Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 11 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Nov. 16, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Almost no matter what happens in this week’s highly anticipated Monday Night Football Super Bowl rematch, the biggest future markets won’t be affected much.

Unless Patrick Mahomes suffers a major injury, the Chiefs are still going to be favored to win the AFC and reach the Super Bowl win or lose. Likewise, unless Jalen Hurts suffers a major injury, the Eagles are still going to be in the top two favorites to win the NFC (along with the 49ers) and reach the Super Bowl.

The long-term market that’s going to the shift the most out of the game are odds to win the Most Valuable Player award. It’s a crowded race a little more than midway through the regular season, but Mahomes and Hurts are currently at the top of the board at odds of +275 (i.e. risking $100 to win $275) and +405, respectively, at Circa Sports.

Expect the quarterback who comes out on top of Eagles at Chiefs in Week 11 to establish himself as the definitive MVP favorite with seven weeks to play.

The MVP race feels like a rematch of sorts as Hurts had pulled away as an odds-on favorite over Mahomes for the NFL’s most prestigious honor late last year before a shoulder injury held him out of a pair of games. That allowed Mahomes to surpass him and capture the second MVP trophy of his career.

The competition is a little wider this year with Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (6-to-1), Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (7-to-1) and Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (9-to-1) all strongly in the conversation with a few others lurking.

But the pool of true contenders is finally going to start to shrink, and either Hurts of Mahomes will be floating on top going into next week’s slate of games.

Read below to find picks on every Week 11 point spread. Games are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with individual records attached. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record for the year stands at 72-76-1.

Plays (23-22-1)

Green Bay Packers +3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers Green Bay has shown sure signs of progress the last couple weeks, including posting an impressive 6.1 yards per play against a strong Pittsburgh defense in an unlucky 23-19 loss last week. Los Angeles meanwhile seems stuck in the mud, and played much poorer in a 41-38 loss to Detroit last week than the final score indicated considering it was outgained by nearly two yards per play.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 vs. Tennessee Titans Give the Jaguars a pass for a 34-3 loss to the 49ers as 3-point underdogs where they ran into a buzzsaw off a bye week against a team that’s probably the NFL’s best when fully healthy. All that no-show performance is doing now is keeping this spread depressed below a touchdown when it shouldn’t be considering Jacksonville is superior to Tennessee in every area.

Los Angeles Rams +1 vs. Seattle Seahawks Few quarterbacks in the NFL are more valuable than Matthew Stafford considering how stunted the Rams have looked with backup Brett Rypien during back-to-back losses. Stafford already helped the Rams blow out the Seahawks once this year, 30-13 as 4-point underdogs in Week 1, and that was without his top receiver, Cooper Kupp.

Houston Texans -4.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals The return of Kyler Murray might have helped repair the Cardinals’ offensive struggles, but they’re still a sieve on the other side of the ball. Arizona’s defense ranks 31^st in the league on defense by both the DVOA ratings and EPA per play. Houston rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud’s historic run with 826 passing yards in the last two weeks might not be over yet against an outmatched Arizona secondary.

Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles Philadelphia’s record is a game better than Kansas City’s, but the latter has been the better team by any other measure. The Chiefs should be at least a 3-point favorite at home considering they’re fifth in the league in expected points added per play (EPA) against a tougher schedule than the Eagles, which rate 10^th.

Leans (26-22-1)

Las Vegas Raiders +13.5 at Miami Dolphins This opened at a fairer price of Dolphins -10, but it’s inching into playable territory with all the action on the home team. The Raiders are playing a style that’s conducive to covering big spreads under interim coach Antonio Pierce, employing a slow pace and emphasizing the ground game with Josh Jacobs. Miami ranks 26^th in the league in defending the rush per the DVOA ratings.

Detroit Lions -9 vs. Chicago Bears Not only are the Lions stacked from a personnel standpoint and getting better with the continued development of many young players, but now coach Dan Campbell has grow into among the most shrewd in-game decision makers in the league. The betting market (and myself) have undervalued them all year, as evidenced by their league-best 7-2 against the spread record, and might be again with this spread moving in the Bears’ direction.

Cleveland Browns +1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers The line moved five points with the announcement that Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson was undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery to leave the job to local rookie/Bishop Gorman High product Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Some adjustment was necessary, but Watson had been limited with his injury all year so this large of one feels a tad overblown.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Denver Broncos The Broncos are trending upwards with three straight wins and have one of the biggest homefield advantages in the NFL, but the opening -1.5 spread seemed to more accurately capture both of those factors. Climbing to the NFL’s most important number of three is too much considering Minnesota has been better than Denver by any statistical measure, even since Josh Dobbs took over for Kirk Cousins at quarterback.

Guesses (23-32)

Buffalo Bills -7 vs. New York Jets It’s more fun to overreact to the Bills’ 24-22 loss to the Broncos on Monday Night Football as 8-point favorites than acknowledge it for what it actually was — perhaps the single flukiest result of the season. Buffalo outgained Denver by a monstrous 2.9 yards per play, showing its still one of the most dominant teams in the NFL if it can only cut down on the mind-numbing mistakes in a minor way.

Carolina Panthers +11 vs. Dallas Cowboys This number has jumped up 1.5 points since last week, which might be giving the Cowboys too much credit for blowing out the Giants 49-17 as 17.5-point favorites. As bad as the Panthers might be with the NFL’s worst record at 1-8 straight-up, they’re a lot more competent than the Giants when starting quarterback Tommy DeVito.

New York Giants +10 at Washington Commanders The Commanders haven’t won by this large of a margin in any game since the 2021-2022 season. They’ve only beaten the Giants by more than 10 points once in the last 23 meetings. Most of those matchups, in fairness, hold no predictive value but it’s an illustration of the Commanders hitting a peak in the market that they may not deserve.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12 at San Francisco 49ers Here’s another spread that might have bloated just a pinch too far in the favorite’s direction. San Francisco would have been the pick at -10, but Tampa Bay’s offense has been formidable in three straight covers and at the very least should threaten for a backdoor cover.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 at Baltimore Ravens The number is right, but it’s more comfortable to take the points in a divisional game between opponents that are extremely familiar with each other and rank near the very top of the NFL at their best. They won’t be at their best on Thursday Night Football because of injuries, but the Ravens are quietly just as banged up as the Bengals, which have the more notable hobbled players but not the lengthier overall injury report.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or