Bowl Pick’em Against The Spread Entry 3

By Case Keefer (contact)

Monday, Dec. 27, 2010 | 1:35 p.m.

I want to have a positive outlook.

Channeling my inner-Metloaf and vowing two out of eight ain’t bad is tempting. Oh, the Metloaf song was “Two Out Of Three Ain’t Bad”? Darn.

It’s just that optimism is hard to come by when a project turns this sour. Week 2 was hardly better than Week 1 for the picks in this space, as I went 2-3 following a disastrous 0-3 start.

The two games that bookended the week were particularly hard to swallow. Southern Miss blew a 17-point lead in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl and lost by three, failing to cover by a half-point. Then, Toledo went for a two-point conversion with a minute left in the Little Caesars Bowl and converted to go up 32-31 as a 1.5-point favorite.

FIU ended up kicking a game-winning field goal, but the Golden Panthers would have probably opted to play for overtime if the Rockets just did the sensible thing and kicked the extra point.

Say what you will, but 3-5 sounds a lot better than 2-6. I’m facing quite the challenge to get back to even, but this is where it can be accomplished.

In the next six days, there are 20 bowl games. Is hoping for a 13-7 run too outlandish? Meatloaf wouldn’t think so.

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl: Air Force (-3) vs. Georgia Tech

Monday 2:00, Independence Stadium in Shreveport, La., ESPN2

Can this bowl be renamed the Option Bowl for this year? These two teams have the two best triple option attacks in the nation. Georgia Tech averages 327 rushing yards, while Air Force has compiled 318 per game. Georgia Tech stumbled down the stretch without quarterback Josh Nesbitt and lost two of its final three.

But it's worth considering who the Yellow Jackets lost to in those games — Georgia and Miami. Air Force hasn't played a decent team since October, when it lost to San Diego State, TCU and Utah. Here's to thinking Air Force isn't ready for the step up in competition. Underdogs have covered two straight bowl games after starting 0-6. Make it three today in Louisiana.

Pick: Georgia Tech +3

Champ Sports Bowl: No. 22 West Virginia (-2.5) vs. North Carolina State

Tuesday 3:30, Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando, ESPN

The Mountaineers finished off the season in impressive fashion, outscoring opponents a combined 124-44 in their last four games. Look at the whole season, however, and the Wolf Pack might be the better team.

North Carolina State has an excellent defense and experienced quarterback in three-year starter Russell Wilson. Disappointing that the line dropped from four to two as it’s much easier to take NC State with more than a field goal. Lean to the Wolf Pack, but this could go either way and end up being one of the better bowls.

Pick: North Carolina State +2.5

Insight Bowl: No. 12 Missouri (-2.5) vs. Iowa

Tuesday 7:00, Sundevil Stadium Tempe, Ariz., ESPN

Iowa is a mess right now. The Hawkeyes will play without their all-time leading receiver, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, and leading rusher, Adam Robinson, because of disciplinary reasons.

Iowa also dropped its final three, including losses to Northwestern and Minnesota. That’s not the kind of team I want to back in a bowl game. Only mystery is why the line isn’t higher.

Pick: Missouri -2.5

Military Bowl: East Carolina (+7.5) vs. Maryland

Wednesday 11:30, RFK Memorial Washington DC, ESPN

Maryland overachieved and East Carolina underachieved. That's the story of the season for these two teams. The Pirates wasted a top 10 passing offense and a breakout year from quarterback Dominique Davis and only finished 6-6 because their defense was one of the worst units in the nation.

There's upheaval in College Park, Md. Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen will coach in his final game after he was fired at the end of the season. Offensive coordinator James Franklin also left the team to become Vanderbilt's new coach. It's hard to lay more than a touchdown with a team going through all those changes. Terrapins will likely eek out a close win.

Pick: East Carolina +7.5

Texas Bowl: Illinois (+1) vs. Baylor

Wednesday 3:00, Reliant Stadium Houston, ESPN

Baylor looks like it could be one of the better bets of bowl season. With the way things are going on this blog, that means line up at the window and take the points with Illinois. On paper, however, the Bears are probably the better outfit.

They are playing in their first bowl game since 1994 and in their home state no less. Baylor is led by dynamic quarterback Robert Griffin who should cause problems for an Illinois defense that often looked shaky this season.

Pick: Baylor -1

Valero Alamo Bowl: No. 14 Oklahoma State (-5) vs. Arizona

Wednesday 6:15, Alamodome San Antonio, ESPN

Arizona ended the season in brutal fashion, dropping its last four and providing little resistance to the offenses of USC, Stanford, Arizona State and Oregon. By the way, Oklahoma State leads the nation in total offense.

Believing Arizona shows up inspired and plays one of its best games is far from delusional. Arizona coach Mike Stoops didn't have much trouble with Oklahoma State when he coached at Oklahoma under his brother Bob Stoops. But the Cowboys have one too many pieces, highlighted by receiver Justin Blackmon, for the Wildcats to matchup with.

Pick: Oklahoma State -5

Bowl Record: 2-6

Note: Because of the number of bowl games this week, this page will be updated with selections every day during the week instead of adding new entries everyday.