College football by the odds: Bowl pick’em against the spread Part 1

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Dec. 15, 2023 | 2 a.m.

The Los Angeles Bowl hosted by Rob Gronkowski on Saturday night at SoFi Stadium was supposed to be the headlining affair of the first week of college football’s postseason.

It’s got a pair of powerhouse west-coast programs in UCLA and Boise State, with the latter fresh off having won a conference championship via beating UNLV at Allegiant Stadium in the Mountain West final. But a lot of the shine has worn off after both schools lost players in the transfer portal including their highest-profile quarterbacks.

Boise State’s Taylen Green committed to Arkansas earlier this week while UCLA’s Dante Moore is reportedly mulling a return to his native Michigan.

The diminished pairing is an appropriate spotlight game for the first night of bowl season. This is now how virtually how all the matchups outside of the College Football Playoff operate.

Analyzing the transfer-portal and opt-outs and quantifying their impacts is arguably the most important part of bowl handicapping. It requires a lot different approach than 13 years ago when this bowl pick’em column started.

I’ve fortunately been able to evolve over the years, and had the best bowl season in the history of the column on “plays” last year with an 11-2-1 record to bolster an overall 23-18-1 mark in the postseason. I’m also coming into this year on a heater having gone 2-0 on plays on championship weekend to bring the season record picking almost every game to 365-343-13 (86-89-1 on plays, 132-114-5 on leans, 147-140-7 on guesses) against the spread.

Read below for handicaps of the first 10 bowl games on the schedule this year. Check back for four more editions of this column all the way to the national title game on Monday Jan. 8, 2024. Picks are labeled in one of the three aforementioned confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Myrtle Beach Bowl at 8 a.m. Saturday in Myrtle Beach, S.C.: Georgia Southern +3.5 vs. Ohio, over/under: 49. The Bobcats’ offense is going to look completely different between transfer-portal entries and injury absences, but the existing core had underachieved all year anyway. This is a pretty evenly matched game from a talent perspective, and a 5.5-point line move after Ohio opened a slight favorite feels unwarranted. Lean: Ohio +3.5.

Celebration Bowl at 9 a.m. Saturday in Atlanta: Howard +6.5 vs. Florida A&M, over/under: 50.5. I don’t follow or handicap the Football Championship Subdivision, and it would be disingenuous to suggest otherwise. But this bowl has risen in prominence and is now part of virtually all pick’em pools so I did a 10-minute crash course to try to come out with a pick. My conclusion? The Rattlers’ statistical profile looks a lot more sterling than the Bison’s, to the point where it seems like they should be pushing double-digit favorite status. Lean: Florida A&M -6.5.

New Orleans Bowl at 11:15 a.m. Saturday in New Orleans: Jacksonville State -3 vs. Louisiana, over/under: 59.5. This could certainly qualify as a good spot for Jacksonville State, which defied all expectations in its first year as a Football Bowl Subdivision programs and claimed a postseason spot despite not initially being eligible. But is that worth point in what otherwise looks like a pick’em matchup against a more established team playing in its home state? Guess: Louisiana +3.

Cure Bowl at 12:30 p.m. Saturday in Orlando, Fla.: Miami (Ohio) vs. Appalachian State, over/under: 44.5. With Miami (Ohio) down to a third-string quarterback, this game offered major value upon opening as low as Appalachian State -3 but it’s since adjusted more into place. It’s still a bit difficult to imagine an already middling-at-best RedHawks’ offense keeping up with an explosive Mountaineers’ attack though. Lean: Appalachian State -6.5.

New Mexico Bowl at 2:45 p.m. Saturday in Albuquerque, N.M.: New Mexico State -3.5 vs. Fresno State, over/under: 51.5. Fresno State’s biggest loss is coach Jeff Tedford, who stepped down for the bowl game with a health issue. Tedford is a quality veteran coach but moving two points over the key number of three may overstate his importance in a game where the Bulldogs have the better roster. Play: Fresno State +3.5.

Los Angeles Bowl at 4:30 p.m. Saturday in Inglewood, Calif.: UCLA -4.5 vs. Boise State, over/under: 49.5. I bet UCLA -2.5 shortly after this game opened but can no longer advise taking that side in good conscience. The Bruins still have the better team but they’ve been weakened by an excess of departures. None are as impactful as Green, but the totality may have an effect and should prevent UCLA from laying this large of a number. Guess: Boise State +4.5.

Independence Bowl at 6:15 p.m. Saturday in Shreveport, La.: California +2.5 vs. Texas Tech, over/under: 57.5. Here’s a spot where I also bet a 2.5-point favorite at open, but the line curiously hasn’t moved much since. It’s hard to figure out why, as Texas Tech lost a spate of players but is also getting a number of injured starters back. A big part of California’s success this season was offensive coordinator Jake Spavital who’s since bailed to take the same position at Baylor. Play: Texas Tech -2.5.

Famous Toastery Bowl at 11:30 a.m. Monday in Charlotte, N.C.: Western Kentucky +2.5 vs. Old Dominion, over/under: 55.5. Western Kentucky is more skilled but Old Dominion has the more intact roster and runs a unique offense that’s difficult to prepare for under ideal circumstances. The Hilltoppers had a cluster of offensive linemen exit to the portal and underachieved this season even at full strength, failing to cover in five of their last six games. Guess: Old Dominion -2.5.

Frisco Bowl at 6 p.m. Tuesday in Frisco, Texas: UTSA -12.5 vs. Marshall, over/under: 52.5. The price has gotten prohibitive but it’s hard to believe in Marshall’s anemic offense having much of a prayer to keep up with UTSA. Roadrunners coach Jeff Traylor maintained his roster well and it should be motivated to win the program’s first-ever bowl game as a fitting sendoff to quarterback/program legend Frank Harris. Guess: UTSA -12.5.

Boca Raton Bowl at 5 p.m. Thursday in Boca Raton, Fla.: South Florida vs. Syracuse, over/under: 60.5. It’s been all positive lately from the Bulls perspective with rising young quarterback Byrum Brown announcing he would stay with the program, and negative on the Orange’s side as a coaching staff and much of the roster transitions. The only hesitation is that this line would have been Syracuse -10 or larger early in the season, so it’s hard to sell the Bulls too confidently. Guess: South Florida +3.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or