Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 15 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Twenty teams are still listed with yes/no odds to make the playoffs at Circa Sports.

That’s a lot for this time of year, and a reflection of how wide-open the postseason race remains in both the NFC and AFC heading into the final four weeks of the season. Perhaps even more telling, nine of those 20 teams hold prices below -200 (i.e. risking $200 to win $100) on both the yes and no options.

Four teams are seen as virtual 50/50 propositions — the Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Packers are the lone side at a straight pick’em, with -110 on both the yes and no, coming off a 24-22 Monday Night Football loss as 6-point favorites at the New York Giants.

The Buccaneers went the other way last week and saw their odds improve, climbing to +110 on the yes with the no coming back at -130, after upsetting the Falcons 29-25 as 2-point underdogs.

That final-minute comeback doomed the Week 14 pick’em to a 2-2-1 week on plays, the first non-winning record in a month, and put a bet on the Buccaneers to miss a playoffs in jeopardy.

There’s still a lot of work to be done to maintain a profitable regular season, starting with Week 15.

Read below to find handicaps on every game this week. Games are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with individual records attached and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record for the year stands at 103-101-4.

Plays (36-26-2)

Cleveland Browns -3 vs. Chicago Bears The Browns’ defense has fallen off a bit in the last two weeks, but it still sits as the best in the NFL by both the DVOA ratings and expected points added (EPA) per play. The unit is ultra-athletic and versatile, making it the perfect candidate to slow the improved play out of Bears quarterback Justin Fields and his counterparts.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 at Indianapolis Colts Buy low on the Steelers, which are still ahead of the Colts by several metrics. Pittsburgh is No. 11 in the DVOA ratings while Indianapolis is 20^th. The price is good enough to bet already, but it’s teetering on 3 and it might be wise to wait and see if it gets to the key number.

Green Bay Packers -3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers The betting market has diminished homefield advantage as much as ever this season, and that might be the correct approach in most instances, but there are spots where it still looms large. This should be one of those situations, as warm-weather teams traditionally underperform at Lambeau Field late in the season and the Buccaneers aren’t even a particularly good one.

New Orleans Saints -6 vs. New York Giants The Saints have consistently underperformed, but the gap between the talent on their roster and what the Giants have at their disposal is much larger than this point spread implies. Maybe New Orleans never lives up to its potential but it’s more likely everything clicks for at least a game or two while in a tight divisional race down the stretch.

Leans (35-33-1)

Minnesota Vikings +3.5 at Cincinnati Bengals Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ swarming scheme could be just the antidote to slow the Jake Browning fever spreading in NFL circles after the longtime Bengals backup quarterback broke out in back-to-back wins. Further adding to the difficulty ahead of Browning is an ankle injury to star receiver Ja’Marr Chase.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 at Las Vegas Raiders Laying points with a team that got shutout in its previous game, and not to mention exacerbated many existing injuries on a short week, doesn’t seem wise. First-time coaches like Raiders interim head Antonio Pierce also traditionally struggle in their first Thursday Night Football assignment.

Los Angeles Rams -6.5 vs. Washington Commanders Washington’s defense is the worst in the league by both DVOA and EPA per play, and given the mediocre-at-best pieces, there’s only so much it could have done during a bye week to improve. Expect a shootout — the over/under of 49 points looks low if anything — and in a shootout, laying a touchdown isn’t as big of an ask as a game in a normal scoring environment.

Miami Dolphins -8.5 vs. New York Jets This spread was as high as -13 ahead of the Dolphins’ 28-27 Monday Night Football loss to the Titans as 13.5-point favorites. The Jets would have been the clear pick at double digits, but a five-point swing is too much especially with Dolphins star receiver Tyreek Hill looking likely to play through an ankle injury.

Guesses (32-45-1)

Arizona Cardinals +13.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers The Cardinals have covered in three of their last four games since Kyler Murray returned behind center and may continue to be undervalued. The 49ers are playing at a historically efficient level but giving two touchdowns in a divisional game is a high bar.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens Baltimore remains a run-first offense and Jacksonville sits first in the league in defending the rush per DVOA. The Jaguars’ defense has dropped off the last two weeks, but over the larger sample of the full season, it’s been one of the best in the league and capable of slowing any opponent.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 at New England Patriots These odds are just about right, but this is typically the time of year when the Chiefs come alive and start to hit their peak under quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The Patriots have nothing left to play for while the Chiefs, despite losing four of their last six games, still have a shot at the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

Houston Texans +2.5 at Tennessee Titans Taking the underdog by default in a game with an over/under of 38.5 points, which looks a little high considering these teams’ current states. Houston might have the most alarming injury report in the league — headlined by surefire Offensive Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud being in concussion protocol — but could get some positive news to move this spread before kickoff.

Seattle Seahawks +4 vs. Philadelphia Eagles Philadelphia will probably get it together in time for the playoffs, but it’s not going to be easy for the ascent to start here as it caps one of the toughest scheduling stretches ever with a trip across the country. Seattle’s offense is explosive if nothing else, and Philadelphia has given up big plays consistently this year.

Buffalo Bills -1.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys Flip a coin because this spread is right-on between two of the best teams in the NFL. Such a coin has more often landed against the Bills recently given all their bad luck in close games — they’re 3-6 in games decided by six points or less despite last week’s 20-17 nail-biting win over the Chiefs as 1.5-point underdogs — so some positive regression could be headed their way.

Denver Broncos +4.5 at Detroit Lions The number looks exactly right, but if forced to pick, let’s hope there’s some signal in the recent returns with the Broncos continuing their rise and the Lions slipping at a rapid rate. Detroit’s defense has been a bottom 10 unit in the league over the last month and its injury report is also lengthier than Denver’s.

Carolina Panthers +3 vs. Atlanta Falcons Carolina’s performance last week wasn’t nearly as bad as the 28-6 final score implied as the Panthers outgained the touchdown-favorite Saints and ran the ball highly efficiently. If the Panthers can just find a way to finish a few drives, they’re trending towards pulling an upset for their second win soon.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or