Sunday Sweats: Seven bets to add to your NFL Week 13 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023 | 1 p.m.

Grading day has come.

The “previous pending wagers” list at the bottom of the page is now cut down significantly as most of the college football futures placed in the column since August are now complete.  

I just wish all the work resulted in more profit, or to be more specific, any profit. 

The win totals actually came out slightly in the black, but that was undone by a couple big conference futures placed throughout the course of the year. Regular-season futures in full therefore come out to a $150 loss on a 15-13-1 record.

That will be reflected in the “Weekend betting column year to date” record at the bottom of the page since they were placed before the start of the NFL and Sunday Sweats taking over.

The end of college football is always bittersweet, but the upside is more time to hone in on the NFL — especially in this column. Sunday Sweats has really taken off at the end of the NFL season for each of the last three years and that’s the obvious aim again in 2023.

It’s been a stronger season in the NFL than in college for the blog, and I’m going to keep pushing forward.

Read below to find bets in all seven of Sunday Sweats’ usual categories. Lines are the best currently available at publication time in Las Vegas with the sports book noted. Plays from other betting columns will be linked and tracked here at the bottom of the page. 

Tasty Total (9-3, $1,094): Denver Broncos at Houston Texans under 47.5 (Boyd Sports)

$220 to win $200

Denver’s defense has gotten undoubtedly better during its five-game win streak. Denver’s offense hasn’t. That’s not to say the Broncos have been horrible putting points on the board; rather, they've just kind of been average. There’s a somewhat similar tale on the other sideline. Texans rookie phenom C.J. Stroud has tailed off a bit from his historic heights in the last couple weeks. He’s still been one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL, but for the rest of the season, it’s more likely he’s towards the middle in the rankings than at the very top. Houston’s defense is no sieve, which is part of the reason why each of its last two games have gone under the total. Make it three straight today.

Two-(Or Three-) Team Teaser (6-6, -$120): New York Jets +8 & Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 at -125 (Caesars/William Hill)

$250 to win $200

The Jaguars are one of the best imaginable teaser legs. The Jets are one of….the shakiest but they’re the only real option to also push through the ever-valuable 3 and 7 to pair with the Jaguars. Considering the total in New York’s game with Atlanta is set at 33.5, getting +8.5 should suffice even with Tim Boyle at the controls of the offense. Perhaps a better choice would have been pairing Atlanta with a side next week — Raiders +8.5 hosting the Vikings looks worthwhile — but multi-week teasers are never how Sunday Sweats has operation. I won’t start now but reserve the right to at some point before the end of the season as single-week options dwindle.

Moneyline Parlay (3-9, $647): Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns & Jacksonville Jaguars at +1457 (South Point)

$50 to win $728.50

I’ve been conservative in recent weeks in this category and gotten some painful losses to show for it, i.e. Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s end zone drop in Week 11 and Jake Elliott’s 59-yard field goal in Week 12. So let’s just go straight degenerate this time around, throw a bunch of stuff into a bet slip and hope for the best. South Point has the best moneylines on nearly all these sides to make for an extra-large payout. Counting on new Browns quarterback Joe Flacco is not something I expected in 2023, but he should be an upgrade from Dorian Thompson-Robinson and P.J. Walker. Getting +175 at the Rams is too much. The Panthers are the same price, and the opposing Buccaneers have quietly been just as feeble on offense recently. The 49ers are juggernauts at full strength, and their injury report is so much cleaner than the Eagles that they could be laying more than -150. As for the Jaguars (-425), it might be famous last words, but I can’t imagine them losing. The teaser wasn’t enough; let’s get more exposure on Jacksonville.

Player Prop (14-10, $922): DeVonta Smith under 59.5 receiving yards (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$220 to win $200

The former Heisman Trophy winner is on a hot streak, but it’s all come against matchups a lot more forgiving than this one. The 49ers are the No. 1 team in the NFL in defending No. 2 receivers, per DVOA, and are also stingy deep down the right side of the field where Smith does his best work. If the Eagles want to upset the 49ers, they’ll need to lean more on top receiver A.J. Brown’s style. Smith is in for some regression right when his stock is at its peak. Sell high.

Lookahead Line (6-5, $215): Atlanta Falcons -2 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (SuperBook)

$220 to win $200

This is disrespectful to the Falcons. Sure, they aren’t a thrill to watch but they’ve been better than the Buccaneers by just about any measure this season. That includes the first meeting between these teams at Tampa Bay where Atlanta won 16-13 with a score that was a lot closer than it arguably should have been. Desmond Ridder fumbled into the end zone for a touchback running into for a touchdown or else the Falcons would have prevailed by double digits. I made this number just short of Atlanta -3.5 — a juiced -3 would be posted if I was running the sports book — so -2 is far too short. It might be fair if this were at a neutral site, but Atlanta is playing at home and should put away Tampa Bay for the second time this year.

Future Finding (1-4, $375): Tyreek Hill to win Offensive Player of the Year at Even money (Caesars/William Hill)

$500 to win $500

This is a way of admitting I was wrong. I built up a big Offensive Player of the Year portfolio going against the Dolphins’ speedster this year, headlined by positions on current fringe contenders A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb. But I’m now doubting they have enough time to catch to actually catch Hill, so I’m jumping in and adding a Hill position that hopefully can still allow me to escape with some profit in the market. Christian McCaffrey is considered the other primary frontrunner with Hill, but the former’s numbers don’t stand up to the latter’s. Hill is shooting for the NFL record for receiving yards, exactly the type of milestone this award traditionally honors, and should be the odds-on favorite this week. With a plus-matchup against the Commanders in Week 13, this might be the last time he’s available at Even money or better.  

Non-football Play (8-4, $2,006): Vegas Golden Knights -182 vs. Washington Capitals (Circa Sports)

$364 to win $200

Yes, the Golden Knights are beaten-up with stalwart goalie Adin Hill now joining their cluster of sidelined defenders. But the Capitals aren’t fully healthy either with three key forwards (Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie and Max Pacioretty) out of the lineup. Oh, and Washington just isn’t very good in the first place. The Capitals’ two-game west-coast win streak is a mirage, as they were roundly outplayed against the Kings despite a 2-1 victory and then had to hold on against the flatlining Ducks. Hesitance is required with Vegas because of its injury situation at the moment, but this is one situation where it should be a -200 favorite or slightly more.    

Sunday Sweats year to date: 47-42, $4,684

Weekend betting column year to date: 161-168-4, $13,203 

Weekend betting column all-time: 639-672-11, $31,732 

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000) Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950); Miami Dolphins to not make the playoffs at +105 ($300 to win $315); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +850 ($200 to win $1,950); Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards at +550 ($200 to win $1,100); San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -165 ($660 to win $400); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at -190 ($570 to win $300); Tampa Bay Buccaneers NOT to make the playoffs at +120 ($200 to win $240); Boston Celtics to win the NBA in-season tournament at +950 ($200 to win $1,900); Victor Wembanyama to win NBA Rookie of the Year at +125 ($400 to win $500); AJ Brown to win Offensive Player of the Year at 18-to-1 ($100 to win $1,800); Rudy Gobert to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year at 5-to-1 ($300 to win $1,500); Carolina Panthers +5.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($110 to win $100)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or