Sunday Sweats: Seven bets to add to your NFL Week 15 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Dec. 16, 2023 | 6:30 p.m.

The New York Jets and Chicago Bears were both heroes in last week’s Sunday Sweats.

Now they turn to villains.

Week 14 brought another big result for the column largely because of a parlay that paid nearly 6-to-1 on both the Bears and Jets pulling upsets over the Lions and Dolphins, respectively.

Now both sides seem to be getting newfound respect in the market, and I’m hoping it’s too much.

This week’s seven bets include wagers against both the Jets and the Bears.

Read below to find bets in all seven of Sunday Sweats’ usual categories. Lines are the best currently available at publication time in Las Vegas with the sports book noted. Plays from other betting columns will be linked and tracked here at the bottom of the page. The Raiders’ gameday prop bet, which is tracked here, is already a winner this week to bring the profit since the last column to $936 on a 6-2 record.

Tasty Total (11-3, $1,444): New York Jets at Miami Dolphins under 36.5 (STN Sports)

$220 to win $200

The plan all week has been to use this game in the totals category, and I’m sticking to it even though that might be stubbornness that ends up costing me. I still think there’s value at 36.5, but don’t go any lower. This was a lot much more attractive around 40 upon open and even a point or two lower most of the week. But everyone is now catching on to the conditions in South Florida. It’s going to be rainy, and more importantly, windy. Barring a dramatic shift in the forecast, three touchdowns is going to be more than enough to win this game. Miami’s offense is sputtering anyway, and the Jets’ has been a chore to watch for the vast majority of the season. There’s not as much room as before, but the under still represents a strong bet.

Two-(Or Three-) Teaser (6-8, -$620): Kansas City Chiefs -2.5, Miami Dolphins -2.5, Dallas Cowboys +7.5 at +140 (Boyd Sports)

$150 to win $210

It’s a rough teaser week to begin with, and Miami has moved out of range to get through the 3 and the 7 at Caesars/William Hill, which has the best (though still unfortunate) price on two-teamers at -125. Boyd has all three of these sides in the right pocket, but its -140 price on two-teamers is untenable. Getting a three-teamer at +140 is a little bit better mathematically, so let’s take a risk and tie them all together. If the Chiefs and Dolphins are the teams they’ve been cracked up to be most of the year, then they shouldn’t have a problem with the Patriots and Jets, respectively. I’m a little more worried about the Cowboys considering I expect the Bills to win the game. But the total is crashing, from 52 to 49, and a lower-scoring environment should make for less of a margin of victory.   

Moneyline Parlay (4-10, $1,053): Green Bay Packers & Seattle Seahawks +289 (STN Sports)

$150 to win $433.50

I’ve tried to ladder up and hit longer-legged parlays after cashing two-teamers earlier in the year, but it’s never worked so let’s stick to the tried and true formula. The Packers are one of the favorites I like best this week, and the Seahawks have become one of the underdogs I like best. STN conveniently has the best price on the Packers to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at -170, and has one of the best prices on the Seahawks to knock off the Eagles, at +145. This could hopefully wind up the most memorable personal moment involving these two teams since the Fail Mary more than 11 years ago.  

Player Prop (17-11, $1,302): Jerome Ford over 14.5 receiving yards at -120 (BetMGM)

$240 to win $200

The Bears’ defense has been playing much better, but their biggest weakness remains defending opposing running backs in the pass game. Chicago ranks No. 29 in the DVOA covering running backs. Cleveland has just the guy in just the situation to take advantage. Ford was already a skilled pass-catcher, but now looks like he’s in line to get more opportunities with Joe Flacco stepping in as the Browns’ quarterback. Ford tied a season high with 33 receiving yards in his first game with Flacco, a loss to the Rams two weeks ago, and then had 31 last week in a win over the Jaguars. Flacco has targeted him nine times. At that rate, Ford should go over this total for the foreseeable future.  

Lookahead Line (7-6, $95): Denver Broncos -5.5 vs. New England Patriots (Caesars/William Hill)

$220 to win $200

The Broncos are still in the playoff hunt and will be doing everything they can to win next week. That’s more than can be said for the lowly Patriots. A Christmas Eve trip to Denver wouldn’t be easy even if everything was going better for New England. The Broncos’ homefield advantage is nothing to downplay even though that’s exactly what this line appears to be doing. Denver also gets an extra day to recover and repair off a game tonight in Detroit. Everything points to the Broncos winning this game to the point that the line should be -7 in favor of the home team.

Future Finding (1-4, $375): Dawson Knox to score the first touchdown in Cowboys at Bills at 26-to-1 (Boyd Sports)

$40 to win $1,040

Does this count as a future? It’s going to have to for the purposes of this edition of the column. Most traditional future markets are off the board with the three games taking place today. Luckily, that gives me a chance to dip into one of the most intoxicating — albeit not necessarily most profitable — markets for the first time ever in this space. And Knox is a great bet at this price in perhaps the biggest game of the day. The Bills’ tight end is reportedly fully recovered from a wrist injury, but this line implies that he's not going to be back in his usual form. But why not? Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen loves looking for Knox around the end zone, and he just might find him against a Dallas defense that has struggled all year in the middle of the field and against tight ends. Knox had three catches for 36 yards against Kansas City in his first game last week, but should top the statistics line Sunday afternoon.

Non-football Play (10-4, $2,406): Houston Rockets +7 -112 at Milwaukee Bucks (Boyd Sports)

$224 to win $200

The Bucks are playing on a back-to-back, and the Rockets are not a team you want to play on a back-to-back. Effort is the revelatory Rockets’ calling card, as they throw a deep set of bodies from one of the NBA’s youngest rosters. The Bucks, on the other hand, have one of the NBA’s oldest rosters. There’s a chance Milwaukee could even rest some players Sunday, which is why most sports books have this game off the board. When it resurfaces in full Sunday, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rockets were more widely around a 5-point underdog.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 56-47, $5,600

Weekend betting column year to date: 170-173-4, $14,119

Weekend betting column all-time: 648-677-11, $32,648 

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000) Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950); Miami Dolphins to not make the playoffs at +105 ($300 to win $315); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +850 ($200 to win $1,950); Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards at +550 ($200 to win $1,100); San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -165 ($660 to win $400); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at -190 ($570 to win $300); Tampa Bay Buccaneers NOT to make the playoffs at +120 ($200 to win $240); Boston Celtics to win the NBA in-season tournament at +950 ($200 to win $1,900); Victor Wembanyama to win NBA Rookie of the Year at +125 ($400 to win $500); AJ Brown to win Offensive Player of the Year at 18-to-1 ($100 to win $1,800); Rudy Gobert to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year at 5-to-1 ($300 to win $1,500); Carolina Panthers +5.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($110 to win $100) Tyreek Hill to win Offensive Player of the Year at Even money ($500 to win $500); South Carolina women's basketball to win NCAA Tournament at +450 ($400 to win $1,800); Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. Chicago Bears in Week 15 ($220 to win $200)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or