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October 21, 2014

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Vegas odds and picks for all remaining conference tournaments

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Sam Morris / Las Vegas Sun

UNLV forward Khem Birch defends a shot by San Diego State forward Skylar Spencer during their Mountain West Conference game Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at the Thomas & Mack Center.

Oddsmakers provoked some perplexed reactions around town when they released the line on UNLV winning the Mountain West Conference Tournament earlier this week.

The LVH Superbook tagged the Rebels at 3-to-1 — just slightly behind San Diego State and New Mexico at 2-to-1 each — to win this week’s event at the Thomas & Mack Center. Several fans weren’t buying it, not with a team that’s embroiled in injuries, soap operas and losing streaks.

Sports books had to be overvaluing the home team, right? Well, that feels like a stretch in a season where they’ve actually underrated the Rebels on the whole.

Bet most UNLV fans wouldn’t guess that, despite the disappointing season, the Rebels have the best against-the-spread record in the conference. UNLV is 19-12 versus the number.

Based on recent history, by the way, a 3-to-1 price to win the Mountain West tournament isn’t a bad place to start. Last season, New Mexico became the first top seed to win the tournament in seven years, but it extended the streak of the pre-tournament favorite failing to cut down the nets.

New Mexico was 2-to-1 going into the 2013 Mountain West tournament, just behind UNLV at plus-150 (risking $1 to win $1.50).

The tournament played to form other than New Mexico’s upset in the championship, as the favorites won straight up in each of the seven games in the first two rounds and covered in six of them.

The event down the street at the MGM Grand Garden Arena made up for the predictability. In its first year in Las Vegas, the Pac-12 Tournament was wild with four outright upsets in 11 games and a 6-4-1 against-the-spread record for underdogs.

It was topped off by Oregon overcoming 6-to-1 opening odds to win the tournament. That was one of three bets out of seven from this space that cashed, as this same post from exactly a year ago produced a 300 percent return on investment.

Talk about setting the bar high, but nonetheless, I’m back to take another leap.

Future odds aren’t typically the most profitable wager. Finding an attractive underdog, betting them on the money line every game of a tournament and rolling over the winnings typically yields a bigger payout. But for the sake of this exercise, I’ve bolded the odds I think I have the most value in each of the nine major conference tournaments.

American Athletic Tournament

No. 2 seed Louisville — minus-130

No. 1 seed Cincinnati — plus-400

No. 5 seed Memphis — plus-450

No. 3 seed SMU — plus-500

No. 4 seed UConn — plus-1200

No. 6 seed Houston — plus-6000

Field — plus-2500

ACC Tournament

No. 3 seed Duke — plus-150

No. 1 seed Virginia — plus-400

No. 2 seed Syracuse — plus-450

No. 4 seed North Carolina — plus-700

No. 5 seed Pittsburgh — plus-1000

No. 6 seed Clemson — plus-4000

No. 7 seed North Carolina State — plus-4000

No. 8 seed Maryland — plus-4000

No. 9 seed Florida State — plus-4000

Field — plus-500

Atlantic 10 Tournament

No. 2 seed Virginia Commonwealth — plus-175

No. 1 seed Saint Louis — plus-250

No. 3 seed George Washington — plus-800

No. 4 seed Saint Joseph’s — plus-800

No. 5 seed Dayton — plus-800

No. 6 seed UMass — plus-800

Field — plus-500

Big East Tournament

No. 1 seed Villanova — plus-150

No. 2 seed Creighton — plus-175

No. 5 seed Saint John’s — plus-600

No. 3 seed Xavier — plus-1000

No. 4 seed Providence — plus-1200

No. 6 seed Marquette — plus-1200

Field — plus-800

Big Ten Tournament

No. 1 seed Michigan — plus-350

No. 3 seed Michigan State — plus-350

No. 2 seed Wisconsin — plus-400

No. 5 seed Ohio State — plus-450

No. 6 seed Iowa — plus-450

No. 4 seed Nebraska — plus-1500

No. 7 seed Minnesota — plus-2000

No. 8 seed Indiana — plus-2500

No. 9 seed Illinois — plus-2500

No. 10 seed Penn State — plus-3000

No. 12 seed Purdue — plus-6000

No. 11 seed Northwestern — plus-1000

Big 12 Tournament

No. 1 seed Kansas — plus-200

No. 4 seed Iowa State — plus-400

No. 8 seed Oklahoma State — plus-400

No. 7 seed Baylor — plus-500

No. 2 seed Oklahoma — plus-600

No. 3 seed Texas — plus-800

No. 6 seed West Virginia — plus-1800

No. 5 seed Kansas State — plus-2500

No. 9 seed Texas Tech — plus-7500

No. 10 TCU — plus-2000

Mountain West Tournament

No. 1 seed San Diego State — plus-200

No. 2 seed New Mexico — plus-200

No. 4 seed UNLV — plus-300

No. 6 seed Boise State — plus-700

No. 3 seed UNR — plus-1500

No. 5 seed Wyoming — plus-6000

Field — plus-600

Pac-12 Tournament

No. 1 seed Arizona — minus-110

No. 2 seed UCLA — plus-450

No. 7 seed Oregon — plus-700

No. 3 seed Arizona State — plus-1000

No. 6 seed Stanford — plus-1000

No. 4 seed California — plus-1200

No. 5 seed Colorado — plus-1500

No. 8 seed Washington — plus-4000

No. 10 seed Oregon State — plus-7500

No. 11 seed Washington State — plus-20000

No. 12 seed USC — plus-20000

SEC Tournament

No. 1 seed Florida — minus-125

No. 2 seed Kentucky — plus-400

No. 4 seed Tennessee — plus-500

No. 5 seed Arkansas — plus-1500

No. 3 seed Georgia — plus-2000

No. 6 seed Ole Miss — plus-2500

No. 8 seed Missouri — plus-2500

No. 7 seed LSU — plus-3000

No. 10 seed Alabama — plus-4000

No. 9 seed Texas A&M — plus-10000

Field — plus-1200

Big Sky Tournament

No. 1 seed Weber State — minus-145

No. 4 seed Montana — plus-700

No. 6 seed Northern Colorado — plus-800

No. 2 seed North Dakota — plus-1200

Field — plus-225

Big West Tournament

No. 1 seed UC Irvine — plus-175

No. 2 seed UC Santa Barbara — plus-175

No. 3 seed Long Beach State — plus-450

No. 4 seed Hawaii — plus-450

No. 5 seed Cal State Northridge — plus-2000

No. 6 seed Cal State Fullerton — plus-2000

No. 7 seed Cal Poly — plus-2000

No. 8 seed Cal Riverside — plus-4000

Southland Tournament

No. 1 seed Stephen F. Austin — minus-200

No. 2 seed Texas A&M Corpus Christi — plus-600

Field — plus-225

Sun Belt Tournament

No. 1 seed Georgia State — minus-120

No. 3 seed Louisiana-Lafayette — plus-300

No. 2 seed Western Kentucky — plus-400

No. 4 seed Arkansas State — plus-600

Field — plus-800

WAC Tournament

No. 2 seed New Mexico State — minus-300

No. 1 seed Utah Valley State — plus-600

No. 6 seed Cal Bakersfield — plus-700

No. 5 seed Idaho — plus-800

No. 7 seed Seattle — plus-1800

No. 4 seed UMKC — plus-2500

No. 3 seed Chicago State — plus-5000

No. 8 seed Texas Pan-American — plus-6000

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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