Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 16 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 21, 2023 | 2 a.m.

The NFL couldn’t have asked for a better setup when it decided to schedule a full day’s worth of Christmas Day games for the second straight year.

A pair of rivalry matchups to start the slate (Raiders at Chiefs and Giants at Eagles) were sure to bring at least a moderate amount of intrigue, but the night-time headliner is where the league really hit the jackpot.  

Baltimore at San Francisco shapes up as one of the best regular-season games ever from a quality standpoint.

Both teams are far above their respective conferences from an efficiency standpoint, and the runaway favorites to reach Super Bowl 58 on Feb. 11 at Allegiant Stadium. San Francisco over Baltimore and Baltimore over San Francisco are the leading options in the Super Bowl 58 exacta market at Caesars/William Hill sports books at prices of 8-to-1 and 10-to-1, respectively.

The market implies right below a 25% chance that the Ravens and the 49ers will emerge as the matchup for Las Vegas’ first-ever Super Bowl. That’s an inordinate share of the probability for one pairing at this part of the season.

Maybe it will shift downwards after Monday’s game where the 49ers are current 5.5-point favorites over the Ravens, but don’t count on it. The loser shouldn’t take too big of a hit considering the DVOA ratings grade Ravens at 49ers as the second-best regular-season matchup since 1980 (behind a battle of undefeated in the Patriots and Colts in 2007).  

The NFL gets to present its best product in front of what should be a massive, captive audience.

Read below to find my handicap on Baltimore at San Francisco along with every other game this week. Games are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with individual records attached. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record for the year stands at 112-107-5.

Plays (37-28-3)

Carolina Panthers +5 vs. Green Bay Packers Could Panthers’ No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young have possibly pulled off a coming-of-age moment in last week’s 17-play, 90-yard game winning drive over the Falcons? Carolina has quietly played better since the firing of coach Frank Reich, only narrowly getting outgained by a yards-per-play perspective under interim coach Chris Tabor.

Chicago Bears -4 vs. Arizona Cardinals The Bears have been an above-average team in the league from an efficiency standpoint since the start of November, a fact obscured by the fact that they’ve only gone 3-3 straight-up. But that record is largely a result of bad luck late in games that has seen them lose all three by a touchdown or less. The betting market shouldn’t adjust too much for recency, but it deserves to be more of a factor than it is in this line.  

New Orleans Saints +4 at Los Angeles Rams New Orleans dominated the line of scrimmage, especially on defense, in last week’s 24-6 blowout win over the New York Giants, and the Rams’ offensive line isn’t much better. Los Angeles’ skill players have been more impressive this year but New Orleans has the more complete roster on the whole.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Injuries are mounting for the Bengals, headlined by star receiver Ja’Marr Chase being expected to miss the game against the Steelers with a hurt shoulder. The Steelers already faced the Bengals under quarterback Jake Browning (who’s also on the injury report but will surely play) once and smothered them 16-10 as 2-point favorites on the road.

Cleveland Browns -2.5 at Houston Texans The Browns have outperformed by the Texans by any all-encompassing metric on the season — and that was with the latter getting a historically high level of play from rookie quarterback CJ Stroud. With Stroud projected to miss his second straight game with a concussion, this line should have moved at least all the way to -3 instead of just a couple insignificant points through the zero.

Leans (38-34-1)

New York Giants +12 at Philadelphia Eagles It’s hard to deny that this looks an ideal get-right spot for the Eagles coming off a three-game losing streak, but that’s more than factored into the line at this point. There’s no reason to pay a premium in a divisional game against a well-coached opponent, and there's even a chance the Eagles’ problems persist.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers This line will swing wildly in Jacksonville’s direction if quarterback Trevor Lawrence is ruled in, and that possibility can’t be minimized with more players exiting the NFL’s concussion protocol sooner recently. Even if Lawrence doesn’t play, this projects as a low-scoring game where either team will have a chance to win at the end.

Las Vegas Raiders +10 at Kansas City Chiefs This is more or less the same line as the first matchup between the teams, when the Chiefs stomped the Raiders 31-17 on the road, but the latter looks a lot healthier now. Kansas City’s offense remains a shell of its former self – sitting eighth in the league by expected points added per play — to make laying double digits unadvisable.   

Denver Broncos -6.5 vs. New England Patriots The spread has unfortunately shifted into place after sitting a bit low last week into its reopening, but maybe the Broncos are desperate enough to stay in the playoff race that they deserve to be a full 7-point favorite. The Patriots aren’t playing with any sort of urgency already, and it’s only going to be more difficult to tap into their best at elevation.    

Guesses (37-45-1)

Baltimore Ravens +5.5 at San Francisco 49ers The Ravens’ defense — which is allowing .1 yards per play less than any other team — has been almost as devastating as the 49ers’ offense — which is gaining .2 yards per play more than any other team. There’s no reason to bet against San Francisco with as well as it’s played during a six-game winning streak, but it does appear to be at its market peak right now, a position that typically preludes some regression.    

Tennessee Titans +2.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks Seattle got back into the playoff conversation with a 20-17 victory over Philadelphia as closing 5-point underdogs on Monday Night Football, but it was still outgained and looked outmatched for wide swaths of the game. The Seahawks will likely benefit from the return of quarterback Geno Smith this week, but it’s not easy going across the country on a short week.

Indianapolis Colts +1.5 at Atlanta Falcons Colts coach Shane Steichen has repeatedly found inventive ways to raise the play of a mediocre-at-best roster. Falcons coach Arthur Smith has repeatedly found ways to hamper the performance of an average roster. The coaching mismatch couldn’t be more pronounced, and is the only thing to fall back on in a game where the number otherwise looks right.  

Los Angeles Chargers +12.5 vs. Buffalo Bills Between getting extra time to prepare off a Thursday Night Football appearance (albeit a 42-point loss) and a potential boost from a new coach in interim Giff Smith, the Chargers have a lot working in their favor. They should be certain to put on a better performance; the only question is whether it will be enough against a Bills’ side playing as well as any team in the NFL.     

Miami Dolphins -1.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys These teams are evenly-matched and therefore the number seems right, but the Dolphins are more likely to get positive news on the injury front. Miami seemed to hold out a handful of banged-up players who could have gone if necessary last week against the Jets — headlined by receiver Tyreek Hill — in preparation for Dallas. The Cowboys, meanwhile, saw a couple key contributors — including guard Zack Martin — go down in a 31-10 shellacking at the Bills as 2.5-point underdogs.

New York Jets -3 vs. Washington Commanders The Commanders came on late last week to make the score somewhat respectable in their 28-20 loss to the Rams as 6.5-point underdogs, but for much of the game, they looked lifeless and unmotivated. Asking for any better out of Washington in a second straight road game against likely the best defense it’s seen all season feels like a stretch.    

Detroit Lions -3 at Minnesota Vikings This line is exactly right, so the pick comes down to a straight numbers play. The Vikings would be worth a look at +3.5 but bettors interested in that side would be better off waiting to see if that price appears. In the meantime, it’s always better to lay -3.  

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or