AP Photo/Jay LaPrete
Ohio State running back Curtis Samuel plays against Rutgers during an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 1, 2016, in Columbus, Ohio.
Saturday, Oct. 8, 2016 | 2 a.m.
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Sixteen undefeated teams remain in college football. Only five teams have yet to lose against the spread.
The race to start the season with the best streak versus the Las Vegas number is heating up. Two of the frontrunners have been favorites among the betting public, getting bet in lopsided fashion on a weekly basis and delivering cashes.
Virtual national champion co-favorite Ohio State, which is 4-to-1 in the futures at Westgate Las Vegas Superbook behind only Alabama at 7-to-2, has covered easily in every contest. Miami, which is in the middle futures group at 30-to-1 to win the title, has done the same with only slightly less acclaim.
Sports books should run a promotion where anyone to guess the other three unbeaten betting teams gets a free parlay. They aren’t exactly perennial powers.
The MAC houses two of them, as neither Western Michigan nor Toledo have failed to beat the line yet. First-year Toledo coach Jason Candle has maintained what Matt Campbell, who departed for Iowa State, left behind while Western Michigan’s P.J. Fleck has built a relative power in Kalamazaoo, Mich., in his fourth year.
Colorado’s Mike MacIntyre is another coach enjoying a fourth-year breakout, as the Buffaloes have gotten bet against in almost every game and burned bettors for it.
Colorado gets only five points on the betting line at USC today. Miami is the other team among the group with a challenge, as it lays a field goal hosting Florida State.
The other three are at least 17-point favorites. But that’s the thing about the point spread being the great equalizer — There’s no telling which teams will be left standing in the perfect-covering category next week.
We’ll try to figure it out, though. Check below for week 6 of college football by the odds, with a preview of the 10 biggest games weekly — nine this week with the postponement of LSU at Florida — along with “extra points” picks at the end. The overall record for the year improved to 44-29-2 after an 8-7 showing last week. Selections are labeled with three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and spreads are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas.
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Oklahoma minus-10 vs. Texas in Dallas, over/under: 73.5; 9 a.m. on ABC
Texas coach Charlie Strong has repeatedly said he thought his team’s upset of Oklahoma as a 16-point underdog in last year’s Red River Shootout could have been a pivotal moment for the program.
Instead, it was a turning point for the Sooners. Oklahoma hasn’t lost a Big 12 game since the 24-17 setback, having also gone 7-1 against the spread in conference play.
Texas has lost more than its won since then, with a 3-4 straight-up and against the spread record against Big 12 opposition. The Longhorns’ third loss in their last four conference games came in this year’s opener last week, a 49-31 defeat as 2.5-point underdogs at Oklahoma State.
Calls for Strong’s job rang out ever since, leading the embattled coach to take over defensive coordinator duties going forward. Unlike Strong’s first two years at Texas, defense — not offense — is the problem as it barely ranks inside the nation’s top 100 by Football Outsiders’ S&P metric.
At No. 66 in the same statistic, Oklahoma’s defense hasn’t been much better. Six of the teams’ combined eight games have gone over the total, leading to an over/under two touchdowns higher than ever before in the series.
Lean: Oklahoma minus-10
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Houston minus-17 at Navy; over/under: 51; Noon on CBS Sports Network
Houston is a half-point from perfection, and the betting public has noticed.
The Cougars’ only non-cover in five games this year came in a 42-0 victory over Lamar where they were laying 42.5 points. They’ve otherwise been the safest bet on the board, which has bettors coming back to them as if they’re an ATM that spits out double.
Houston has now emerged as a popular pick in the futures market, as it’s down to 8-to-1 to win the national championship at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook from sitting at 100-to-1 a month ago. Senior quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is a 20-to-1 Heisman Trophy choice, down from 60-to-1.
Even the contingent of bigger money gamblers who seemed determined to beat Houston on a weekly basis last year has withered. A game against the Midshipmen was one of many spots where that strategy backfired.
Before traveling to Houston last year, Navy was bet to as low as a 1-point favorite from opening as high as a 4-point underdog. The Cougars won 52-31 with Ward putting up just shy of 400 total yards.
Houston has about twice the number of contributors back from that game than Navy. It also projects as at least a double-digit underdog in all of its remaining games with the exception of the much-anticipated Nov. 17 matchup with Louisville.
Guess: Houston minus-17
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Indiana plus-29.5 at Ohio State, over/under: 59.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN
So, there is such thing as posting a number too big for Ohio State as it turns out.
The Buckeyes opened as 32.5-point favorites for their second Big Ten contest of the year before the spread quickly trimmed three points. The downward shift might have been a bigger surprise than the bloated original number, because Ohio State has simply decimated anyone and everyone in its path.
The Buckeyes have covered in all four of their games, by an average of 26.5 points. They’ve gained 3.5 more yards per play than they’ve given up, with quarterback J.T. Barrett leading the way offensively by ranking in the nation’s top five in defensive efficiency.
Defensively, they look just as flawless with sophomore safety Malik Hooker one of 20 players in the country with at least three interceptions.
Some bettors wagering big enough money to move the line believe Indiana’s offense can hang enough points to cover, though. The Hoosiers run the ball more often, but they’ve been most successful when throwing.
Junior quarterback Richard Lagow has averaged 10.1 yards per passing attempt, though he has committed six interceptions. Creating takeaways is another area where Ohio State has crushed opponents, as it has a plus-8 turnover margin on the year.
Guess: Indiana plus-29.5
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Virginia Tech plus-2.5 at North Carolina, over/under: 58; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN2
North Carolina has bucked its odds all the way to final-second finishes in its two-game winning streak.
The Tar Heels were still a slight underdog in in-game wagering as senior kicker Nick Weiler lined up for a 54-yard field goal that he ultimately made to beat Florida State 37-35 as 10.5-point underdogs last week. They were even more unlikely to come back in a game they had never led against Pittsburgh the week before, converting two 4th downs on a game-winning drive.
A 2-yard pass from Mitch Trubisky to Bug Howard clinched a 37-36 victory in that one.
Virginia Tech has never trailed in either of its last two games, let alone needed any heroics. Junior-college transfer quarterback Jerod Evans has lived up to his reputation, accounting for 14 touchdowns to only one interception and 9.4 yards per passing attempt.
Trubisky is one of the only signal callers who’s been better in the ACC, with 18 total touchdowns, no interceptions and an average 9.8 yards per passing attempt. But it’s likely Virginia Tech’s secondary will be the best he’s seen, as it ranks second nationally in pass defense by S&P.
Play: Virginia Tech plus-2.5
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Tennessee plus-7 at Texas A&M, over/under: 58.5; 12:30 p.m. on CBS
Even though it’s taking place in College Station, Texas, they could call this the Alabama Bowl.
If any team is going to hold off Alabama from winning its fourth SEC championship in the last five years, it looks like it will be one of these two. As the only fellow undefeated teams left in the SEC, the Volunteers and Aggies are the next most likely national champions by the odds with both at 20-to-1 apiece in the futures.
Conveniently, they both play Alabama in the two weeks following this showdown. The Crimson Tide are currently 10-point favorites at Tennessee next week, and 13-point favorites hosting Texas A&M in two weeks.
Expect those odds to shift based on what happens at Kyle Field. Tennessee has thrilled sports book crowds with its comebacks in three of five games this season.
Despite the Volunteers’ 2-3 against the spread record, the attention appears to have translated into betting action. The spread on this game has dropped to minus-6.5 in most shops with most of the money on Tennessee.
William Hill sports books have drawn 89 percent of the cash on the Volunteers. Texas A&M has been the more trustworthy team, however, as its first non-cover of the season came in last week’s 24-13 win at South Carolina as 19.5-point favorites.
Guess: Tennessee plus-7
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Alabama minus-14 at Arkansas, over/under: 49; 4 p.m. on ESPN
Alabama has lost a game before each of its last three national championships.
Crimson Tide fans should take solace in that fact as their team embarks on what’s always looked like the toughest four-game stretch of this year’s schedule. Current moneyline projections give the Crimson Tide only a 42 percent of making out of the next four games — at Arkansas, at Tennessee, hosting Texas A&M and at LSU — with their undefeated record intact.
The Razorbacks have covered in two straight seasons against the Crimson Tide. Their team this season is built similarly to last year in that they pass the ball much more efficiently despite running on 57 percent of their plays.
Junior quarterback Austin Allen, the younger brother of last year’s starter Brandon Allen, has thrown for 8.9 yards per attempt with 12 touchdowns to interception. Alabama’s pass defense — sitting 21st nationally in giving up 6.1 yards per attempt — continues to be slightly behind its run defense — third nationally at allowing 2.3 yards per rush.
So the game could come down to how sophomore cornerbacks Minkah Fitzpatrick and Marlon Humphrey match up with Allen’s favorite targets, such as possession receiver Drew Morgan and big-play threat Keon Hatcher.
Lean: Alabama minus-14
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Washington minus-10 at Oregon, over/under: 69.5; 4:30 p.m. on Fox
Good luck finding another example of a team laying double digits on the road to an opponent that’s beaten them 12 straight times by an average of 24 points per game.
That’s the situation in Eugene, Ore., this weekend where it’s almost as if the Huskies and Ducks have switched bodies this season. Oregon, which hasn’t posted a losing record against the spread in more than a decade, has yet to cover through five games.
Undefeated Washington is only 3-2 against the spread, but last week’s win was so monumental it could have counted for two. The Huskies throttled Stanford 44-6 as 3.5-point favorites, holding the Cardinal to barely 200 total yards and less than 4 yards per play.
With linebacker Azeem Victor leading what’s been a top-10 defense in the country, it will be strength versus strength against Oregon. Despite the Ducks’ troubles, they’ve still moved the ball swiftly at 6.9 yards per play to rank seventh in the nation.
Junior running back Royce Freeman, who returned from an injury last week, is averaging more than 8 yards per carry. Oregon is expected to switch quarterbacks, turning to freshman Justin Herbert with junior-college transfer Dakota Prukop having been ineffective.
Guess: Oregon plus-10
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Florida State plus-3 at Miami, over/under: 65; 5 p.m. on ABC
Idaho. Hawaii. Rice. Bowling Green.
Those are the teams that surround Florida State in yards per play allowed currently, as the Seminoles’ defense has struggled mightily as part of two losses in the last three weeks. At giving up 7.1 yards per play against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents, Florida State is 123rd in the nation.
That’s why the Seminoles will come into this rivalry series as an underdog for the first time since 2010. It’s quite a swing, as Florida State was a 7-point favorite in this game coming into the season.
Miami has looked like many expected Florida State to through four games. The Hurricanes are surrendering only 3.6 yards per play against the FBS, good for the second in the country, with seniors Rayshawn Jenkins and Corn Elder giving them an elite secondary.
Junior quarterback Brad Kaaya, meanwhile, ranks in the nation’s top 10 with 9.8 yards per passing attempt. Kaaya has thrown for 721 yards in starts the last two years against Florida State, which scored in the final minutes in both contests to ensure a comeback victory.
Florida State junior running back Dalvin Cook picked up 269 total yards in last year’s win, and Miami’s rush defense remains a bigger question than its pass defense.
Guess: Florida State plus-3
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Washington State plus-7.5 at Stanford, over/under: 58.5; 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Stock on Washington State is at a season high while Stanford’s status has plummeted.
No one must have informed bookmakers, which opened Stanford as high as a 12.5-point favorite last Sunday before the rush of big money on Washington State appeared. The Cougars have covered in three straight games since dropping their opener to Eastern Washington as a 28-point favorite, peaking with last week’s 51-33 blowout of Oregon as 2.5-point underdogs.
Running backs Jamal Morrow, James Williams and Gerard Wicks went for 273 yards and six touchdowns on a combined 35 carries. They rushed for nearly 10 times more than the 29 yards Stanford cobbled together in a 44-6 loss at Washington as a 3.5-point underdog.
The loss was the Cardinal’s first non-cover this season, and may have damaged the Heisman chances of Christian McCaffrey, who gained 79 yards on 17 touches. Betting action has evened out, and William Hill has actually printed 58 percent of its tickets on Stanford. But that was only after the initial market correction.
Guess: Washington State plus-7.5
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Extra points
Extra points
Vanderbilt plus-3.5 at Kentucky Having held Florida to 4.3 yards per play, Vanderbilt’s defense is rounding into form. Kentucky has shown no signs of improving in any facet, and are nearly an automatic fade whenever laying points.
Georgia State minus-10 vs. Texas State Number should be higher, as Texas State has one of the worst defenses in the nation. Bobcats will also find it tougher to score against a Panthers’ team that’s limited Appalachian State and Wisconsin in their last two games.
Wake Forest minus-2.5 vs. Syracuse Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson is further along in his rebuild than first-year Syracuse head Dino Babers, making this spread a few points too low.
Texas Tech plus-8 at Kansas State Getting a marked-up price on the Red Raiders with Patrick Mahomes not expected to play due to a shoulder injury. But Nic Shimonek threw for four touchdowns in relief last week, and quarterback has never been an irreplaceable position in the Air Raid offense.
Arizona plus-10 at Utah Utes labor to score, so they shouldn’t lay this large of a number. They’ve failed to cover their last four Pac-12 games as double-digit favorites.
UNLV plus-16 at San Diego State Aztecs have started the season 1-3 against the spread, and continue to be overvalued. They can’t throw the ball, making a blowout an unlikely possibility.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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