Vegas Play of the Day: Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Jan. 18, 2015 | 2:24 a.m.

The Play of the Day, which uses odds from the South Point and a $10,000 starting bankroll, is here to wish you a Happy Conference Championship Sunday.

I hope I’ve got just the gift for this occasion — a big winner.

Green Bay Packers plus-7.5 at Seattle Seahawks: $550 to win $500

The amount of times Aaron Rodgers has taken more than a touchdown on the point spread in his career is zero. This is an unprecedented line. An unprecedentedly poor line.

The Seahawks are not only the defending Super Bowl champions; they’re also the best team in the NFL. They’re rightful favorites to repeat. But there’s not a single team in the league, perhaps not even one assembled solely of Pro Bowlers, that should lay a touchdown to the Packers.

Seattle has the best defense in the league, giving up 4.7 yards per play, but Green Bay boasts the best offense at gaining 6.1 yards per play. When these two teams kicked off the season against each other, the Packers closed as a 4.5-point underdog with money coming in on them.

Their seasons played out mostly according to plan — they were the two favorites in the NFC — so where are the three extra points coming from? And I know your answer —Rodgers’ injured calf. I’m just not necessarily worried about it.

Rodgers’ limp didn’t stop him from covering against Detroit, 30-20 as 8.5-point favorites, in the regular-season finale. The Packers were also one point from covering last week, beating the Cowboys 26-21 as 5.5-point favorites,

Despite a 31-17 win over the Panthers as 13-point favorites, the Seahawks looked more faulty. They gave up 348 yards to a sometimes-listless offense. Conveniently timed turnovers were the only reason for the cover for Seattle’s second game in a row.

Otherwise, this spread might be closer to where it belongs.

Standings: Bern (63-52-1, $12,326), Keefer (61-61-2, $10,197), Brewer (56-61-3, $6,285)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.