Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 12 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023 | 2 a.m.

The most impactful Week 12 game to the NFL playoff picture is also projected as the most competitive on the slate by the betting market.

That typically makes for a must-watch affair. Just not in this case.

Few outside of the South are pining to watch the New Orleans Saints’ trip to Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons Sunday morning. The NFC South rivals meet for the first time this year — the Falcons’ return trip to the Saints is scheduled for the final week of the season — with both teams having consistently disappointed after coming into season drawing some sleeper buzz.

It's highly unlikely either Atlanta (4-6 straight-up, 2-8 against the spread) or New Orleans (5-5 straight-up, 2-7-1 against the spread) will contend for much once in the playoffs, but one of them is probably going to get into the bracket. The odds priced the NFC South mostly as a two-team race coming into the year, and not much has changed.

The odds imply roughly an 80% chance the eventual champion is either New Orleans — currently -160 (i.e. risking $160 to win $100) to win the division at Circa Sports — or Atlanta —currently +300 (i.e. risking $100 to win $300) at Circa. Those prices could come close to flipping if the Falcons knock off the Saints on Sunday in a game some sports books list as a straight pick’em.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are also in the NFC South mix at +385, but the market has priced them as a cut below the aforementioned two all year.

The division has been the worst in the league but at least that’s made for tight standings. New Orleans could start to pull away by beating Atlanta, or the latter could prolong the back-and-forth with a victory.

The game doesn’t look riveting, but it’s undeniably important.

Read below to find a pick on New Orleans at Atlanta along with every other Week 12 contest. Games are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with individual records attached. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record for the year stands at 81-81-2.

Plays (27-23-1)

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 at Cincinnati Bengals The Bengals’ defense has somewhat quietly crumbled this season — ranking 25^th in the NFL by expected points added per play — and the offense is no longer going to be able to bail the team out with quarterback Joe Burrow missing the rest of the season. The Steelers’ offense should get a boost after the firing of coordinator Matt Canada, and it hasn’t been quite as poor as perception in the first place considering it’s played the toughest slate of opposing defenses in the NFL so far.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 at Indianapolis Colts New Colts coach Shane Steichen has done a tremendous job keeping his team afloat despite a pile of injuries, but at some point, the team’s basement-level roster quality exacerbated by the absences is going to catch up. There’s little doubt the Buccaneers have the stronger personnel, and they’ve been undervalued all year as evidenced by what’s tied for the NFL’s best against the spread record at 7-3.

Green Bay Packers +8 at Detroit Lions This spread is exactly what it would have been a month ago, if not a touch higher with money coming in on the Lions, when the Packers were mired in a four-game straight-up and against the spread losing streak. It therefore doesn’t accurately illustrate the clear improvements Green Bay has made, especially offensively, over the last three weeks. The Packers’ only point-spread loss in the span came in a 23-19 defeat to the Steelers as 3.5-point underdogs where they arguably outplayed the favorites.

Denver Broncos -1.5 vs. Cleveland Browns The Broncos have overachieved during their four-game winning streak, seemingly catching every break, and there will come a time to fade them. It’s just not yet. The Browns are a better overall team, but tasking rookie quarterback with his first road start in one of the NFL’s toughest venues should make this betting line a little higher.

Buffalo Bills +3.5 at Philadelphia Eagles The switch to Joe Brady as offensive coordinator appeared to provide a spark in the Bills’ 32-6 win over the Jets as 8.5-point favorites last week, and that might be all they need. Buffalo’s underlying statistical profile indicates it’s one of the best teams in the NFL, and a string of puzzling close losses still leaves it undervalued for now.

Leans (29-23-1)

Minnesota Vikings -3.5 vs. Chicago Bears Wait because this line is teetering and looks likely to touch -3, but the Vikings are the only way to look. The Bears have been playing much better recently so they deserve some adjustment, but at the same time, their horrendous form to start the season can’t be completely minimized. Minnesota has been steadier, even amid numerous injuries, and should therefore be around a 4-point favorite.

Los Angeles Rams +1 at Arizona Cardinals The return of quarterback Kyler Murray has lifted the Cardinals’ offense, but they’re still outmanned on defense. The Rams’ offense is therefore guaranteed to put up points, and its middling defense should be enough to at least keep Murray in check.

Washington Commanders +12.5 at Dallas Cowboys Washington quarterback Sam Howell’s rough outing in a 31-19 loss to the New York Giants as 7.5-point favorites last week — which included throwing three interceptions and taking four sacks — was more the exception than the norm. The second-year player is still leading the NFL in passing yards meaning he’s got the ability, worst-case scenario, to lead a charge for a backdoor cover of a number this high.

Houston Texans +2 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars This number is almost exactly what it would have been two months ago, right before the Texans’ 37-17 smashing of the Jaguars on the road as 7.5-point favorites. There was nothing fluky about that performance — the Texans racked up a sizable .6 net yard per play advantage — so the Texans should arguably be a small favorite instead of a small underdog in the home rematch.

New York Jets +9.5 vs. Miami Dolphins The Dolphins’ offense has slowed significantly from its record-breaking early-season pace, and the downturn has mostly come against defenses nowhere near as talented as the Jets’ unit. New York’s impotent offense likely precludes it from an outright upset, but the defense should be able to keep scoring down enough to slip within a near double-digit spread.

Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs haven’t given this many points on the road all season, and there’s no reason why it should start now against an improving Raiders’ side. Kansas City has blown out Las Vegas in its last two trips to Allegiant Stadium but the home team’s defense is no longer pushover.

Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens With everyone fixated on the Chargers’ repeated endgame collapses and coach Brandon Staley’s recent news-conference meltdown, this feels like the perfect place to buy low on the home team. The Ravens have been the best team in the AFC but traveling cross-country to take on a competent opponent is never an easy assignment, and -3 is probably the right number.

Guesses (25-35)

Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers The Titans have lost three consecutive games both straight-up and against the spread but they were all on the road against teams with above-average defenses. That’s a lot to ask out of new rookie quarterback Will Levis, who was notably excellent in his one home start and now faces another defense susceptible to getting beat by vertical passing attacks in the Panthers’ struggling unit.

San Francisco 49ers -7 at Seattle Seahawks Seattle has a negative point differential on the year — albeit only -2 — despite having faced one of the NFL’s weakest slate of opponents. The Seahawks’ schedule is amping up significantly starting now, and there’s only one correct response — sell high on them.

Atlanta Falcons +1 vs. New Orleans Saints It’s difficult to trust either of these teams but also hard to shake the feeling that it’s more reputation than results that has New Orleans so much stronger than Atlanta that it’s a road favorite in the matchup. The Falcons’ net yards per play on the season, +0.1, is actually a tad higher than the Saints’ mark of -0.2.

New England Patriots -3 at New York Giants There’s not a single set of respectable team ratings that could calculate any team other than the Giants being the worst in the NFL. That ignominy may mean this spread has moved too far, as the Patriots were as high as a 5.5-point favorite in this spot a week ago.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or