College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of conference championships

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Dec. 4, 2015 | noon

The final weekend of college football’s regular season brings the lightest slate, but also the tensest.

Aspirations that teams have strived towards for nearly a year come down to a single game on Saturday. Talking Points can relate to the likes of Michigan State and Iowa, which play in a winner-take-all showdown for the Big Ten championship and college football playoff berth.

The blog’s goal comes down to the final day as well. From the start of the season, the objective was to finish with a record above 50 percent, which is below profitability but adequate given the difficulty of forcing a pick on all of the biggest games of the week.

It looked virtually guaranteed three weeks ago when the picks sat 16 games above .500, but they’ve crumbled like a team that can’t deal with excess pressure ever since. Two of the three worst weeks in the history of the series leaves the season record at 66-64-2 against the spread.

Another losing outing would result in the embarrassment of a negative record on the year. It’s time to manifest all of the year’s work into one last ultimate effort to go into bowl season a winner.

Check below for week 14 of college football by the odds, which analyzes and picks five games instead of 10 this week because of the diminished schedule.

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  ASSOCIATED PRESS

  AAC Championship Game: Temple plus-6 at Houston, over/under: 54.5; 9 a.m. on ABC

  The American Athletic rates right with the Big Ten for staging Saturday’s most improbable conference championship game.

  Neither Temple nor Houston were the favorites to get into this game dating back to the beginning of the season, as they were both 6-to-1 long shots behind Cincinnati and Memphis in their respective divisions. They’ve both gotten into position to reach a coveted New Year’s Six bowl with a conference championship by surprising everyone.

  The betting market caught on to Houston sooner, as it was favored in nine straight games after upsetting Louisville 34-31 as 13.5-point underdogs in week 2. The Cougars have gone only 5-5 as a favorite, but were perfect in two spots as an underdog including beating Navy 52-31 to earn home field in this game last week.

  Temple is also yet to fail to cover as an underdog, going 5-0 against the spread and 4-1 straight-up. The Owls have the nation’s 11th ranked defense, according to Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings, with senior Tyler Matakevich one of the best linebackers in college football.

  But they were unable to slow explosive Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. last season as the dual-threat junior went for more than 300 yards in a 31-10 victory as 9.5-point favorites.

  Pick: Temple plus-6 These teams are almost dead-even, and home field shouldn’t account for six points.

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  Vasha Hunt / AL.com via AP

  SEC Championship Game: Florida plus-18 vs. Alabama in Atlanta, over/under: 39.5; 1 p.m. on CBS

  Several of the players taking the field at the Georgia Dome weren’t yet alive the last time an SEC Championship Game was perceived as this lopsided.

  Alabama is the biggest favorite in the game since 1995, and the second largest ever. It wasn’t shaping up to be this way.

  The Crimson Tide projected as only a 13-point favorite when this matchup became all but assured a month ago when Florida defeated Georgia 27-3 giving 1.5 points a week before Alabama clobbered LSU 30-16 laying 7.5 points. They’ve gone in divergent directions ever since.

  Alabama has covered and won in its last four to avoid finishing the regular season with a losing against the spread record for the second straight year. Florida has won three of four, but covered only once in a disheartening stretch that included a 27-2 defeat to rival Florida State as 2.5-point underdogs last week and near-escapes against Florida Atlantic and Vanderbilt as 20-plus point favorites.

  The Gators are the 11th most inefficient offensive team in the nation over the last three weeks, gaining just 4.1 yards per play. And now they’ve got to play the Crimson Tide, which are first by almost any defensive metric including giving up only 4 yards per play.

  Alabama’s offense has ignited too behind Heisman favorite Derrick Henry, who leads the nation with 1,797 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns.

  Pick: Florida plus-18 Gators coach Jim McElwain will have some offensive wrinkles to surprise the Crimson Tide, and at least stay within the number.

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  David Zalubowski / AP

  Pac-12 Championship Game: USC plus-4.5 vs. Stanford in Santa Clara, Calif., over/under: 59; 4:45 p.m. on ESPN

  If USC celebrates the announcement of Clay Helton’s promotion to full-time head coach enough for the footage to go viral, then there’s no telling what the Trojans would do if they won the Pac-12 championship.

  There’s only approximately a 35 percent chance anyone will find out, according to the betting line. Despite coming into the season as the favorite and closing with wins in five of six Pac-12 contests, the Trojans enter the championship game as the biggest underdog they’ve been in a conference game since 2012.

  The line is largely a reflection of what happened earlier in the year, when Stanford defeated USC 41-31 on the road as a 9.5-point favorite. The Heisman campaign of sophomore running back Christian McCaffrey began in earnest on that night as he racked up 259 all-purpose yards

  A repeat performance would have him move into the top all-time spot for yards in a season. It might be a little tougher as USC has improved its rush defense.

  With the emergence of freshman linebacker Cameron Smith, the Trojans are giving up only 3.8 yards per rushing attempt to rank 38th in the nation.

  Stanford, conversely, surrenders a mediocre 5.8 yards per pass attempt, which could clear the way for another big game from USC senior quarterback Cody Kessler.

  Kessler threw for 272 yards and three touchdowns on 25-for-32 passing in the first game against Stanford.

  Pick: USC plus-4.5 A two-touchdown line swing from the first meeting is a bit too steep for me.

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  Nati Harnik / Associated Press

  Big Ten Championship Game: Michigan State minus-4 vs. Iowa in Indianapolis, over/under: 50.5; 5 p.m. on Fox

  The conference championship game with the tightest line is aptly the one that appears as a direct play-in to the college football playoff.

  The Hawkeyes and the Spartans look incredibly evenly matched with the former posting a plus-100 scoring differential in Big Ten play as opposed to the latter’s plus-98. But competition adjustments must be considered, as Iowa has come under heat all season for its weak schedule.

  The implication is that this will be the Hawkeyes’ toughest game, but they’ve actually had a more prohibitive point spread. They were a 6-point underdog at Wisconsin earlier in the year in a game they won 10-6.

  That was the only time they took points. Michigan State’s two outings as an underdog were its two brightest moments as it defeated Ohio State 17-14 as 14.5-point underdogs and Michigan 27-23 as 7-point underdogs on the final play of the games.

  The Spartans are far more efficient passing the ball behind college football’s current winningest quarterback in senior Connor Cook. That could be beneficial against an Iowa defense that ranks 58th in S&P ratings against the pass.

  Iowa is more inclined to pound the ball with senior running back Jordan Canzeri, and Michigan State has proven more vulnerable against the run.

  Pick: Over 50.5 points Both offenses should be able to get into rhythm on the Lucas Oil Stadium turf.

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  ASSOCIATED PRESS

  ACC Championship Game: North Carolina plus-4.5 vs. Clemson in Charlotte, over/under: 68; 5 p.m. on ABC

  Picking a side in the ACC Championship Game comes down to whether a bettor feels more comfortable with the team that’s played better on the year or the superior one in recent weeks.

  There’s little doubt the Tigers are stronger at their peak, as they won six of their first eight games by at least two touchdowns in starting 5-3 against the spread. But the only team they’ve beaten by that much over the last month is Wake Forest, 33-13 in a game Clemson was favored by 28.5 points, during an 0-4 against the spread stretch.

  North Carolina has concurrently come on, covering in four of five during an 11-game winning streak. The Tar Heels’ season-opening 17-14 loss to South Carolina as 3-point favorites now looks like one of the most inexplicable defeats in college football this season.

  North Carolina leads the nation in averaging 7.3 yards per play. Clemson has slipped down to 6.3, but its defensive advantage is more pronounced.

  The Tigers are ninth in the nation in surrendering only 4.5 yards per play, well ahead of the Tar Heels’ 5.1.

  Pick: Clemson minus-4.5 Always going with the larger sample size.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.