College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 13

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Ohio State to win the Big Ten. Ohio State to make the College Football Playoff. Ohio State to win the national championship. Marvin Harrison Jr. to win the Heisman Trophy.

I made all those bets before the college football season began, and for most of the year, I feared that I over-leveraged myself on the Buckeyes.

Now? Maybe not.

It all comes down to this — the most anticipated regular season game of the year Saturday morning when Ohio State travels to Michigan for a confrontation between the two undefeated rivals.

Harrison might be out of the Heisman race regardless of how the Buckeyes fare, and they’ll still have a lot of work to do to potentially win it all. But the first two of the aforementioned quartet of bets should be in great position if they pull the upset.

It will indeed take an upset, albeit not as big of a one as it looked like for the majority of the season. Michigan got as high as a 7-point favorite over Ohio State in lookahead lines, but the spread has settled at -3.5 going into this weekend.

It’s going to make for a massive sweat, and the same is surely true of those who have built just as large of positions on Michigan throughout the season.

This is what’s great about the final week of the regular season as it’s not only a major inflection point for many futures but also the conclusion of a bunch of others. Several of the win-total picks made over the course of the summer also come down to this weekend’s action.

Ohio State at Michigan isn’t the only major turning point coming on Saturday. Fellow playoff contenders Georgia, Alabama, Oregon, Washington, Texas and Florida State all find themselves in rivalry games where they can ill-afford a slip-up.

Bettors holding as many tickets on those teams as I do on Ohio State are in for their own suspenseful affairs. I’ve got Washington and Texas tickets too, but nothing will determine the overall fate of my futures portfolio more than how Ohio State performs.

Read below for my handicap on Ohio State at Michigan as well as every other Week 13 game. Find picks on every Week 12 game below. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record picking every game this season stands at 325-322-11 (75-84-1 on plays, 119-109-3 on leans and 131-129-7 on guesses).

Big Games

Texas Tech +12.5 at Texas, over/under: 54. Let’s bank on the Longhorns’ talent for the second week in a row. They haven’t often played to their potential this season, but they came close last week in a 26-16 win over Iowa State as 7-point favorites and should bury the Red Raiders if they keep the same form. Texas is dealing with a couple key injuries, but Texas Tech’s list of absences is much lengthier. Play: Texas -12.5.

Oregon State +14 at Oregon, over/under: 62.5. Oregon State arguably outplayed Washington in last week’s 22-20 loss as 1-point underdogs, but lost a coinflip largely due to a -2 turnover margin. Clean that up and the Beavers have a chance to give the Ducks a scare too. They haven’t lost by more than this spread to their Civil War rivals since 2018 — the first season under coach Jonathan Smith when he was in a complete rebuild. Lean: Oregon State +14.

Ohio State +3.5 at Michigan, over/under: 46. Although the perception moved significantly in Michigan’s favor earlier in the season, the metrics never strayed too far in grading Ohio State in the same tier. I wouldn’t touch this game with all my existing exposure, but I’ll stick with my gut and say the Buckeyes are just as good, if not better, than the Wolverines. It’s certainly looked that way in recent weeks. Guess: Ohio State +3.5.

Alabama -15 at Auburn, over/under: 49. I very liberally employ the “looking ahead” narrative — in fact, I bet it hasn’t happened in years in this column — but it sure seemed like Auburn was looking ahead to Alabama in last week’s 31-10 loss to New Mexico State as 35-point underdogs. The Tigers are flawed this year but they’ve played well enough at their peak to compete with anyone, as evidenced by a 27-20 loss to Georgia that forced the Bulldogs to stage a comeback. Play: Auburn +15.

Arizona -10 at Arizona State, over/under: 50. You could convince me that the Arizona -13 price that some sports books opened in this game was too high. You can’t convince me that it was three points off and deserved to fall all the way down to this key number. Arizona is far more explosive and sharper; two touchdowns is closer to the fair price. Lean: Arizona -10.

Washington State +16.5 at Washington, over/under: 68.5. The Cougars seem to have rediscovered their mojo with back-to-back games where they racked up nearly 500 yards. If quarterback Cam Ward plays to the level he’s done throughout the majority of this career, their offense is too strong to get buried. This could be another nail-biting Apple Cup. Guess: Washington State +16.5.

Florida State -6.5 at Florida, over/under: 50. Who knows? It’s hard but possible to quantify the drop-off from injured Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis to backup Tate Rodemaker. But throw in Florida’s similar switch from Graham Mertz, who had been underrated all year before getting hurt last week, to Max Brown and the variance multiplies. This one could go a lot of ways. Guess: Florida +6.5.

Georgia -24 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 60. The Bulldogs are cruising right now and finally looking like the back-to-back national champions with back-to-back 25-plus point covers in arguably the two hardest games on their schedule. The market has a tough time catching up to teams making big in-season leaps, especially ones already at the top of the ratings. This number should be closer to 28. Play: Georgia -24.

Big Plays

Miami -8.5 at Boston College, over/under: 47.5. Hurricanes quarterback Tyler van Dyke looked healthy in last week’s 38-31 loss to Boston College in a pick’em game, and his status was the main thing holding the team back from looking as strong as it had to start the year. There’s a big discrepancy in team speed here, and it’s in the Hurricanes’ favor. Play: Miami -8.5.

Virginia Tech -2.5 at Virginia, over/under: 51.5. Virginia Tech has played extremely well over the last couple weeks, importantly on both sides of the ball. Virginia has also shown strides but mostly on offense. The Cavaliers are 98^th in the nation in expected points added per play on defense, and Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones should be able to pick them apart both in the air and on the ground. Play: Virginia Tech -2.5.

James Madison -9.5 at Coastal Carolina, over/under: 50.5. James Madison lost its first game last week, 26-23 to Appalachian State as 10-point underdogs, but it was merely the culmination of a period where the Dukes have shown the limitations of their offense. Coastal Carolina has no problem scoring points, and needs a win to clinch a spot in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game so expect an all-out effort. Play: Coastal Carolina +9.5.

Missouri -7 at Arkansas, over/under: 54.5. The Razorbacks announced Sam Pittman would return for another season as coach, and I don’t get it. The players already didn’t appear to be performing for him, as Arkansas hasn’t come close to covering in three of its last four games. And none of those games were against a team as strong as Missouri, which can overwhelm Arkansas with talent. Play: Missouri -7.

Penn State -20.5 at Michigan State, over/under: 42.5. There’s now years’ worth of evidence supporting the notion that James Franklin will go out of his way to cover point spreads, no matter how big. This one may not even take much initiative, as Michigan State has looked outmatched against every top team it’s played — a group in which Penn State still belongs. Play: Penn State -20.5.

California +9.5 at UCLA, over/under: 52.5. Just because news of Chip Kelly’s sort-of, maybe imminent firing didn’t affect UCLA last week in a 38-20 upset over USC last week doesn’t mean it won’t now. California will be going all out to attain bowl eligibility and won’t be bothered by UCLA’s scorching offense pace — on the contrary, it’s also their preferred game state. Play: California +9.5.

Other Games

Play: Tennessee -26.5 vs. Vanderbilt

Play: South Alabama -5.5 at Texas State

Play: Nebraska -1.5 vs. Iowa

Play: Maryland -1 at Rutgers

Play: Purdue -3 vs. Indiana

Lean: San Jose State +3 at UNLV

Lean: BYU +17.5 at Oklahoma State

Lean: NC State +3 vs. North Carolina

Lean: Kansas State -9.5 vs. Iowa State

Lean: East Carolina -3 vs. Tulsa

Lean: Wyoming -10.5 at UNR

Lean: Arkansas State +2.5 at Marshall

Lean: West Virginia -8 at Baylor

Lean: Kansas -6 at Cincinnati

Lean: South Florida -5.5 vs. Charlotte

Lean: UTSA +4 at Tulane

Lean: Mississippi State +10 vs. Ole Miss

Lean: Toledo -10 at Central Michigan

Lean: Texas A&M +11 at LSU

Lean: Duke -6 vs. Pittsburgh

Lean: North Texas -3 vs. UAB

Lean: Louisville -7 vs. Kentucky

Lean: Liberty -17 at UTEP

Lean: Fresno State -5.5 at San Diego State

Lean: Louisiana -12 vs. UL Monroe

Lean: Miami (Ohio) -6 at Ball State

Lean: SMU -18 vs. Navy

Lean: Rice -4 vs. Florida Atlantic

Lean: New Mexico State +2.5 vs. Jacksonville State

Guess: Hawaii +6 vs. Colorado State

Guess: Western Kentucky -9.5 at Florida International

Guess: New Mexico +6.5 vs. Utah State

Guess: Northwestern +6 at Illinois

Guess: Memphis -11 at Temple

Guess: Old Dominion -2.5 vs. Georgia State

Guess: Syracuse -3 vs. Wake Forest

Guess: Oklahoma -9.5 vs. TCU

Guess: Wisconsin -1.5 at Minnesota

Guess: Akron +14.5 vs. Ohio

Guess: UCF -13.5 vs. Houston

Guess: Air Force +6.5 at Boise State

Guess: Colorado +22 at Utah

Guess: Stanford +26 vs. Notre Dame

Guess: South Carolina +7 vs. Clemson

Guess: Southern Miss +17 vs. Troy

Guess: UMass +2.5 vs. UConn

Guess: Sam Houston +3.5 vs. Middle Tennessee State

Guess: Georgia Southern +9 at Appalachian State

Guess: Northern Illinois -18.5 at Kent State

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or