NBA Finals in Las Vegas: Betting preview and picks of Game 5

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, June 14, 2015 | 2 a.m.

LeBron James dismissed a reporter’s suggestion that leading the Cleveland Cavaliers to victories in two of the next three games to win the NBA title would be the biggest challenge of his career.

James declared the 3-2 deficit his 2012 Miami Heat team fell into against the Boston Celtics in the eastern conference finals more daunting than the Cavaliers’ current 2-2 stalemate with the Golden State Warriors. He’s sorely mistaken based on the betting odds.

Sports books listed the Heat and Celtics series as a pick’em through five games before James put on a sensational performance to advance his team.

The Cavaliers, on the other hand, are a plus-320 (risking $1 to win $3.20) underdog to the Warriors, which come back at minus-380 (risking $3.80 to win $1), heading into tonight’s Game 5. Tipoff is scheduled for 5 p.m. at the Oracle Arena in Oakland, Calif.

The numbers, after adjusting for the house’s hold percentage, give Golden State a 77 percent chance to win the series. The Game 5 point spread — Golden State minus-8.5 — is the largest in an NBA Finals game in seven years since the Los Angeles Lakers laid the Boston Celtics 9.5 points in Game 3 of a series they ultimately lost.

With the Warriors projecting as a favorite again in Tuesday’s Game 6, the odds only give the Cavaliers around a 50/50 chance of reaching a decisive Game 7. So, whether he wants to admit it or not, James is in a situation as slippery as a Stephen Curry crossover.

In his defense, he wasn’t the only player exercising muddled thinking after the Warriors’ 103-82 victory in Game 4. Several of the Warriors credited the series-evening win to the Andre Iguodala-for-Andrew Bogut starting lineup switch and an increase in the game’s pace.

But Cleveland manhandled Golden State’s new starting lineup on the glass and outscored the unit while it was on the floor. The game was also the second slowest of the series with just 91 possessions for each team.

It was no fluke that, much to sports books’ delight, the Warriors’ victory was the third straight contest to fall under the total, which was 194.5 in Game 4 but raises a point for Game 5.

Straight bets didn’t end up as well for the house. The bulk of the action came on the Warriors, which rose from a 2- to 4-point favorite, to make Game 4 the first of the series where the public wound up on the winning side.

Game 5 has drawn the most two-way action of the series so far with the point spread entrenched at 8.5 through two days. The Cavaliers haven’t gone off as a bigger underdog with James in the lineup since a 2008 playoff game against the Celtics.

The most significant comeback of James’ career is in order if Cleveland is to win the series.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.