Sunday Sweats: Seven bets to add to your NFL Week 12 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023 | 1:30 p.m.

Favorites have rolled in three straight games in the early portion of the Week 12 slate heading into Sunday’s action.

Thanksgiving got off to an inauspicious start for the majority of bettors Thursday morning when the Detroit Lions fell 29-22 to the Green Bay Packers as closing 8.5-point favorites. Several sports books reported Detroit as their biggest liability coming into the week.  

But the favorites continued to be popular in the next trio of contests, and the Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins didn’t provide as much of a sweat. They beat the Washington Commanders, Seattle Seahawks and New York Jets, respectively, by 74 combined points.

I’m here to help determine how to roll over your profit on those games into Sunday’s slate. It’s been a huge year for Sunday Sweats and there’s no reason it should stop now.

Read below to find bets in all seven of Sunday Sweats’ usual categories. Lines are the best currently available at publication time in Las Vegas with the sports book noted. Plays from other betting columns will be linked and tracked here at the bottom of the page. Check back Sunday for an additional prop in the Raiders’ gameday preview that will also be tracked as part of the Sunday Sweats.

Tasty Total (8-3, $944): Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals over 45 (Caesars/William Hill)

$165 to win $150

I’ve heard bettors suggest the sides market is incredibly tough this week, but I actually think the totals look more difficult to crack. There’s not much out there, so let’s head back to an old strategy and hope it pays off again: Betting on Cardinals’ games to go over. Yes, two of Arizona’s three games this month have actually gone under but it’s still an over team through and through as far as I’m concerned. The offense is competent; the defense is shoddy. With Matthew Stafford now healthy, the Rams are bound to put up points. The Cardinals might be able to keep up in their own right with Kyler Murray now behind center and looking as explosive as ever. This game may threaten 50 points.   

Two-(Or Three-) Team Teaser (5-6, -$320): Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5 & Atlanta Falcons +7.5 at -125 (Caesars/William Hill)

$250 to win $200

Both these games figure to be low-scoring and close with none of the four sides very well-positioned to pull away for a blowout victory. The Buccaneers have a better overall roster than the host Colts so it’s questionable that they’re a 2.5-point underdog in the first place. The Saints, on the contrary, are better than the Falcons but the gap between the two NFC South rivals isn’t very wide. I wouldn’t bet the Falcons on the point spread at +1.5, but shifting them through the three and the seven in a game totaled at over/under 41.5 points, is a profitable strategy long-term — at least at -120 odds, which are no longer available anywhere in Las Vegas. It’s marginal at -125, but that’s the best we’ve got to work with.   

Moneyline Parlay (3-8, $847): Kansas City Chiefs & Buffalo Bills at +200 (South Point)

$200 to win $400

Dust yourself off and try again. This was the exact moneyline parlay a week ago, and the Chiefs’ receivers conspired to make sure it didn’t cash with their collection of drops on Monday Night Football. I don’t know if there’s anything even the much-maligned unit can do to sink the team’s chances against the Raiders given the latter’s injury report. The Raiders could be without several key defenders, including Maxx Crosby and Robert Spillane, in their first game this season against the rival Chiefs. South Point’s -500 moneyline price on Kansas City is the cheapest in town, and not high enough. The book also luckily has the best price on Buffalo, at +150 heading to Philadelphia. The Bills have endured so many breaks going against them this season that at some point it’s bound to swing the other way. In the meantime, they’re undervalued and they have a better chance than the odds suggest at pulling the upset at the once-beaten Eagles.    

Player Prop (13-9, $822): Pat Freiermuth anytime touchdown at +450 (Caesars/William Hill)

$100 to win $450

In another continuation of last week, I guess I’m inadvertently desperate to hit a longshot anytime touchdown bet. That’s not really what led to this wager, though. I’m just bullish on Freiermuth, but no local sports books have his over/under yardage props posted yet. So I’ll fall back on a touchdown price that I think might be more valuable anyway. The Bengals have been one of the worst teams in the NFL defending tight ends this season, and Freiermuth can often be among the best at the position. He only returned from a hamstring injury two weeks ago and hasn’t done much in either game since — with four catches for 14 yards — but that’s diminishing his standing in the market. He’ll get back to making an offensive impact soon, likely against the Bengals here.  

Lookahead Line (5-5, $15): Carolina Panthers +5.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$110 to win $100

The pickings are incredibly slim in next week’s lookahead lines. I only had this spread a point off, but that’s better than any other game on the board. While I’ve tended to like Tampa Bay more than the market throughout the season, there are limits to that allegiance. Namely, when the Buccaneers are being asked to lay a decent amount of points. The Buccaneers’ offense is neither explosive nor efficient enough to count on the team to win by margin. The Panthers are dreadful but they aren’t going to quit on the season. Coach Frank Reich is fighting to keep his job, and the front office even has no incentive to lose games since the Chicago Bears own their upcoming first-round pick. It’s not easy to call on Carolina to get better late in the season but that’s what I think is the most likely outcome.  

Future Finding (1-3, $500): Derrick Henry to have most rushing yards in Sunday and Monday games at 8-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)

$125 to win $1,000

The Panthers are the worst team in the NFL at defending the run per the DVOA ratings. Imagine Henry going up against a rush defense this poor in a previous season. He would be something like +250 in this market. The 29-year-old isn’t what he once was, sure, but he’s also not as far removed as these odds imply. The total for Carolina at Tennessee is 36.5, meaning this will likely be a grinder of a game where both teams predominantly keep the ball on the ground. Henry hasn’t gotten as many opportunities lately because the Titans have been falling into big holes but that’s probably not going to happen in Week 12.

Non-football Play (8-3, $2,300): New York Islanders -147 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (Circa Sports)

$294 to win $200

The goalie matchup here is in all likelihood going to be Ilya Sorokin vs. Samuel Ersson. Few pairings in the NHL could be more lopsided. In fairness, Sorokin hasn’t played up to his standard so far this season. But it’s coming sooner or later. Sorokin was the best goalie in the NHL a year ago by advanced metrics and should be able to shutter an improved-but-still-lacking Flyers’ attack. Ersson has been one of the worst handful of goalies in the league all year. Sorokin hasn’t officially been named the starter but this line will move when the announcement comes. Bet it before then.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 43-38, $4,653

Weekend betting column year to date: 142-151-3, $13,322 

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000) Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Mississippi State under 6.5 wins at -145 ($435 to win $300) Colorado under 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Miami over 7.5 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Myles Garrett to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year ($300 to win $2,400); Florida over 5.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); Kentucky over 7 wins at +110 ($200 to win $220); Mississippi State under 6 wins at Even money ($100 to win $100); Oklahoma State over 6 wins at -140 ($280 to win $200); Texas Tech under 7.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); UCF over 7 wins at Even money ($200 to win $200); West Virginia under 5.5 wins at -180 ($360 to win $200); Air Force to win the Mountain West at 5-to-1 ($200 to win $1,000); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -120 ($120 to win $100); Oregon State under 8.5 wins at -135 ($135 to win $100); USC under 10 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Washington over 9 wins at -120 ($180 to win $150); Ohio State over 10.5 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Penn State under 9.5 wins at +130 ($150 to win $215); Iowa under 8.5 wins at -115 ($230 to win $200); Nebraska under 6.5 wins at -110 ($220 to win $200); Purdue over 4.5 wins at -140 ($210 to win $150); Duke under 6 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Miami over 7.5 wins at +116 ($200 to win $232); North Carolina under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Syracuse over 6 wins at +105 ($200 to win $210); Boise State under 8.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); New Mexico over 3 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Fresno State under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Hawaii over 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950); Miami Dolphins to not make the playoffs at +105 ($300 to win $315); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +850 ($200 to win $1,950); Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards at +550 ($200 to win $1,100); San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -165 ($660 to win $400); Western Kentucky to win Conference USA at +110 ($500 to win $550); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at -190 ($570 to win $300); Tampa Bay Buccaneers NOT to make the playoffs at +120 ($200 to win $240); Boston Celtics to win the NBA in-season tournament at +950 ($200 to win $1,900); Victor Wembanyama to win NBA Rookie of the Year at +125 ($400 to win $500); AJ Brown to win Offensive Player of the Year at 18-to-1 ($100 to win $1,800); Rudy Gobert to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year at 5-to-1 ($300 to win $1,500); Denver Broncos -1.5 vs. Cleveland Browns ($220 to win $200)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or