A Vegas look at the NBA: Hot and cold playoff teams by the money

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, April 25, 2012 | 8 p.m.

There was a time when the Utah Jazz were an afterthought in the NBA’s Western Conference playoff race.

That time was the majority of the season. Coming off a 39-43 year in which the Jazz traded their only star — point guard Deron Williams to the Nets — practically no one picked them to advance to the postseason.

Those projections only grew stronger by the All-Star break in late February, when Utah was 10th in the conference standings and three games out of the playoffs with a 15-17 record.

Despite the subpar start, the Jazz became the final team to clinch its spot in the playoffs Wednesday night with a 100-88 victory over the Phoenix Suns.

To most fans, it may feel like Utah’s run came out of nowhere. To anyone who regularly bets on the NBA, it’s as surprising as another Charlotte Bobcats loss.

That’s to say, not surprising at all.

Utah has printed cash for bettors during the second half of the season. They are 19-14 against the spread since the All-Star break, the second-best mark for a playoff-bound Western Conference team.

As usual, Utah has a strong home court advantage at EnergySolutions Arena. The Jazz have gone 20-12 against the spread in Salt Lake City.

Barring a collapse by the Denver Nuggets, Utah will hold onto the No. 8 seed in the playoffs and face the only team with better against-the-spread marks at home and in the second half of the year.

The San Antonio Spurs have gone 24-8-1 against the spread at the Alamodome and 22-7-1 versus the number since the All-Star break.

Despite the Spurs taking three of four contests against the Jazz this season, it doesn’t project as an easy first-round series. Don’t forget San Antonio lost as a No. 1 seed last season, falling to the No. 8 seed Memphis Grizzlies in six games.

Utah has the frontcourt depth, led by two of the league’s most underappreciated players in Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap, to drag San Antonio into a long series.

Utah had a preseason over/under win total of 31 games this season. The Jazz have won 35 with one regular season game left. The Spurs have also gone over their win total, notching 47 victories with one pending to eclipse their 40.5 projection.

The Jazz and Spurs lead our list of teams on a profitable streak heading into the playoffs this weekend. Check below to find one other hot team and two that have cooled off by Vegas standards.

Boston Celtics

Like the Jazz, the Celtics went 15-17 during the first half of the season. They were clinging to a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference before emerging in the final two months of the season.

Boston has gone 20-11-2 against the spread since the All-Star break, compared with a money-burning 13-19 record before the last week of February.

The improvement of Boston’s bench — particularly former Findlay Prep standout Avery Bradley — and bill of health has it competing for home-court advantage in a locked-up No. 4 vs. No. 5 series with the Atlanta Hawks.

Boston has covered in four of six meetings against Atlanta over the past two years.

Dallas Mavericks

The defending NBA champions have tortured bettors down the stretch.

The Mavericks have gone 12-19 against the number, losing games they shouldn’t and failing to cover in wins because of an inability to put teams away. Dallas has provided bad beats in large supply.

Some fans are calling this season a championship hangover. An aging roster and disappointing off-season are more accurate reasons for the drop-off.

The effect of losing Tyson Chandler and J.J. Barea — especially Chandler — became more noticeable as the season progressed. The Mavericks were 21-13 (20-14 against the spread) at the halfway point of the season and battling for a top seed in the playoffs.

Now, they’ll be one of the bottom seeds. Even worse news? Dallas is likely to face either the Los Angeles Lakers or Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round, two teams they have gone a combined 1-7 against this season. But the Mavericks have covered in three of four games against Oklahoma City, and one of three against Los Angeles.

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are a curious case.

They’ve had a terrific second half of the year, going 21-10 straight-up and sometimes looking among the elite in the Western Conference. But their 13-18 against the spread record since the All-Star break leaves much to be desired in Vegas.

Memphis is addicted to close games. The Grizzlies aren’t great as a favorite or playing on the road. They’ve gone 5-13 against the number as favorites of more than six points and 13-20 away from the FedEx Forum.

They can wrestle away home-court advantage from their first-round opponent, the Los Angeles Clippers, by beating the Magic Thursday night. That might determine how far the Grizzlies can go in the playoffs.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.