College football by the odds: Las Vegas picks and preview of Week 7

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The Michigan State ‘Spartan’ mascot uses a cheerleaders’ megaphone as a telescope during an NCAA college football game against Rutgers Saturday, Oct. 10, 2015, in Piscataway, N.J. Michigan State won 31-24.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Oct. 16, 2015 | noon

The betting market gave Michigan State the best chance to spoil defending national champion Ohio State’s season over the summer.

That’s no longer the case. Just look as far as the point spread in Michigan State’s in-state rivalry this week for proof.

Michigan comes in as an 8-point favorite over Michigan State in perhaps the most anticipated game of Week 7. The Wolverines are down to a 1-point underdog in their Thanksgiving weekend showdown at home against the Buckeyes on the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook betting board.

By contrast, Ohio State is laying 10 points when it hosts Michigan State the preceding week. In the days before the season kicked off, Ohio State was a 13-point favorite over Michigan State and a 14-point favorite against Michigan.

Of course, Ohio State isn’t looking as peerless as perceived, either. The Buckeyes have their toughest conference game so far this season on Saturday when they host the Penn State Nittany Lions as 19-point favorites.

Ohio State is still the national championship favorite at 5-to-2 odds, but Michigan stars in a group sneaking up on the Buckeyes. The once-beaten Wolverines are 10-to-1, with the Spartans at 20-to-1.

It’s the most significant week in recent memory for the Big Ten, and Talking Points is planning accordingly. Three of the 10 biggest games of the week, which are analyzed and picked in this series, come from the Midwestern conference.

They’ll go a long way in determining whether a bounce-back takes place from the first losing week of the season. After a 4-6 showing last week, the overall record stands at 36-25-1, which is still ahead of the goal of anything above 50 percent, given the difficulty of forcing a pick on every game.

Check below for Week 7 of college football by the odds.

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West Virginia plus-21.5 at Baylor, over/under: 75; 9 a.m. on Fox

Baylor has treated its bettors as royalty the past three weeks, securing a cover in every game by halftime and avoiding any tension in the final 30 minutes.

West Virginia backers must feel more like peasants. The Mountaineers have fallen into early holes in each of their Big 12 games only to subsequently climb out before tripping up again to lose both straight up and against the spread.

They were king for a day in this spot last year, however, in pulling a 41-27 upset as 9-point underdogs that ultimately kept the Bears out of the college football playoff. Despite their 3-2 straight-up, 2-3 against-the-spread record, the Mountaineers might have a better team this season.

They’ll field the best defense Baylor (5-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) has seen, ranking 14th in Football Outsiders’ S&P metric. It will take big performances from a talented secondary boasting the likes of cornerbacks Daryl Worley and Terrell Chestnut to slow a Baylor passing game averaging the nation’s best 7.4 yards per attempt.

Wide receivers Corey Coleman, Jay Lee and KD Cannon have nearly 1,500 combined receiving yards to help quarterback Seth Russell lead the nation in passer rating. Baylor is also first in the nation with 7.4 yards per rushing attempt behind running back Shock Linwood’s 719 yards on 75 carries. But West Virginia linebackers Nick Kwiatkoski and Shaq Petteway have led a particularly stingy run defense.

Pick: West Virginia plus-21.5 Courtesy of back-to-back Mountaineers losses, they’re getting almost a touchdown more than they should here.
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Iowa minus-2.5 at Northwestern, over/under: 405; 9 a.m. on ESPN2

Iowa and Northwestern found themselves in an unfamiliar Las Vegas position last week where bettors actively sought to wager on them.

They didn’t handle the pressure of majority support effectively. Although Northwestern saw big money move against it before kickoff against Michigan, the Wildcats had the bulk of tickets in a blowout 38-0 loss as 10.5-point underdogs.

Iowa went up to a 10.5-point favorite but couldn’t cash in a 29-20 victory over Illinois. Both teams have only posted one winning season against the spread in the last five years but now sit at 4-2 versus the number in 2015.

More importantly to them, control of the Big Ten West Division is at stake in this matchup. The Hawkeyes are among the most banged-up teams in the nation, particularly on defense, but they’ve posted an offensive efficiency that contradicts their reputation as a laborious slug-it-out program.

Junior quarterback C.J. Beathard falls in the nation’s top 50 in passer rating with 1,239 yards and nine touchdowns to two interceptions. Workhorse senior running back Jordan Canzeri is averaging more than 5 yards per carry.

Northwestern is dreadful on offense but still fourth in the nation defensively per S&P even after last week’s letdown at Michigan. Middle linebacker Anthony Walker, who has 10 tackles for loss, hasn’t allowed any team to rack up rushing production on the Wildcats.

Pick: Northwestern plus-2.5 Betting line is a clear overreaction to last week as Northwestern remains just as good, if not better, than Iowa.
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Ole Miss minus-10.5 at Memphis, over/under: 70; 9 a.m. on ABC

Ole Miss’ situation this week is a living example of why so many major college football programs refuse to entertain playing nearby smaller schools.

The Rebels remain hopeful of putting together the best season of their modern era, but they now must travel less than 80 miles north to take on a riled-up little brother out for the same goal. Memphis is on a 12-game winning streak dating to last year — going 6-5-1 against the spread during the span — and now hosts the biggest game at the Liberty Bowl in years.

The Tigers are looking to beat the Rebels for the first time since the team led by current NFL veterans DeAngelo Williams and Stephen Gostkowski pulled it off in 2004. They’re one of 10 teams in the nation producing at a higher clip than Ole Miss against Football Bowl Subdivision opposition on offense.

Memphis is averaging 6.8 yards per play, .1 more than Ole Miss, behind junior quarterback Paxton Lynch, who’s second in the nation in averaging 10.2 yards per pass attempt. The quarterback on the visiting sideline, Chad Kelly, isn’t far back at fifth with 9.9 yards per attempt, and overall Ole Miss rates first in the nation in passing efficiency by S&P’s measurements.

Much of that success is due to torching its first three nonconference opponents — New Mexico State, Fresno State and Tennessee-Martin — in scoring an average of 67 points per game and covering by an average of 19 points. Memphis may have been comparable to those teams in past seasons, but not this year.

Pick: Under 70 points Can’t settle on a side, so choosing to lean toward a sense that the total is slightly inflated.
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Alabama minus-4 at Texas A&M, over/under: 53.5; 12:30 on CBS

Kevin Sumlin is two against-the-spread victories away from evening his record at .500 since he arrived at Texas A&M four seasons ago.

An outright victory in arguably his biggest game since taking over would make for a spectacular way to close the gap. As easy as it might be to poke fun at Sumlin for not translating his team’s annual hype into success at the betting window, Alabama coach Nick Saban has performed even worse in the same span.

Alabama is just 22-25 against the spread since 2012, when bettors really began loading up on it every week during a back-to-back national championship run. The Tide of money is back this week.

Alabama was a 3.5-point road favorite at a handful of books early in the week, but action pushed it up to as high as minus-5. Bettors might have a hard time imaging a scenario where Alabama can’t run the ball with bruising junior Derrick Henry, who has 665 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season.

As much as new defensive coordinator John Chavis has improved the unit, Texas A&M still surrenders a mediocre 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. On the other side, Texas A&M could be poised to exploit Alabama’s perceived weakness in pass defense.

Oft-targeted freshman cornerback Marlon Humphrey would seem to be at a major disadvantage whenever paired against Texas A&M receiver Christian Kirk, who’s already accounted for five touchdowns this year.

He’s not the only freshman receiving standout playing Saturday at Kyle Field, as Alabama’s Calvin Ridley broke out with nine catches for 140 yards in last week’s 27-14 win but noncover as 17-point favorites against Arkansas.

Pick: Alabama minus-4 Numbers seem perfect on this major showdown, so the safest bet is to stay away.
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Oklahoma minus-3.5 at Kansas State, over/under: 54.5; 12:30 on ABC

This is one of those intermittent games where a handicapper must act as an amateur psychologist.

The winner of Saturday’s premier Big 12 matchup by the point spread will come down to which team responds better to immense disappointment. Oklahoma had just started to garner playoff buzz before turning in a dud with a 24-17 loss to arch-rival Texas as a 17-point favorite last week.

Kansas State has taken commanding leads into halftime as more than a touchdown underdog in consecutive weeks but couldn’t finish for an outright win against either TCU or Oklahoma State. The Wildcats did manage to cover in both affairs.

That brought their season record to 3-2 versus the number, which is identical to Oklahoma’s mark. The teams have more or less played to their expectation, as the number on this game in the summer was a nearly identical Oklahoma minus-3.

Contrasting offensive styles will come to a head as Oklahoma is sixth in the nation with 9.6 yards per pass attempt behind Texas Tech transfer quarterback Baker Mayfield, who’s thrown for 1,593 yards and 14 touchdowns. Kansas State employs a run-first strategy with quarterback Joe Hubener, a planned backup thrust into action, more skilled at running than passing, where he’s completing less than 50 percent.

Pick: Oklahoma minus-3.5 Third straight game where I’d prefer not to touch the side. But if forced, the Sooners have far more talent than the Wildcats.
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Michigan State plus-7.5 at Michigan, over/under: 41.5; 12:30 on ESPN

The media has thrust the point spread into a starring role of the game for the Paul Bunyan Trophy.

Nearly every mention of this bitter in-state rivalry is followed by the knowledge that coach Jim Harbaugh has the Wolverines an unlikely favorite against the Spartans in his first year. It’s just as surprising locally when going back to the start of the season.

Michigan State was a 7-point favorite all summer, meaning the number has adjusted more than two touchdowns in Michigan’s favor. It’s hard to argue the shift as unjustified.

Michigan State might be undefeated, but it’s the last team in the nation without a victory against the spread. Preseason concerns about a lack of experience around standout senior quarterback Conor Cook, who’s thrown for 8.2 yards per attempt and 12 touchdowns, have come to fruition in back-to-back narrow escapes against lowly Rutgers and Purdue.

All of Michigan’s defensive numbers are astounding, including giving up less than 3 yards per play. The Wolverines have covered by an average of 22 points per game during their much-ballyhooed three-game streak of shutouts.

Their unfaltering defense starts up front, where Chris Worley and Maurice Hurst make up arguably the most intimidating line in the country.

Michigan State has covered seven straight in the series, but only once was it this big of an underdog.

Pick: Michigan minus-8 Credit to bookmakers for trying, but not sure they can catch their numbers up to this Michigan team fast enough.
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Florida plus-8 at LSU, over/under: 47; 4:00 on ESPN

Freshman quarterback Will Grier’s yearlong suspension for performance enhancing drugs diminished Florida’s chances of upsetting LSU by approximately 8 percent, according to the money line.

The spread has settled with the Gators getting two more points under sophomore replacement Treon Harris from the minus-6 that was on boards before news broke on Monday. Depending on what happens with Texas A&M earlier in the day, this could be a matchup to determine the last undefeated team in the SEC.

On a limited statistical sample, Harris looks as capable as Grier in improving the surprising Gators to 7-0 straight-up, 6-1 against the spread. He’s completed 70 percent of his passes for an average of 10 yards per attempt, both higher than Grier’s marks, in appearing in all but one game this season.

Harris is a far more capable runner, racking up 85 carries for 395 yards through his career. Both teams have strong rush defenses — LSU is giving 3.1 yards per rushing attempt to Florida’s 3.4 — that must rise to the occasion at Tiger Stadium.

Leonard Fournette can either pad his lead in the Heisman race or cut into it. He had his least effective game with 20 carries for 158 yards in last week’s win over South Carolina but has already crossed over 1,000 yards for the season.

Pick: Florida plus-8 Love getting the extra points with Harris because Florida is poised to keep this game close, no matter who’s taking snaps.
AP Photo/Joe Raymond

USC plus-6.5 at Notre Dame, over/under: 61; 4:30 on NBC

Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly admitted uncertainty as to whether his team still had a chance for the college football playoff after losing to Clemson two weeks ago.

Neither sports books nor metrics were as dispirited on the Irish’s prospects. Notre Dame remains at 25-to-1, the ninth lowest odds, to win the national championship at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

It’s at a season high in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings at No. 4. The forecast for USC turned more ominous after it lost to Washington 17-12 as a 17-point favorite last week for a second defeat of the season.

Although the Trojans remain at No. 6 in F/+, they are 100-to-1 to win the national championship and needing a miracle. The formula to beat them is no longer a secret.

It’s to keep a top-five offense gaining 7.2 yards per play off of the field. Teams have succeeded in the strategy, as the Trojans are 125th in the nation in time of possession.

There’s little reason to think Notre Dame would try anything else, considering it’s gaining 5.9 yards per rush attempt with converted defensive back C.J. Prosise totaling 110 carries for 779 yards and nine touchdowns on the year.

The Irish haven’t yet failed to cover in four games under quarterback DeShone Kizer, who took over for the injured Malik Zaire. USC cashed easily, beating Fresno State 49-20 in the 2013 Las Vegas Bowl as 6-point favorites, in its only game under interim coach Clay Helton, who takes over for the dismissed Steve Sarkisian.

Pick: USC plus-6.5 Trojans backs Tre Madden and Ronald Jones could have their way with the Irish’s beat-up defensive front.
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Penn State plus-19 at Ohio State, over/under: 47; 5:00 on ABC

Coach Urban Meyer felt he moved closer to solving Ohio State’s season-long quarterback controversy in last week’s 49-28 victory over Maryland by starting Cardale Jones but using J.T. Barrett in the red zone.

Bettors weren’t appeased, not with the Buckeyes failing to cover the 32-point spread by nearly two touchdowns. It was the fourth straight week that Ohio State failed to cover by double digits and its fifth consecutive against-the-spread loss.

Penn State has shown a more positive trajectory, covering in three of its last four after two failures to open the season. Protecting junior quarterback Christian Hackenburg remains a major problem, as the Penn State offensive line ranks 113th in the nation in adjusted sack rate.

Ohio State has the eighth-best adjusted sack rate on defense with junior Joey Bosa, senior Joshua Perry and sophomore Tyquan Lewis producing consistent pressure.

The Buckeyes are just the latest in a long line of national championship teams to struggle against the spread in their title-defense season.

Their defense has played better than last year in giving up only 3.9 yards per play, but the offense has regressed. The Buckeyes are averaging 6.6 yards per play, .2 less than all of last year, despite a much easier schedule so far, and rank 72nd in passing by S&P.

Pick: Penn State plus-19 Ohio State may hold a situational edge, but there’s no quantitative reason it should give this many points.
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Arizona State plus-6.5 at Utah, over/under: 56; 7:00 on ESPN

The recurring fickle nature of the betting public is best exemplified in regards to Utah this week.

The Utes were one of the most popular picks on the board last week as 7.5-point favorites hosting California. Utah failed to cover by a half-point in a 30-24 victory, and now its support has dissipated.

The Utes opened as a 7-point favorite over the Sundevils, and immediately the line shifted downward. Much of that could have to do with Arizona State seemingly reaching the potential that had it as only a 2-point underdog at Utah in the offseason.

The Sundevils ruined another previously undefeated season their last time on the road, stomping UCLA 38-23 as 13-point underdogs. Senior quarterback Mike Bercovici seems to have overcome early struggles to feel comfortable in the offense, going 47-for-75 with 573 yards and seven touchdowns in two straight wins and covers. But he’s also thrown an interception in all but one game, and an ability to notch takeaways is Utah’s strength.

Marcus Williams and Dominique Hatfield each have three interceptions as the Utes are tied for first in the nation with a plus-2 turnover margin per game. Notching five interceptions off of heralded Jared Goff last week kept Utah afloat in a game where it was out-yarded by California.

Pick: Arizona State plus-6.5 Turnovers can’t save Utah forever.