College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of Week 1

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Aug. 30, 2023 | 2 a.m.

The gap between college football’s power conference teams and their midmajor counterparts has never been wider.

That’s not a fact; it’s a theory — one that will hold major implications for how I bet the early portion of the season, or at least Week 1. Nonconference play is always predominantly packed with Power Five conference squads taking on Group of Five conference opposition.

It’s never been a fair fight with the former typically lavishing the latter with a major payday to be a sacrificial lamb. But at least the lower-revenue schools had a better chance when they could spend years building up their programs to reach a peak with a core group of players.

In the age of the transfer portal, that rarely happens anymore. The checkbooks come out for name, image and likeness deals, and most of the breakout players from the lowe -level wind up finishing their college careers at a bigger-name school.

The betting market may not have fully accounted for the trend because several of the spreads in games fitting the aforementioned criteria look a little low going into the first full college football slate of the year. In other words, I wound up on a lot of favorites in College football by the odds, where every Football Bowl Subdivision is handicapped.

It’s a bit uncomfortable, but I’m trusting the process, one that got me off to a fast start last week to continue on last year’s strong finish to the season. I hit on both plays in Week 0, though went only 3-4 picking every game (2-0 on plays, 0-1 on leans, 1-3 on guesses).

The first game of the year was a winning play as a powerhouse program stifled a smaller, overmatched opponent when Notre Dame crushed Navy 42-3 as 20.5-point favorites. I’ll hope there’s more of where that came from, at least in a particular handful of games, this weekend.

Read below for picks on every Week 1 FBS games. The eight biggest games each week will get a write-up along with a handful of additional plays. The rest of the contests will be listed in rough order of confidence. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time.

Big Games

Florida +6.5 at Utah, over/under: 45.5. It’s a tough trip for the Gators to go into elevation in Salt Lake City, and the Utes are better equipped to have their way up front than they were in a loss in Gainesville, Fla. a year ago. But who’s playing quarterback for Utah? It’s unlikely to be Cameron Rising, who tore his ACL in the Rose Bowl in January, and the drop-off to Bryson Barnes is significant. Without Rising, the spread should only be Utah -3 maximum. Play: Florida +6.5.

Nebraska +7 at Minnesota, over/under: 43.5. There’s a lot of excitement over the arrival of new coach Matt Rhule at Nebraska, but he’s got a pretty bare-bones roster for his first season. Minnesota, on the other hand, has built up a fairly impressive level of talent with strengths in the secondary (led by All-American candidate Tyler Nubin) and receiving corps (including big-play threat Chris Autman-Bell and freakish tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford). Lean: Minnesota -7.

Colorado +19.5 at TCU, over/under: 64. Is it possible to totally rebuild a moribund program, the worst among power conference teams last year, in one offseason via the transfer portal? I’m skeptical, even though that’s what some are hailing Colorado coach Deion Sanders has done. TCU might have been just as productive in the portal — adding a pair of likely starting receivers in JP Richardson and Warren Thompson — and its newcomers only need to augment a team that reached the national championship last year. Play: TCU -19.5.

Boise State +15 at Washington, over/under: 58.5 The Huskies didn’t get out of training camp unscathed as they lost a pair of starters to injury including bruising running back Cameron Davis. They should still win this game, but they arguably shouldn’t be laying the same number of points that they were all summer. Washington should be fine long-term but may need some time to adjust at a couple key spots, and Boise State is no walkover that will allow the home team to do so easily. Guess: Boise State +15.

West Virginia +21 at Penn State, over/under: 50.5. There’s no perceived contender in college football I’m hungrier to fade than Penn State. The Nittany Lions have some key players to replace on a defense that was its calling card a year ago. Is 19-year-old Drew Allar really going to produce at a Heisman Trophy-caliber clip in his first action as a starter? West Virginia is outmanned and not the ideal opponent to put a skeptical position on Penn State to rest, but embattled Mountaineers coach Neal Brown has insisted his team is better than low external expectations and will have a point to prove. Lean: West Virginia +21.

North Carolina -2.5 vs. South Carolina in Charlotte, over/under: 65. If this line hits 3 — and it’s touched there a couple times throughout the summer — get ready to spring into action. The current price is fair from strictly a personnel perspective — where North Carolina is ever-so-slightly ahead because of the presence of blue-chip NFL prospect quarterback Drake Maye — but South Carolina has a big edge on the sidelines. Third-year coach Shane Beamer has consistently gotten the most out of his teams, while veteran counterpart Mack Brown has been more hit or miss, especially late in his career. Lean: South Carolina +2.5.

LSU -2 vs. Florida State in Orlando, Fla, over/under: 58. This was my first game bet placed of the year at a slightly better price (LSU -1.5) earlier in the summer, and there’s no reason to add more exposure now. Not when the Tigers have been weakened since then. It’s extremely rare that a defensive lineman would impact a point spread but the suspension of LSU’s Maason Smith for an NCAA violation does cut into one of the SEC team’s biggest advantages. The Tigers do still appear deeper and stronger, factors that should separate them in the best game of the week. Lean: LSU -2.

Clemson -13 at Duke, over/under: 56. Clemson deserves to be mentioned alongside, if not above, the likes of LSU and Florida State as a title contender, but it’s breaking in a lot of new pieces and schemes to start the year. Duke isn’t nearly as talented but returns almost everyone from last year’s breakout 8-4 team. That bodes well early in the season, as does the Blue Devils ability to win at the line of scrimmage with experienced players in the trenches. Guess: Duke +13.

Big Plays

Louisville -8 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 48. The four games Georgia Tech won last season after then-interim, now-permanent coach Brent Key took over has thrown off its power rating. It’s way too high, as this is still a rebuilding project with a large chunk of last year’s defense and quarterback Jeff Sims among the offseason departures. Louisville meanwhile is ready to fly right away with coach Jeff Brohm having far more to work with, both in terms of returners and new arrivals. Play: Louisville -8.

Stanford -3.5 at Hawaii, over/under: 61. This number shot down from as high as Stanford -10 earlier in the summer after Hawaii acquitted itself well in a narrow 35-28 loss to Vanderbilt as 17-point underdog in last week’s season opener. The Warriors deserved some adjustment in their favor but this feels too large especially with traveling back to the big island from Nashville on a short week. Stanford might not be all that better from a talent perspective but new coach Troy Taylor’s wide-open offense has given better opponents fits in more ideal situations over the years while he was at Sacramento State. Play: Stanford -3.5.

Bowling Green +9 at Liberty, over/under: 50. Bowling Green was one of the most fortunate teams of all-time to achieve bowl eligibility last season. Some regression is likely heading their way this year. Liberty will require time to adjust to new coach Jamey Chadwell, but he’s as sharp as anyone in college football. Laying less than 10 with a Chadwell-coached team against Bowling Green counterpart Scot Loeffler is an opportunity to jump on any and every time. Play: Liberty -9.

Toledo +9 at Illinois, over/under: 46.5. Speaking of coaching, Illinois’ Bret Bielema against Toledo’s Jason Candle is a mismatch in favor of the former. Bielema’s strong-man football style, which sunk in to great success with the Illini last year in his second season, is built to dominate games like these. Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn is hyped and excellent for MAC standards, but he shouldn’t have much time to operate in Champaign, Ill. Play: Illinois -9.

Sam Houston +19 at BYU, over/under: 46.5. Stock is severely down on BYU as evidenced by lines moving against it in virtually every market, but at least it’s a bonafide Football Bowl Subdivision program. That’s more up in the air as it pertains to Sam Houston State, as it transitions to the top level off a down 5-4 year in the Football Championship Subdivision last year. And there aren’t many tougher venues to start the shift than LaVell Edwards Stadium, which typically makes for one of the biggest homefield advantages in college football. Play: BYU -19.

Northwestern +6.5 at Rutgers, over/under: 40.5. This line has climbed as many as 2.5 points since news of the Northwestern hazing scandal broke and the subsequent firing of coach Pat Fitzgerald. Is Fitzgerald really worth that much to a point spread? These teams shape up as extremely even on paper, meaning no one should be favored by more than three points regardless of where the game is being played. Rutgers has consistently struggled to find much offense in recent years and can’t be trusted laying a touchdown or more. Play: Northwestern +6.5.

Other Games

Play: Houston +2 vs. UTSA

Play: Tulane -6.5 vs. South Alabama

Play: Virginia Tech -14.5 vs. Old Dominion

Lean: Buffalo +28 at Wisconsin

Lean: Miami (Florida) -16 vs. Miami (Ohio)

Lean: UCLA -14.5 vs. Coastal Carolina

Lean: NC State -14 at Connecticut

Lean: Boston College -8 vs. Northern Illinois

Lean: Purdue -3.5 vs. Fresno State

Lean: Alabama -39 vs. Middle Tennessee State

Lean: Virginia +28 at Tennessee

Lean: Western Kentucky -11 vs. South Florida

Lean: Ohio State -29.5 at Indiana

Guess: Iowa -25 vs. Utah State

Guess: Colorado State +12.5 vs. Washington State

Guess: East Carolina +36.5 at Michigan

Guess: Michigan State -14 vs. Central Michigan

Guess: UL-Monroe +10 vs. Army

Guess: New Mexico +39 at Texas A&M

Guess: Kent State +37.5 at UCF

Guess: Arkansas State +35.5 at Oklahoma

Guess: Massachusetts +36.5 at Auburn

Guess: Texas -35 vs. Rice

Guess: Texas State +28 at Baylor

Guess: SMU -19.5 vs. Louisiana Tech

Guess: Akron +10.5 at Temple

Guess: California -6.5 at North Texas

Guess: San Jose State +17 vs. Oregon State

Guess: Texas Tech -14 at Wyoming

Guess: Ball State +26.5 at Kentucky

Guess: UNR +38 at USC

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or