Super Bowl Betting: Seven props and seven points

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Feb. 5, 2011 | 2:05 a.m.

Watching the Super Bowl in Las Vegas without a handful of prop bets to keep an eye on is akin to traveling to Hawaii and not going to the beach.

It defeats the whole purpose. That’s why, against my better judgment, I’ll have a stack of prop bets riding on Super XLV by the time it kicks off at 3:30 Sunday afternoon in Dallas.

At least it isn’t hard for anyone to find a couple of props to their liking. The Las Vegas Hilton alone has more than 300 wagers posted on this year’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers.

Let’s make a quick disclaimer here: I’m nothing like the bettors mentioned in the story linked above. I might have close to the same bankroll as the gentleman in the picture accompanying this blog — in Monopoly money.

I didn’t spend hours running simulations through algorithms to uncover value hidden in prop books or try valiantly to set up middling opportunities.

But I’d like to take advantage of the one game per year where more action is available than a Liam Neeson movie. So here are seven props that caught my eye while flipping through the Hilton’s offerings.

Team to have the first penalty: Green Bay (+115)

The Packers were one of the most penalized teams in the NFL this season. Although I think “Super Bowl experience” is vastly overrated, it could come into play here. Maybe one of the Packers big linemen has jitters and jumps offside before the first snap. At a plus-money price, it’s hard to pass up.

Which will Ben Roethlisberger throw first: Interception (+165) over Touchdown

Big Ben looked dreadful in the second half of the AFC Championship and threw two interceptions. Also, forget how much you’ve heard of Roethlisberger being “a big game quarterback.” In two previous Super Bowls, he has one touchdown pass and three interceptions.

Troy Polamalu total tackles: Under 4.5

This is one of my favorites. Polamalu is not 100 percent and I think there’s a better chance he gets an interception than five tackles. He had five against the Jets in the AFC Championship, but that was the first time since Week 11 of the regular season.

Green Bay Packers first downs: Over 18.5

This is a nice way to show confidence in Aaron Rodgers without having to bet ‘over’ on one of his inflated individual props.

Total Net Yards: Under 666.5

I’m predicting no more than 650 yards in this game.

Receiving Yards: Mike Wallace +14.5 vs. Greg Jennings

That’s a little too much in a matchup between both team’s premier receiver. Maybe it’s an overreaction after Jennings had 231 yards combined in Green Bay’s last two games. Jennings has eight more yards than Wallace on the year.

Who Will Have More Points Sunday: Packers (-3.5) vs. Dwight Howard

Howard’s Orlando Magic play the Boston Celtics, who have the size to contain him. Boston has held Howard to single digits three times in the regular season the last two years.

As for the game, mark me down for a small play on Green Bay -2.5 with a slight lean to the over.

Packers 27, Steelers 20.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.