Bowl Pick’em Against The Spread: Part 2

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2016 | 2 a.m.

Of all the college football players that could be wreaking havoc on bookmakers during bowl season, it’s Brent Stockstill who’s currently having the biggest effect.

There’s uncertainty over whether Middle Tennessee State’s sophomore quarterback will return from a broken collarbone to play in Saturday night’s Hawaii Bowl. That’s kept the Blue Raiders’ game against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors off of betting boards ever since bowl matchups were announced.

A sports book or two will usually expose itself to some action by posting a number, but casinos are playing it extra cautiously when it comes to Stockstill. There won’t be a point spread until there’s clarity on his status.

Talking Points will skip that game for now, but follow me on Twitter and I’ll post an official pick before kickoff in order to keep up with selecting every bowl game. The blog got off to a decent start, going 4-3 against the spread in the first seven games of bowl season.

Find analysis and picks on the next five days’ worth of games below.

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: BYU minus-10 vs. Wyoming, over/under: 56.5

6 p.m. Wednesday, Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego on ESPN

BYU might have been the play at the opening minus-7.5 line. Tacking on 2.5 extra points is steep. The Cougars are dealing with more significant injuries, including to quarterback Taysom Hill and a pair of starting offensive lineman. Wyoming’s Craig Bohl is an underrated coach, and should make the most of the extra practice time ahead of the first bowl game of his career.

Pick: Wyoming plus-10

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Idaho plus-13 vs. Colorado State, over/under: 65

4 p.m. Thursday, Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho on ESPN

The Rams were like an unprotected bank in a crime movie when it comes to our College Football Betting Awards. They were robbed. A 10-2 against the spread record that includes seven straight covers and an outright upset over San Diego State to end the season deserved some recognition. Idaho has covered seven in a row too, but far less impressively with the only outright upset over Louisiana-Lafayette. There’s never a good time to lay two touchdowns in a bowl game, but this might be one of the closest.

Pick: Colorado State minus-13

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl: Eastern Michigan plus-3.5 vs. Old Dominion, over/under: 65

10 a.m. Friday, Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas on ESPN

Many don’t even realize Old Dominion, which resurrected football in 2009 and moved to Football Bowl Subdivision in 2014, has a team. So here’s an even bigger surprise: The Monarchs are pretty good. They were overmatched and got blown out against North Carolina State, Appalachian State and Western Kentucky this season, but otherwise won and covered in every game. The running back duo of Ray Lawry and Jeremy Cox should tear up a mediocre Eastern Michigan rush defense.

Pick: Old Dominion minus-3.5

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Louisiana Tech minus-6.5 vs. Navy, over/under: 67.5

1:30 p.m. Friday, Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas on ESPN

The trick here is figuring out Navy quarterback Will Worth’s worth. The Midshipmen opened up as high as 5-point favorites when Worth was healthy. His season-ending injury, combined with one to slotback Toneo Gulley, pushed the spread almost two touchdowns in the other direction. The absence of Worth, who accounted for 2,595 yards and 33 touchdowns on the year, didn’t seem overstated when the Midshipmen lost to Army for the first time in 15 years in their first game without him. But the betting market typically overvalues injuries, and it’s hard to think that’s not what’s happening here.

Pick: Navy plus-6.5

Dollar General Bowl: Ohio plus-3.5 vs. Troy, over/under: 49

5 p.m. Friday, Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Ala. on ESPN

Gritting my teeth at the thought of laying 3.5 points in two separate games on the same day. But at the same time, Ohio lost to the worst team in college football this season. It might have been week 1, but it doesn’t get any worse than losing to Texas State. The Bobcats also put up relative no-shows in losses where they were favored against Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan. Troy simply seems more trustworthy.

Pick: Troy minus-3.5

St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami (Ohio) plus-14 vs. Mississippi State, over/under: 58.5

8 a.m. Monday, Tropicana Field in Saint Petersburg, Fla. on ESPN

Miami coach Chuck Martin said his team was poised to play, “the game of their lives.” The Redhawks might not even need to execute on that level to beat the Bulldogs, and that certainly won’t be a requirement in order to cover. Mississippi State has one of the worst defenses of bowl-eligible teams, having given up 6.1 yards per play on the year against FBS opposition. Miami is in the nation’s top 20 in surrendering only 4.8 yards per play. This game means far more to the Redhawks than it does to the Bulldogs.

Pick: Miami (Ohio) plus-14

Quick Lane Bowl: Maryland minus-1.5 vs. Boston College, over/under: 44

11:30 a.m. Monday, Ford Field in Detroit on ESPN

Sticking with the defensive theme, few teams have limited opponents more effectively than the Eagles over the last two seasons. Linebacker Matt Milano and defensive end Harold Landry, who’s tied for the nation’s lead with 15 sacks, will be the two best players on the field. Maryland doesn’t stand out as strongly in any area, and were fortunate to reach a bowl game. Great defense doesn’t get the respect it deserves in the college football betting market.

Pick: Boston College plus-1.5

Camping World Independence Bowl: North Carolina State minus-4.5 vs. Vanderbilt, over/under: 44

2 p.m. Monday, Independence Stadium in Shreveport, La. on ESPN2

This is about as compelling as possible matchup between two teams with only 6-6 records. Vanderbilt reached bowl eligibility with back-to-back convincing upset victories over Tennessee and Missouri to end the season. NC State smacked rival North Carolina to get its sixth victory. The teams seem so evenly matched that the points become the play.

Pick: Vanderbilt plus-4.5

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.