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August 29, 2014

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Romney well ahead after first night of polling in Nevada

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Steve Marcus

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his wife, Ann, arrive for a rally at Brady Industries in Las Vegas on Feb. 1, 2012.

Mitt Romney is up by 15-20 points after one night of polling in Nevada, with Newt Gingrich poised to finish second, Public Policy Polling reports.

The caucus universe is difficult to poll but Public Policy Polling has done well in Nevada, including the difficult 2010 Senate race almost every pollster blew.

The first night impressions via pollster Tom Jensen:

"Romney leads Newt by about 15-20 points. The main suspense may be whether he gets over 50%, he will certainly have a chance. Paul is 3rd and Santorum 4th, both around 15%. The chances of Paul besting Gingrich for 3rd are pretty minuscule.

"Gingrich is barely above water on his favorability numbers. Santorum is actually the most universally well liked candidate but it’s not translating into intent to vote for him.

"Mormon vote looks to be about 20% of the electorate. And well over half of voters see Romney as the strongest against Obama in the fall."

And now -- call in the cliche -- it's all about turnout.

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