Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 2 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 15, 2016 | 2 a.m.

Best-case scenario, Las Vegas might still be a few years away from hosting its own NFL game.

The city will have to settle for having its nearest NFL contest in 22 years on Sunday afternoon in the meantime. The only question is if anyone locally cares about the Rams’ return to Los Angeles after the team’s Week 1 letdown.

There was plenty excitement in sports books going into the regular season, as the Rams were bet heavily in the futures market and in their first game at the 49ers. Los Angeles closed a 2.5-point favorite, but might as well have been a 25-point underdog.

The Rams got shut out for the first time in five years, losing 28-0 due to an impotent offense and/or a ferocious 49ers defense. Similar disappointment resulted the last time games were played in Los Angeles.

On Christmas Eve 1994, both the Rams and Los Angeles Raiders lost outright as 3.5-point favorites in what would be the final pair of regular season games in the area until this weekend. The Rams fell 24-21 to the Redskins at the Anaheim Coliseum while the Raiders lost a playoff spot in a 19-9 defeat to the Chiefs at the Coliseum, the Rams’ temporary home for the next three seasons.

Los Angeles teams traditionally pull strong support in sports books, but that will wither quickly if the Rams stay on their current trajectory.

Check below to find Talking Points’ pick on the Rams’ matchup with the Seahawks this week, as well as the other 15 games on the schedule, separated into three confidence categories. The blog started the season 9-7 overall. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (1-2)

Cincinnati Bengals plus-3.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers Cincinnati has closer to its complete complement of players, and thought of this game all offseason after having Pittsburgh beaten in last year’s wild-card round before a late meltdown. And that was with backup A.J. McCarron at quarterback. Andy Dalton, who threw for 12.2 yards per passing attempt in last week’s win against a tougher Jets defense, is an immeasurable upgrade.

Indianapolis Colts plus-6.5 at Denver Broncos Not sold at all on Denver’s offense, especially with receiver Demaryius Thomas now hobbled. Andrew Luck has found more success than anyone against Denver’s devastating defense, as Indianapolis has averaged 28.5 points against it under Luck with a 4-0 against the spread record.

Arizona Cardinals minus-6.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Hard to believe there’s a spot to buy low on Arizona and sell high on Tampa Bay in Week 2, but this number was 8.5 just last week. The Buccaneers haven’t even played a game this far west since 2013.

Buffalo Bills plus-1 vs. New York Jets Criticism of the Bills’ offensive performance in Week 1, and the subsequent agreement from coordinator Greg Roman, means they are more likely to open it up Thursday night by playing a style more reminiscent of last year. It’s a style that they used to beat the Jets twice outright as underdogs last year.

Los Angeles Rams plus-6 vs. Seattle Seahawks Here’s a spot to apply the principle of not over-reacting to Week 1. The Rams are not as bad as their first performance, and it’s not as if the Seahawks came out of a 12-10 escape against the Dolphins looking golden. Russell Wilson can barely walk — CG Technology is the only book with a line on this game because of his status — and now must take on a Rams’ defense that tormented him en route to two upset victories last year.

Leans (5-2)

New York Giants minus-4 vs. New Orleans Saints The Saints gave up 8.4 yards per passing attempt to Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, two yards above his career average, and now must play without its only above-average cornerback after Delvin Breaux broke his fibula. The Giants’ offense will never look better.

Miami Dolphins plus-6.5 at New England Patriots Dolphins are a bet-on, especially getting this many points against a backup quarterback, until further notice. Their rebuilt defense might be one of the better units in the league this year, and the offense should come around under new coach Adam Gase now that it’s out from underneath the smothering Seahawks’ blanket.

Kansas City Chiefs plus-2.5 at Houston Texans With action pushing this spread upwards from a pick’em, the question must be asked: Has everyone forgotten the Chiefs wiping the Texans away 30-0 at NRG Stadium eight months ago? They were also a 3-point favorite in that game, and the Texans haven’t done near enough to deserve a 5.5-point line swing.

Washington Redskins minus-2.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys The inefficiency of Dallas’ run game in Week 1, which gained only 3.4 yards per carry, is a cause for concern. It’s difficult to trust any rookie quarterback, let alone a fourth-round pick, getting less than a field goal on the road.

Guesses (3-3)

Minnesota Vikings plus-3 vs. Green Bay Packers Minnesota was the more impressive team in Week 1, beating its point-spread expectation by 6.5 points in a 25-16 win at Tennessee while Green Bay pushed on the closing minus-4 in a 27-23 win in Jacksonville. The Vikings may only get better if Sam Bradford takes over for Shaun Hill as expected.

Oakland Raiders minus-4.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons There will come a time in the near future to bet against the overhyped Raiders. It’s just not this week against a poorly coached team traveling west that’s failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 regular season games.

Carolina Panthers minus-12.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers It’s never smart to lay this many points, but the number will likely close higher than this. The situation is also too favorable, with one of the NFL’s best teams playing on 10 days’ rest versus one of the worst teams playing on six days rest across the country.

Detroit Lions minus-5.5 vs. Tennessee Titans It’s a bet against the Titans’ coaching staff for a second straight week, as the team looks so directionless that this number should be a full touchdown. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 8.7 yards per passing attempt last week against the Colts, which were decent defensively last year. The Titans were much worse.

Chicago Bears minus-3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles Not ready to declare Philadelphia a contender after beating what might end up being a historically poor Cleveland team. With the additions of linebacker Danny Trevathan and cornerback Tracy Porter, the Bears’ defense is improved and will provide the Eagles with a better challenge.

Cleveland Browns plus-7 vs. Baltimore Ravens One of those spots where a gambler has to swallow hard, and take the apparent value despite how bad the team looks. The Browns were only a 3-point underdog in this spot in the offseason, and reopened as low as plus-4.5 on Sunday. The decline from Robert Griffin III to Josh McCown at quarterback for the Browns might be nonexistent.

San Diego Chargers minus-3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Seeing the Jaguars draw more than 70 percent of the action is a sighting as rare as Bigfoot. More evidence is needed that their pass defense is improved before backing them against a quarterback as consistent as Philip Rivers.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.