College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 3

AP Photo/Brody Schmidt

Central Michigan wide receiver Jesse Kroll (80) catches a pass at the end of a NCAA college football game between Central Michigan and Oklahoma St in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 10, 2016.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Sept. 17, 2016 | 2 a.m.

What was supposed to happen mostly happened.

That doesn’t usually happen in college football. Week 2 concluded as one of the tamer collection of games, as the favorites predominantly lived up to their billing.

Teams giving points on the spread went 39-7 straight-up and 28-18 against the spread in widely-lined games — any matchup of two Football Bowl Subdivision opponents. Central Michigan’s last-second Hail Mary lateral that shouldn’t have been to beat Oklahoma State 30-27 made it the only underdog of more than two touchdowns to pull off an upset.

By comparison, there were four such kings slayed during Week 1 including South Alabama’s 21-20 upset at Mississippi State as 27.5-point underdogs, which will be hard to top for upset of the year. There were also nearly double the amount of outright upsets, 12, which is more in line with the craziness expected out of college football.

Talking Points got through the week just fine, posting a 9-6 picks record in the college football by the odds column. That brings the season total to 19-9-1.

Check below for a betting preview of this week’s 10 games along with picks on all of them and more. Selections are labeled with three different confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and lines come from the best currently available in Las Vegas.

AP Photo/Nick Lisi

Florida State minus-2 at Louisville, over/under: 65.5; 9 a.m. on ABC

The two quarterbacks in this game, Louisville’s Lamar Jackson and Florida State’s Deondre Francois, have more than crashed the Heisman Trophy discussion. They’ve also brought their teams into early College Football Playoff consideration.

Florida State has dropped to 6-to-1 to win the national championship, tied with Clemson and Ohio State for the second-lowest odds behind only Alabama at 5-to-1, from 15-to-1 at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. Louisville has started its own descent, down to 40-to-1 from 60-to-1.

Offshore at Bovada.lv, Jackson — who put up 610 yards of total offense in last week’s 62-28 win at Syracuse — and Francois — who posted 474 yards in a 45-34 Week 1 against Ole Miss — are two of the top five choices in Heisman odds. They’re both 6-to-1, despite Jackson opening at 100-to-1 and Francois not even being listed three weeks ago.

The line on this game, however, remains mostly unchanged despite its increased profile. Florida State was a 3-point favorite in game of the year lines all summer.

Guess: Louisville plus-2
AP Photo/Chris Pietsch

Oregon plus-3 at Nebraska, over/under: 74; 12:30 p.m. on ABC

Both teams sit in the middle of the futures odds to win their respective conferences with enough talent on their rosters to break through to the top.

Oregon is 6-to-1 in the Pac-12 while Nebraska is 8-to-1 in the Big Ten. The victor of this game’s odds will likely drop immediately as they’ll be taken more seriously as a contender.

The only reason neither the Cornhuskers nor the Ducks have gotten more attention in the first two weeks is their opponents. While most programs of similar statures have played a game against one threatening opponent, these two have stuck to the more traditional route.

Oregon beat up on Virginia and UC-Davis, though covered in neither game, in a pair of contests where it was a combined 72-point favorite. The Ducks focused on breaking in several key new pieces, most notably Montana State transfer quarterback Daktoa Prukop.

Meanwhile, Nebraska basically reassembled last year’s team to cream Fresno State and Wyoming in games where it was a total 52-point favorite. The Cornhuskers covered in both.

Guess: Oregon plus-3
AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis

Alabama minus-11 at Ole Miss, over/under: 55; 12:30 p.m. on CBS

Nick Saban has never failed to cover three times in a row against a single opponent since taking over as coach at Alabama, let alone lose outright to the same team on three consecutive occasions.

Therefore, it’s Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze’s chance to make history Saturday at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. The Rebels are getting more points than they did ahead of both of their upsets over the Crimson Tide the last two years.

Ole Miss was a 6-point underdog before winning 23-17 at home two years ago and a 9-point underdog ahead of last year’s 43-37 win in Tuscaloosa, Ala. Three other teams have beaten Saban twice in a row at Alabama, and he’s won and covered in every third matchup.

Looking back, Ole Miss’ wins don’t seem as unlikely as the point spread may indicate. The Crimson Tide have fielded all-time rushing defenses the last several seasons, with comparatively vulnerable pass defenses.

Ole Miss has mounted no semblance of a running game, and relied almost solely on passing. The Rebels have the same characteristic this season as their whole offense centers on quarterback Chad Kelly, and they threw on 64 percent of their plays in a Week 1 loss to Florida State.

Working in the Rebels’ favor is that they’re 5-2 against the spread as a home underdog under Freeze, including winning three of the last four outright.

Guess: Ole Miss plus-11
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Pittsburgh plus-4 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 59.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN

There’s a perception that Central Michigan didn’t deserve to upset Oklahoma State as a 12-to-1 moneyline underdog last Saturday because its game-winning Hail Mary lateral came on an unearned untimed down after an intentional grounding call.

The Chippewas could chirp back that they had outplayed the Cowboys anyway, as they held a yardage edge even before the wild conclusion in the final seconds. Oklahoma State may have a problematic pass defense, given that it surrendered 361 yards to Central Michigan quarterback Cooper Rush. Luckily for the Cowboys, the Panthers don’t have much of a passing offense.

The Panthers gained 341 of their 432 total yards on the ground in a 42-39 win over Penn State as a 3.5-point favorite. The renewed rivalry played out simultaneous to Oklahoma State vs. Central Michigan last Saturday morning, as the two captivated sports book patrons in an otherwise slow morning of games.

Penn State also nearly pulled out a late victory despite being at a severe yardage disadvantage and trailing 28-7 early. It was a popular underdog play, leaving bettors cheering for Penn State’s 18-point fourth quarter to steal the cover.

Lean: Oklahoma State minus-4
AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Mississippi State plus-14 at LSU, over/under: 44.5; 4 p.m. on ESPN2

If embattled LSU quarterback Brandon Harris decides to transfer as he seemed to hint this week on twitter, a home game against Mississippi State would make for an appropriate bookend to his career.

Harris first burst onto the scene two years ago when he sparked the Tigers against the Bulldogs in a relief role, though they still ended up losing 34-29 as 7-point favorites. The junior has started in most of LSU games since then, but with middling to mediocre results.

Harris is 11-5 straight-up, 7-9 against the spread as LSU’s starting quarterback. Purdue transfer Danny Etling substituted in for him in a lethargic 34-13 victory over Football Championship Subdivision opponent Jacksonville State as 28.5-point favorites last week.

Etling wasn’t much of an improvement, completing six of 14 passes for 100 yards with a touchdown and interception. Harris went 12-for-21 for 131 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in a 16-14 loss to Wisconsin in Week 1.

Mississippi State did a better job rebounding from an embarrassing first-game setback, a 21-20 defeat to South Alabama as a 27.5-point favorite, and finding a quarterback. Sophomore quarterback Nick Fitzgerald posted 373 yards of total offense in a 27-14 Week 2 win over South Carolina with Mississippi State a 7-point favorite.

Guess: Mississippi State plus-14
AP Photo/Al Goldis

Michigan State plus-7 at Notre Dame, over/under: 51.5; 4 p.m. on ESPN2

For a program that’s gotten bet heavily almost every week over the last two years, Michigan State sure doesn’t cover much.

The Spartans failed to beat the 27.5-point spread in a season-opening 28-13 victory over Furman, making it three straight games where they’ve lost to the number. They’re 5-10 against the spread since the start of last season.

That hasn’t stopped bettors from taking Michigan State again, as it’s drawn the early money for a trip to Notre Dame. The Spartans don’t return much from last year’s College Football Playoff team aside from their top three rushers — L.J. Scott, Gerald Holmes and Madre London.

The unit will look to exploit a new Notre Dame defensive front that has struggled at times against the run while the team has opened the season 1-1 straight-up and against the spread.

Notre Dame may build a similar plan of attack, hoping running backs Josh Adams and Tarean Foster can find room against a relatively green Michigan State defense.

Play: Notre Dame minus-7
AP Photo/Jay LaPrete

Ohio State minus-2 at Oklahoma, over/under: 64; 4:30 p.m. on Fox

All the money Ohio State lost bettors at the beginning of last season, it appears hell bent on winning back at the start of this season.

The Buckeyes are the betting public’s best friends through two weeks, as they’ve breezed by two 28-point spreads — beating Tulsa 48-3 and Bowling Green 77-10 —that gamblers weren’t too shy to take. New faces like freshman running back Mike Weber, who leads the team in rushing, and sophomore safety Malik Hooker, who already has three interceptions, have made backers forget about the record-setting group of departed NFL talent.

Everything Oklahoma accomplished last year, including covering in six of its last seven regular season games, also feels like history. Although the Sooners have gained an identical 7.4 yards per play to the Buckeyes led by quarterback Baker Mayfield maintaining his efficiency from last year, they lost both games on the point spread.

Oklahoma slowed down against Louisiana-Monroe last Saturday to win 59-17 as 46-point favorites after losing to Houston 33-23 as 13-point favorites in Week 1. Mainly because of the Houston loss, the spread has violently swung against Oklahoma in its second high-profile game of the year.

The Sooners were a 6.5-point favorite over the Buckeyes before the season began.

Play: Oklahoma plus-2
AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

USC plus-9 at Stanford, over/under: 53; 5 p.m. on ABC

Not many decade-long investment plans could have panned out as well as betting on Stanford every time it’s played USC.

If a gambler had put $100 on Stanford to win outright in each of the last 10 meetings, he or she would be up nearly $10,000 going into this year’s showdown. Of course, much is different this season.

Stanford goes from an average 6.5-point underdog in the previous decade’s worth of games to second the highest favorite it’s been against USC in at least the last 30 years. The Cardinal are not only now the giant in the new age rivalry, but also the rested giant.

They will have enjoyed 15 days between games by kickoff time, while the Trojans have run the gamut of emotions. They humiliated themselves in a 52-6 opening night loss to Alabama as 13.5-point favorites before bouncing back to stomp Utah State 45-7 as 15.5-point favorites.

The USC defense that held Alabama scoreless in the first quarter and Utah State to less than 4 yards per play must show up to have a chance here. A good portion of Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey’s Heisman argument emerged against USC last year, as he totaled 565 yards in a pair of victories.

Lean: USC plus-9
AP Photo/Rick Bowmer

UCLA minus-2.5 at BYU, over/under: 48.5; 7:15 p.m. on ESPN2

BYU has nearly managed to top its two Hail Mary victories to start last season with a pair of games that came down to the last play to begin this year.

Freshman kicker Jake Oldroyd converted on his first career field goal to beat Arizona 18-16 in Week 1. Junior quarterback Taysom Hill failed to find the end zone on a two-point conversion attempt to all but end a 20-19 loss at Utah.

BYU point-spread backers rejoiced both outcomes, as they secured cashes. UCLA has taken bettors on a similar ride, only without the reward.

Leading UNLV 42-21 and in the red zone with 1:30 to go as 27-point favorites, UCLA opted to run out the clock. The Bruins also forced overtime on the road at Texas A&M the week before only to lose 31-24 as 5-point underdogs.

UCLA sophomore quarterback Josh Rosen hasn’t yet meshed with a new set of receivers, having thrown two touchdowns to three interceptions, but will have an opportune chance against a depleted BYU secondary.

Two of BYU’s defensive backs, including Liberty High grad and team captain Kai Nacua, are suspended for the first half because of targeting penalties last week.

Lean: UCLA minus-2.5
Texas minus-7.5 at California, over/under: 81; 7:30 p.m. on ESPN

For Texas, it’s from fifth to first all in two weeks.

The betting market implied four Big 12 Conference teams were more likely than the Longhorns to advance to the College Football Playoff at the beginning of season. Now no one in the conference has lower than Texas’ 20-to-1 odds to win the national championship. The Longhorns must win in a game that kicks off at 9:30 their time against a team that helped doom them to a disastrous 5-7 straight-up and against the spread season last year to keep in that direction.

Last year’s 45-44 win by the Golden Bears contributed to making the over/under the highest of the week — even somewhat surprisingly more than Louisiana Tech at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are one of only three teams that have thrown the ball on a higher percentage of their plays than the Bears this year.

Both of California’s games have flown over the total as Davis Webb, coincidentally a Texas Tech transfer, ranks second in the nation with 963 passing yards and tied for first with nine touchdowns. The only man in front of him is, naturally, Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes II.

The Longhorns employ the opposite strategy, as they’ve run the ball on 65 percent of their plays. Running backs Chris Warren III and D’Ontra Freeman as well as quarterbacks Shane Buechele and Tyrone Swoopes have all scored rushing touchdowns.

Play: California plus-7.5
Courtesy of Northern Illinois

Extra points

Northern Illinois plus-11 vs. San Diego State The Huskies have been downright awful — not coming close to covering in losses at Wyoming and South Florida — but not awful enough to justify a 10-point line move from two weeks ago in this spot. Northern Illinois hasn’t come into a game at Huskie Stadium as an underdog in five years, and has covered every time in the situation dating back 15 years.

Bowling Green plus-7 vs. Middle Tennessee State Here’s a second straight case of not overreacting to a usual MAC power’s rough first two outings. Before the season, the Falcons would have likely been laying a touchdown here instead of taking one.

Boston College plus-6 at Virginia Tech Jump on one of the nation’s most improved teams before the numbers catch up. The Eagles have gained 5.7 yards per play in two games, meaning they’re finally fielding a decent offense to go with their shutdown defense.

Georgia Tech minus-6.5 vs. Vanderbilt The Commodores have gotten some support based on the illusion of a tough defense. But no truly tough defense surrenders 495 yards in a home game against Middle Tennessee State.

Texas A&M at Auburn under 54.5 points Total is a bit inflated given that both coaches, and therefore programs, are known for offense. But both teams have much-improved defenses this year.