College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 0

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Aug. 25, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Can momentum carry from the end of one season into the next?

That question sparks a common debate this time of year as everyone tries to prepare for the start of football season. Statistical studies would say no and indicate that a larger sample is always more predictive than an abbreviated stretch with arbitrary endpoints.

It doesn’t make much sense in college football in the first place given the ample roster turnover but every year, there’s a breakout team or two whose rise can seemingly be traced back to the season before. I’m not sure I fall confidently on one side or the other in the argument, but I’m certainly hoping to take after the aforementioned teams and pick up where I left off last year with the College football by the odds column.

I ended on a tear with Georgia’s 65-7 national championship victory over TCU not only cashing a future but also improving the column’s plays in bowl season to an 11-2-1 record. That boosted the full-season record picking every game to 376-326-10 (72-79-2 on plays, 146-114-7 on leans and 158-133-1 on guesses), a successful overall mark but one that still falls far short of profitability on plays.

This season has to be better. The column will move forward with the same format, picking every game but only writing up the most notable contests and confident plays, except for this week.

To celebrate the return of college football, and since there are only seven games on the schedule, let’s break them all down.

Read below for picks on every Week 0 game. They are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Navy +20.5 vs. Notre Dame in Dublin, Ireland, over/under: 49. Some debate has cropped up on whether new Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman is as effective as his numbers make it seem or if he was a product of Wake Forest’s slow-mesh offensive style. That’s absurd; the offense may have helped him, but Hartman is a terrific passer. And he should be too much for a mediocre-at-best Navy secondary. The Midshipmen are also breaking in a new offense themselves, and some growing pains should be expected. The rainy forecast is a minor concern, but I pinned this number at closer to 24. Play: Notre Dame -20.5.

UTEP -1 at Jacksonville State, over/under: 54. The Gamecocks should have a major homefield advantage at Burgess-Snow Field for their first Football Bowl Subdivision game, but they may still be at a personnel deficit as they complete the transition up a level. Jacksonville State has the athletes to match, if not surpass, UTEP but the home team might be outmuscled out front. The Miners’ size and strength are their calling cards, and it could wear Jacksonville State down. Look for a potential second-half, or live, bet if UTEP goes down early but there’s no value in the pregame line. Guess: UTEP -1.

UMass +6.5 at New Mexico State, over/under: 45. Coming off only their second bowl appearance in 62 years, the Aggies might have one of their best teams. It’s jarring to see them as this large of a favorite, and might have been worth taking the points when the spread was over a touchdown. But it’s come down over the last week to a more acceptable range considering some power ratings slot the Minutemen as the worst FBS team and a 2,300-mile trip to Las Cruces, N.M., is no easy task to conquer. Lean: New Mexico State -6.5.

Ohio +2.5 at San Diego State, over/under: 49. Speaking of challenging travel and a heavily-shifted line, this game presents a similar equation. Ohio's Kurtis Rourke should be one of the best Group of Five conference quarterbacks in the nation this season and may shred a green San Diego State secondary. But the line drop from as high as -5 to as low -1.5 after he was deemed healthy enough to play is severe. The Bobcats would have been a play at +5, but the spread is now in more appropriate territory. Guess: Ohio +2.5.

Hawaii +17.5 at Vanderbilt, over/under: 56.5. The Warriors got significantly better late last season, covering in seven of their final eight games, and now there are more reinforcements arriving. Vanderbilt was no slouch at the end of last season either, knocking off Kentucky and Florida in back-to-back weeks in November, but chatter of it climbing to the middle of the SEC East division is a bridge too high. Sell high on the Commodores; their talent level shouldn’t be high enough to blow out the Warriors like they did in last year’s 63-10 opener. Play: Hawaii +17.5.

San Jose State +30.5 at USC, over/under: 66. There’s no guarantee USC’s defense is going to be much improved despite coach Lincoln Riley’s deep plunge into the transfer portal. And expecting Caleb Williams to immediately regain his Heisman Trophy form is a lot to ask for. But this might not be the right place to get cute; other chances will come to fade the Trojans. The Spartans are down, and this spread seems far more likely to close on the other side of 31 than dip into the 20s. Guess: USC -30.5.

Florida International +11 at Louisiana Tech, over/under: 58.5. I made the spread -11, and it’s exactly -11. There will be a lot of games like this throughout the season where picking a side is a true coin-flip. Louisiana Tech completely overhauled its offense this offseason with the arrival of former Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier. There’s potential there but it might take a while to find a rhythm. FIU at least throws some creative looks at opponents defensively behind coach Mike MacIntyre. It’s better to take the points in lower-scoring games, and this projects as a lower-scoring game. Guess: FIU +11.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or