Top six NBA teams by the odds fill Christmas Day betting schedule

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Dec. 25, 2015 | 2 a.m.

The NBA annually sets out to showcase its best teams with a Christmas Day schedule of five games.

The league may have outdone itself this holiday season. The top six teams on Las Vegas betting boards to win the NBA title all suit up today.

It may sound like an easy task for the schedule makers to load up the elite on one day, but the last two seasons show it’s trickier than perceived. Two teams that went on to reach the conference finals weren’t featured on the Christmas slate in both 2013 and 2014.

A massive upset would have to occur for that to happen this year. There’s better than a 90 percent probability, according to the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook future odds, that one of the 10 teams playing today will hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy next June.

And the true odds are probably even higher than that considering the sports book must adjust the numbers to limit liability on long shots.

The two teams in the gift of a game that looks most appealing to NBA fans have a combined 55 percent chance to become champions. The Golden State Warriors face the Cleveland Cavaliers for the first time since last year’s NBA Finals at 2 p.m. on ABC.

Golden State, 6-to-5 to win the title, and Cleveland, 5-to-2, are favored to play again in the NBA championship this year.

The Warriors won and covered the final three games last year to take the title, and now lay 7 points against the Cavaliers on Christmas. It’s the fewest points they’ve given this season in a home game, where the Warriors are 13-0 straight-up and 8-5 against the spread.

All NBA conversations are starting with the Warriors after they went on a 24-game win streak to start the season with Stephen Curry on pace to post the highest Player Efficiency Rating in NBA history. But in sports books, the Spurs may deserve to be the topic of conversation.

San Antonio, not Golden State, is the team tied with Orlando for the best against the spread record in the league. The Spurs are 21-9 versus the Las Vegas number, and covering by a league-high 5 points per game.

But they’re only a 7-to-2 third choice to win the title, and lay 6.5 points at Houston at 5 p.m. tonight. The Rockets had perhaps the most disappointing start in the league, but are 8-4 straight-up and against the spread in December.

Still, their odds to win the title have risen from 18-to-1 before the start of the season to 80-to-1 currently. Exemplifying the difficulty of beating the odds when preseason expectations are high, the Rockets are one of six teams playing on Christmas that have failed to cover in 55 percent or more of their games.

The Chicago Bulls, 9-17, and Los Angeles Lakers, 10-19, are the two worst covering teams in the league. Chicago gets 9 points on the betting line at Oklahoma City in the 11:30 a.m. tipoff, while the Lakers are plus-12 in the nightcap against their Staples Center co-tenant Clippers.

The Thunder fall in behind the Warriors, Cavaliers and Spurs at 12-to-1 to win the title. The Clippers and Bulls round out the contenders’ group at 18- and 20-to-1, respectively.

Betting volume will boost on Christmas with nothing else on the board, but it’s not until late in the playoffs that sports books’ handle on the NBA reaches anywhere near NFL-sized proportions.

Overwhelming chances are, theses teams will be around for it.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.