Weekend wagers: Bets on five sports including plays on an NFL award

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Aug. 12, 2023 | 2 a.m.

I’ve placed well more than 1,000 bets in Weekend Wagers since launching the column more than three years ago and hope to place at least 1,000 more here eventually.

This week’s total number of wagers just won’t contribute to that goal much. For one week at least, I’m reverting to the original format of the column — five bets on five sports (well, it’s technically six bets this week but two on the same market and who’s really counting anyway?)

Writing up double that amount has its merits and more closely resembles my actual betting style, but it’s not much fun when it goes sideways last weekend. That column was one of the worst in the history of Weekend Wagers with more than a $1,300 loss.

That happens, and while I don’t want to overreact, it’s also nice to get back to basics to try to reestablish a rhythm. It’s still a slow sports time for a couple more weeks anyway until regular-season college football begins.

The next two columns are crucial because no one wants to go into the official start of football season on a losing streak.

Read on for this week’s bets. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

Golf (3-11-1, -$1,070): Wyndham Clark -110 head-to-head in third round of FedEx St. Jude Championship vs. Sepp Straka (Caesars/William Hill)

$220 to win $200

Golf is probably the biggest earner lifetime in the column, but it's gone sour this year and the variance inherent with trying to hit outrights is showing. I've been swinging for the fences too often in hope for a better payout. At least for the rest of this PGA Tour season — which is only three weeks, to be fair — I want to take a more cautious approach and get back to matchups. This is a strange one to start with considering it pairs the last-place and second-to-last place golfer through two rounds in Memphis. I've bet on both of these guys a lot this year, but luckily strayed from them this week. Clark, however, was in my sights as I expected his driving ability to play well at TPC Southwind. I expected Straka to struggle. Two rounds of golf isn't enough to overthrow my priors, which would slot Clark more in the -125 range head-to-head against Straka. It's not a glamorous matchup to play at the end of the betting board, but there's value on the 2023 US Open champion. 

MLB (12-4, $1,860): Kansas City Royals +135 vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Wynn)

$200 to win $270

One of my favorite things about sports betting is how it can send you from rooting adamantly for one team or player one day to against them the next. That’s what’s happening here. The Cardinals and now back-to-back Saturday starter Steven Matz gave me the only cash of last week’s column in a 6-2 win over the Rockies. But now the veteran and his team are suddenly getting too much credit in the market. They aren’t playing much better than the Royals, which have found a resilient success story in Saturday starting pitcher Cole Ragans. This is a game between two last-place teams that should be priced close to a pick’em. There’s no reason for this high of a price to be available on the Royals. There would be no other purpose in watching this game between going-nowhere clubs, another reason to love sports betting.     

UFC (14-20, -$584): Iasmin Lucindo -184 vs. Polyana Viana at UFC Fight Night (Boyd Sports)

$368 to win $200

It sure seems like the UFC is setting up the 21-year-old women’s strawweight prospect with a showcase fight against a bigger name. Viana has put together some nice moments in the octagon over the last five years, including Performance of the Night victories in two of her last three fights, but she’s 10 years older than the fellow Brazilian Lucindo and potentially at a stylistic disadvantage. Lucindo is stronger and should be able to take down and control Viana at will. The danger would lie in Lucindo falling into a submission trap, but she’s looked seasoned on the mat early in her UFC career. She should roll to a relatively easy decision victory here, and more than cover this price tag.  

NASCAR (14-12, $3,270): Michael McDowell +130 head-to-head vs. Shane Van Gisbergen at Verizon 200 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$200 to win $260

The New Zealander Van Gibergen has drawn the most bets to win this weekend’s road course at the Brickyard in Indianapolis according to multiple reports. At the risk of having to heavily eat my words Sunday evening, all that money seems like a donation to the sports books. Van Gisbergen is severely overpriced as a result of winning his first ever NASCAR start, at the Chicago street race earlier this year. This weekend’s race won’t hold much in common with the Chicago one, and I’d lean towards most experienced NASCAR drivers who have shown an ability on road courses over Van Gisbergen. McDowell certainly fits the bill. While he’s one of the lesser-known drivers on the circuit overall, he’s always been a strong road-course racer. It’s crazy to see him as this big of an underdog to someone only climbing into a NASCAR ride for the second time ever.

NFL (0-1, -$100): Anthony Richardson to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill) and Zay Flowers to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 (Boyd Sports)

$200 to win $1,800 on Richardson, $65 to win $1,950 on Flowers

If everything goes according to plan, both these prices could be long gone by tonight. Both Richardson’s Colts and Flowers’ Ravens make their preseason debuts tonight — against the Bills and Eagles, respectively. If they play half as well as the training camp reports make it sound like they are in practice, then the Rookie of the Year market is going to shift. Richardson is much rawer than fellow first-round quarterbacks Bryce Young (Panthers) and C.J. Stroud (Texans) but it looks like he’s stepping into the best situation. New Colts coach Shane Steichen is a master at putting uniquely talented quarterbacks in the best position to succeed, i.e. Jalen Hurts last year with the Eagles. There’s always going to be a voting bias towards quarterbacks, and Richardson might have the best chance to succeed this season against conventional wisdom.

As for Flowers, there are fewer doubts that his offense is going to be formidable right away. Just look at one of the two MVP bets I’ve placed in this space so far. But he’s supposedly raising the unit even higher so far with blistering speed and sharp route-running. It’s possible there was never quite enough talent around him for him to show his full potential collegiately at Boston College. Here’s a bet that says Lamar Jackson has a better chance at coaxing it out.

Weekend betting column year to date: 75-101-3, $6,124 

Weekend betting column all-time: 553-596-9, $24,633.95 

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); Atlanta Braves at 5-to-1 to win the National League ($300 to win $1,500; Atlanta Braves at 10-to-1 to win the World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Buffalo Bills at 9-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($300 to win $2,700); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); Baltimore Ravens -9 vs. Houston Texans in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Green Bay Packers +2.5 at Chicago Bears in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); LSU -1.5 at -115 vs. Florida State in Week 1 ($345 to win $300); Las Vegas Aces to win WNBA Championship at -115 ($575 to win $500); William Byron to win NASCAR Cup Series championship at +750 ($300 to win $2,250); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Mississippi State under 6.5 wins at -145 ($435 to win $300); US women's national team to win World Cup at +250 ($200 to win $500); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Miami over 7.5 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Myles Garrett to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year ($300 to win $2,400); Florida over 5.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); Kentucky over 7 wins at +110 ($200 to win $220); Mississippi State under 6 wins at Even money ($100 to win $100); Oklahoma State over 6 wins at -140 ($280 to win $200); Texas Tech under 7.5 wins at -120 ($240 to win $200); UCF over 7 wins at Even money ($200 to win $200); West Virginia under 5.5 wins at -180 ($360 to win $200); Cleveland Browns +2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 ($330 to win $300); Air Force to win the Mountain West at 5-to-1 ($200 to win $1,000); Colorado under 3.5 wins at -120 ($120 to win $100); Oregon State under 8.5 wins at -135 ($135 to win $100); USC under 10 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Washington over 9 wins at -120 ($180 to win $150); Ohio State over 10.5 wins at Even money ($150 to win $150); Penn State under 9.5 wins at +130 ($150 to win $215); Iowa under 8.5 wins at -115 ($230 to win $200); Nebraska under 6.5 wins at -110 ($220 to win $200); Purdue over 4.5 wins at -140 ($210 to win $150); Duke under 6 wins at +125 ($200 to win $250); Miami over 7.5 wins at +116 ($200 to win $232); North Carolina under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Syracuse over 6 wins at +105 ($200 to win $210); Boise State under 8.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); New Mexico over 3 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200); Fresno State under 8.5 wins at -150 ($300 to win $200); Hawaii over 3.5 wins at -130 ($260 to win $200)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or