College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 12

Alex Brandon / Associated Press

LSU mascot Mike VI, a part Bengal and Siberian tiger, sits in his cage in October 2007 on the field for a game between LSU and Florida in Baton Rouge, La.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Friday, Nov. 20, 2015 | noon

Updated Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015 | 12:59 a.m.

Regression is the beast all sports bettors must battle.

It’s always going to catch up, as hitting anything approaching 60 percent of bets is wholly unsustainable over any significant sample. The hope is to outrun it as long as possible and take only minimal damage when the inevitable happens.

Last week, Talking Points failed to curtail the crash. Regression mauled the blog, sinking its sharp teeth deeply enough to inflict the worst week in the history of the college football by the odds series.

The record picking the 10 biggest games of the week was a ghastly 1-9, dropping the season total to 59-51-2. There were some bad beats, but it was mostly bad calls.

Bettors tend to obsess over the instances where they wound up unlucky, but forget about similar examples where they came out on the right side of variance. Talking Points had surely received a healthy dose of good fortune to get 16 games above .500 through 10 weeks. It’s important to keep that perspective and never let the high points warp reality.

The goal of the blog was always to finish the regular season above 50 percent given the inherent disadvantage of forcing a pick on every game, and that’s still well within play. Week 12 is where the blog can fight to its feet and try to create some new separation.

Check below for week 12 of college football by the odds.

(Matt Gentry / The Roanoke Times via AP

North Carolina minus-6 at Virginia Tech, over/under: 61.5; 9 a.m. on ESPN

Countless tributes documenting Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer’s 29-year tenure in Blacksburg, Va., will accompany the final home game of his career Saturday morning.

Sports bettors could compile one of their own. Beamer has been a long-time moneymaker at 174-148-9 against the spread, an extremely impressive and profitable figure given the large sample size that’s come despite four straight seasons with losing records versus the number.

Emotions will run high, but Beamer has a tough assignment in his home finale in a rare underdog role at Lane Stadium. Virginia Tech came into the season as the ACC Coastal Division favorite, but now North Carolina has all but sewn up the appearance in the conference title game in Charlotte on Dec. 5.

The Tar Heels are in the running for a point-spread championship too at 7-3 against the spread on the year. They’ve covered five of their last six behind an offense that rates second in the nation by gaining 7.5 yards per play.

North Carolina beat the number in their only two road games, but both were close as it defeated Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh each by a touchdown. Virginia Tech is riding a two-game winning streak both straight-up and against the spread, but needs a win in one of its last two games to become bowl eligible for a 23rd consecutive year.

Pick: Under 61.5 points Done trying to beat North Carolina, but Virginia Tech’s defense will provide a real challenge.
David A. Cleveland / Special to the Sun

Michigan minus-3.5 at Penn State, over/under: 41.5; 9 a.m. on ABC

Michigan rates near the top of the list in teams that have produced the most noise in sports books this season.

Three of the Wolverines’ last four games have come down to the final play in regulation or overtime, which is inauspicious for a team that hasn’t given less than a touchdown all season. Michigan was a 5-point underdog in a season-opening 24-17 loss at Utah, but has come in as the favorite in every game since.

Penn State emulated the late-game personality of Michigan in its last game, losing 23-21 as closing 2-point favorites at Northwestern, on a field goal with nine seconds left. The Nittany Lions dropped to 4-6 against the spread overall, and 3-3 in Big Ten play.

But they’re coming off a bye week and catch Michigan in a precarious spot with next week’s game against Ohio State looming. The Wolverines are currently a 6.5-point underdog at home against the Buckeyes.

Their identity has curiously changed in the last three weeks. A defense that was once on a historic pace has turned mediocre, allowing 5.4 yards per play against a combined slate of Minnesota, Rutgers and Indiana.

The running game is also regressing, down to 4 yards per carry in the last three contests, while their passing attack has improved. Senior quarterback Jake Rudock threw for a career-high in back-to-back weeks that included five touchdown passes to breakout junior Jehu Chesson.

Penn State has the No. 4 pass defense in the nation, according to Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings, but captain and three-year starting defensive back Jordan Lucas came down with a season-ending injury against Northwestern.

Pick: Michigan minus-3.5 Still sense value to extract on Michigan.
LSU plus-6.5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 56; 12:30 p.m. on CBS

If the reports that LSU coach Les Miles must win his last two games to keep his job, then the odds say the prospects are grim.

The Tigers figure to come in as more than a touchdown favorite at home against Texas A&M next week, but the moneyline on this week’s trip to Oxford, Miss., implies only a 31 percent chance for a victory. The point spread has soared in the direction of Ole Miss with LSU’s two-game losing streak.

The Tigers were a 1-point favorite at Ole Miss before losing 30-16 as 7.5-point underdogs at Alabama two weeks ago. LSU then adjusted to a 1-point underdog until Arkansas crushed it 31-14 as a 7-point road underdog last Saturday.

The Tigers opened as a 4.5-point underdog against the Rebels Sunday, but got bet up even further immediately. Ole Miss is coming off a bye week following its own home loss to Arkansas, 53-52 as 7.5-point favorites, where the Razorbacks racked up more than 600 yards.

The Rebels are vulnerable against the pass, ranking 43rd in the nation per S&P, but stiffer versus the run at No. 13. Coming off his first two games without 100 rushing yards this season, LSU running back Leonard Fournette will be hard-pressed to reach the mark for another week.

LSU, conversely, is better against the pass and figures to match shutdown junior cornerback Tre’Davious White with Ole Miss junior receiver Laquon Treadwell, who has more than 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns on the season.

Pick: Over 56 points Point spread is in the right place, but total might be a few points low.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

USC plus-4,5 at Oregon, over/under: 71.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN

Like someone who realizes they broke off a romantic relationship too early, the betting market is desperately trying to make amends with Oregon.

A once torrid affair between gamblers and the Ducks dissipated when Oregon started the season 3-3 straight-up, 2-4 against the spread. But now everyone is reconsidering with Oregon having won four in a row, including last week’s 38-36 victory over Stanford as 8.5-point underdogs.

The Ducks improved to 5-1 straight-up and against the spread with Vernon Adams at quarterback. The perception now is that Adams was more valuable than ever appreciated.

It’s a big part of the reason this line sprung from Oregon minus-3 earlier in the week. Bettors have maintained their distance from the Trojans ever since the outright loss to Washington as 17-point favorites that began to unravel the Steve Sarkisian saga.

Although USC has gone 5-1 straight-up to regain the Pac-12 South division lead since then, its only 2-4 against the spread. Senior Cody Kessler, who’s thrown for 23 touchdowns to six interceptions, trails only Adams in passer rating among Pac-12 quarterbacks.

Sophomore receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster stands alone as the conference’s top receiver with 1,160 yards and 10 touchdowns. An iffy Oregon pass defense giving up 7.1 yards per attempt could be at risk.

USC’s secondary hasn’t been any better, though, and Oregon has a deeper core of receivers to rotate in.

Pick: USC plus-4,5 Not quite convinced the right team is even favored here.
The Associated Press

UCLA plus-1.5 at Utah, over/under: 56.5; 12:30 p.m. on Fox

Senior running back Devontae Booker has emerged as the face of Utah football over the last couple seasons, so it’s tough to imagine how the Utes will look without him.

For bettors, it’s tough to imagine the Utes winning without him. Utah was a 3.5-point favorite over UCLA last week before losing Booker for the year to a meniscus tear and seeing the spread move in the other direction.

Booker led the nation with 268 carries, so it wasn’t a shocker to see the workload wear him down. He also wasn’t as efficient as last season with his average dipping to 4.7 yards per carry from 5.2 in 2014.

Just as Utah was falling to Arizona 37-30 as 5.5-point underdogs without Booker last week, UCLA stumbled 31-27 to Washington State as 11.5-point favorites. UCLA can still reach the Pac-12 Championship Game with wins in their next two games, while Utah would have to win out and also require a USC loss.

Neither the Utes nor the Bruins have been profitable bets since the start of Pac-12 play, where both have gone 3-4 against the spread. UCLA has struggled to overcome a rash of defensive injuries, though it’s still in the nation’s top 25 in giving up 4.9 yards per play.

Pick: Utah minus-1.5 Never overvalue an injury to a single non-quarterback player.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Michigan State plus-14 at Ohio State, over/under: 52.5; 12:30 p.m. on ABC

As one of the most anticipated games of the season, the odds on this contest have been scrutinized dating back to the summer when point spreads first began to surface.

The Golden Nugget opened Ohio State as a 14-point favorite in June, but adjusted to 12 when money came in on Michigan State. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook saw more Ohio State action and settled on minus-14 before the year kicked off.

Give the oddsmakers credit because the line is identical nearly six months later. And bettors’ opinions continue to be just as split.

No significant movement has occurred anywhere since the game posted on betting boards Sunday. Both teams’ seasons have gone similarly.

Ohio State compiled a five-game against the spread losing streak before covering in three of its last four. Michigan State dropped six straight spread decisions before going 3-1 versus the number over the last month.

Spartans quarterback Connor Cook injured his shoulder in a 24-7 victory over Maryland as 14-point favorites last week, though. He insists he’s fine for the biggest game of the season, but the injury is enough to give Michigan State backers trepidation.

The Buckeyes rank 11th in the nation in sack percentage with a defensive front including Joey Bosa, Tyquan Lewis and Sam Hubard generating a consistent pass rush. This is their tightest game of the season so far by the point spread, and Michigan State handed Ohio State its only Big Ten loss of coach Urban Meyer’s tenure with a 34-24 victory in the 2013 conference championship game.

Pick: Michigan State plus-14 No feel on this game, so going with the rule of taking the points when in doubt.
Gerald Herbert / Associated Press

Mississippi State plus-4 at Arkansas, over/under: 57.5; 4 p.m. on ESPN

Few teams in the nation can claim to be as hot as Arkansas.

The Razorbacks are 5-1 straight-up and against the spread since the start of October, with the only loss coming to Alabama and the only non-cover against Football Championship Subdivision Tennessee-Martin. They’ve pulled off back-to-back upsets as underdogs of more than a touchdown against LSU and Ole Miss.

Mississippi State seemed to be trending the same direction until a 31-6 shellacking as 7-point underdogs at home to Alabama last week. The Bulldogs had covered three in a row.

Bowl position is at stake as both teams could still finish second in the SEC West with a win Saturday. Arkansas’ Brandon Allen and Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott are two of the top three passers in the SEC by most metrics, including passer rating.

Prescott’s Bulldogs have limited opponents’ passing attacks more efficiently. Mississippi State is giving up only 6 yards per pass attempt compared with Arkansas’ 8.5.

Mississippi State is weaker at stopping the run, however, and may find trouble trying to take down Arkansas running back Alex Collins. The senior is behind only Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry among SEC running backs with 1,209 yards, 14 touchdowns and 6.1 yards per carry.

Pick: Over 57.5 points Both teams’ offenses are far better than perceived.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Baylor plus-1 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 77.5; 4:30 p.m. on Fox

The matchup projecting as the closest of the day doubles as the one expected to produce the most points.

Would fans expect anything less of one of the premier Big 12 games of the season? Baylor at Oklahoma State holds the atypical distinction of having the shortest spread — pick’em at most shops — and the highest total — as much as 78 points — on the betting board.

Bettors are picking the over and the home team. Oklahoma State has gotten steadily better on offense all season, largely because of a deep receiving corps that includes James Washington, David Gidden and Marcell Ateman.

Since coach Mike Gundy began regularly using both starting quarterback Mason Rudolph and backup J.W. Walsh, all four of the Cowboys’ games have gone over the total. Twelve of the two teams’ combined 19 games this season have eclipsed the over/under.

Although Baylor has dropped two straight against the spread since losing quarterback Seth Russell, the passing game hasn’t dropped as far as perceived. Replacement Jarrett Stidham has averaged 11.4 yards per attempt, nearly a yard better than Russell.

The freshman injured his back in last week’s 44-34 loss to Oklahoma, but is expected to play at Oklahoma State. Baylor may focus its attack more around senior running back Shock Linwood, who’s averaging better than 7 yards per carry, with Oklahoma State’s run defense more susceptible than its pass defense.

Pick: Baylor plus-1 Check Stidham’s status, but as long as he plays, Baylor getting points — point? — is a gift.
Tony Gutierrez / Associated Press

TCU plus-10.5 at Oklahoma, over/under: 77.5; 5 p.m. on ABC

A torch passing could take place at Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., on Saturday night.

TCU emerged as the best team in the nation to bet on last year, finishing 11-2 against the spread after starting with seven straight covers including an upset 37-33 win over Oklahoma. The Sooners could be poised to move into the top position this season.

At the least, they’ll go down as the most profitable Big 12 team in 2015 if they can avenge last season’s loss to the Horned Frogs and improve to 9-2 against the spread. The problem is no one has been able to bet on it all week.

With TCU senior quarterback Trevone Boykin’s questionable to play, the game stayed off betting boards until Friday night. Top receiver Josh Doctson’s status was also unclear early in the week until coach Gary Patterson announced the junior was out for the rest of the regular season with a wrist injury.

TCU toiled to a 23-17 victory at Kansas as 42-point favorites without Doctson and Boykin last week. Oklahoma had a much different experience in staying perfect on the road this season both straight-up and against the spread by beating Baylor 44-34 as a 1.5-point underdog.

The Sooners are up to eighth in the nation by gaining 6.8 yards per play with quarterback Baker Mayfield leading all active quarterbacks in passer rating.

Pick: Oklahoma minus-10.5 Willing to lay anything less than 14 points with the Sooners.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

California plus-11 at Stanford, over/under: 64.5; 7:30 p.m. on ESPN

For the third time this season, Stanford sat as a 10.5-point favorite in some sports books early in the week.

The Cardinal lost the first two instances outright. Stanford snapped an eight-game straight-up winning streak with last week’s 38-36 loss to Oregon as closing 8.5-point favorites.

Combined with a week 1 loss to Northwestern, 16-6 as 10-point favorites, Stanford’s college football playoff chances are almost completely extinguished. The Cardinal shouldn’t have much trouble re-igniting motivation, however, with their biggest rival coming to Palo Alto, Calif.

California broke its three-game losing streak by smashing Oregon State 54-24 as 21-point underdogs to become bowl eligible. Now the Golden Bears look to snap a five-game losing streak to Stanford that’s included only one cover.

Stanford’s pass defense has slipped to No. 66 in the nation by S&P, while California’s offense ranks No. 14 in passing. California junior quarterback Jared Goff went off for 453 yards and six touchdowns against Oregon State.

But he’s struggled in losses against Stanford the last two years, barely completing 50 percent of his passes while having an equal two touchdowns and two interceptions.

Pick: California plus-11 Have to expect Golden Bears’ best performance in game they want so desperately.