicaps on every Week 6 Football Bowl Subdivision game. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record picking every game this season stands at 120-142-6 (33-36-1 on plays, 36-46-2 on leans and 51-70-3 on guesses).

Big Games

Oklahoma +6 vs. Texas in Dallas, over/under: 60.5. Oklahoma only covered by a half-point in both of the games against the two best teams it’s played, SMU and Cincinnati. Given that pair of relatively tight games and an overall poor strength of schedule, I’m skeptical the Sooners are as dominant as their statistical profile indicates. But the market also has its reservations, as evidenced by bettors driving this spread up and sweeping out any real value on the favorite. Guess: Texas -6.

Maryland +20 at Ohio State, over/under: 58. I’ve been waiting for a spot to fade Maryland given its relative weakness in the trenches and somewhat mediocre offensive profile, but the price might be too high here. Maybe Ohio State turned a corner with its game-winning drive against Notre Dame in its last contest two weeks ago, but it hasn’t shown enough to overall to be trusted to blow out decent opponents this season. Guess: Maryland +20.

LSU -6.5 at Missouri, over/under: 64.5. Stock has severely dipped on LSU, but giving up a large amount of points to lose to a pair of the most explosive offenses in the nation (Ole Miss and Florida State) is forgivable. Missouri is not on that level, even with the emergence of star receiver Luther Burden III. LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels is a surer thing in a shootout than Missouri counterpart Brady Cook. Guess: LSU -6.5.

Washington State +3.5 at UCLA, over/under: 59. Washington State has exceeded all expectations behind innovative offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and his perfect quarterback conductor, Cam Ward, but it’s done it against a sneakily diminished set of opposing defenses. The Bruins sit second in the nation in having only given up 3.7 yards per play to Football Bowl Subdivision opponents and will provide significantly more resistance. Play: UCLA -3.5.

Alabama -2.5 at Texas A&M, over/under: 47. This was shaping up as an easy play, if not full-fledged smash spot, on the Aggies before quarterback Conner Weigman was lost for the season with a foot injury two weeks ago. Replacement Max Johnson might be a bigger drop than the market is implying, especially going up against one of the most talent-rich defenses in the nation. Lean: Alabama -2.5.

Syracuse +9 at North Carolina, over/under: 60.5. Syracuse should be able to hang in this game and make it close at the end if it's at full strength. Health is the big question, though, as the Orange added to a lengthy injury report in a 31-14 mauling by Clemson as 7-point underdogs last week. Let’s hope Syracuse returns some players to make this a fair fight. Guess: Syracuse +9.

Kentucky +14.5 at Georgia, over/under: 49. Georgia’s defensive front is down from the past two years, but it’s still not going to allow anywhere close to the 280 rushing yards Kentucky running back Ray Davis logged in last week’s 33-14 pasting of Florida. The Wildcats’ passing offense hasn’t clicked yet this season while the Bulldogs’ seemed to make big strides with its back against the wall in last week’s 27-20 win at Auburn. The comeback showed Georgia can still score fast; Kentucky won’t be able to keep up. Lean: Georgia -14.5.

Notre Dame -6.5 at Louisville, over/under: 54.5. Louisville isn’t flashy like Notre Dame, but its advanced metrics are just as sterling across the board. And, yes, the Cardinals have played a weaker schedule but that could be an advantage here with Notre Dame needing to get up for a third straight week after tight contests with Ohio State and Duke. Play: Louisville +6.5.

Big Plays

Rutgers +13.5 at Wisconsin, over/under: 44.5. It all came together for Wisconsin in a 38-17 win at Purdue as 6-point favorites in its last game. The Badgers could start rolling now under first-year coach Luke Fickell. They’re pretty clearly the class of the Big Ten West, and I’m kicking myself for missing out an Even money price on them to win the division as recently as two weeks ago. The best way to make up for it is to back them liberally going forward. Play: Wisconsin -13.5.

UTSA -13 at Temple, over/under: 56.5. Roadrunners quarterback Frank Harris is slated to return for the first time since Week 2, and if he’s even at 60% health, he shouldn’t have much problem torching a terrible Owls’ defense. Temple is a bottom 15 team in the nation overall by expected points added per play. Play: UTSA -13.

UCF +2.5 at Kansas, over/under: 65. Speaking of returning quarterbacks, UCF’s John Rhys Plumlee is expected to be back from a leg injury for the team’s third Big 12 game. His dual-threat ability could haunt the Jayhawks’ defense. Meanwhile, Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels is no guarantee to play after sitting out of last week’s 40-14 blowout loss at Texas. Play: UCF +2.5.

Arkansas +11.5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 63.5. Ole Miss continues to be undervalued with the only blip on its resume a road loss to Alabama and giving up a lot of points in the weeks prior with an injury-ravaged defense. This wouldn’t be enough points even if Arkansas was in an ideal spot, which the Razorbacks are not with coach Sam Pittman’s job in jeopardy following three straight losses. Play: Ole Miss -11.5.

Fresno State -6 at Wyoming, over/under: 46.5. Fresno State’s offense has been outstanding, but it hasn’t come close to getting anywhere near a true test yet with an exceedingly weak lineup of opposing defenses including UNR and Kent State the last two weeks. Wyoming can actually defend and it may take time for Fresno State to adjust, but there’s little time to do so when playing against one of the slowest-paced teams in the nation. Play: Wyoming +6.

Other Games

Play: Minnesota +20.5 vs. Michigan

Play: Georgia Tech +21 at Miami

Play: Jacksonville State +3.5 at Middle Tennessee

Play: Rice -9.5 vs. Connecticut

Play: Tulsa +4 at Florida Atlantic

Lean: Marshall +6.5 at NC State

Lean: Colorado -4 at Arizona State

Lean: New Mexico State -5 vs. Florida International

Lean: Iowa -2 vs. Purdue

Lean: Florida State -24 vs. Virginia Tech

Lean: UL Monroe +12.5 vs. South Alabama

Lean: Boise State -9 vs. San Jose State

Lean: Arkansas State +17 at Troy

Lean: Mississippi State -20 vs. Western Michigan

Lean: North Texas +6 at Navy

Lean: Louisiana -1 vs. Texas State

Lean: USC -21.5 vs. Arizona

Lean: Vanderbilt +18.5 at Florida

Guess: Northern Illinois -5 at Akron

Guess: Oklahoma State +12.5 vs. Kansas State

Guess: Western Kentucky -5.5 at Louisiana Tech

Guess: Texas Tech pick’em at Baylor

Guess: Utah State +2 vs. Colorado State

Guess: Old Dominion +1.5 at Southern Miss

Guess: Oregon State -9.5 at California

Guess: Eastern Michigan -2 vs. Ball State

Guess: Boston College +3 at Army

Guess: Sam Houston +19.5 at Liberty

Guess: UAB +3.5 vs. South Florida

Guess: Toledo -19 at Massachusetts

Guess: Bowling Green +10.5 at Miami (Ohio)

Guess: Wake Forest +21 at Clemson

Guess: Kent State +27 at Ohio

Guess: Central Michigan -3 at Buffalo

Guess: Nebraska +3.5 at Illinois

Guess: TCU -6.5 at Iowa State

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or