Monday, Sept. 19, 2011 | 2:28 p.m.
The survey, conducted Sept. 14-15 by national GOP pollster Glen Bolger, shows Republican Sen. Dean Heller ahead of Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley, 48-42. (500 likely voters, MOE is 4.38 percent)
Bolger's work generally has been spot-on in Nevada -- for example, he had Harry Reid ahead of Sharron Angle by 5 percentage points late in the 2010 Senate race, just off the final margin.
The survey -- and I have posted details and crosstabs at right -- was paid for by the Retail Association of Nevada, which does regular polling (using Bolger) in Nevada. It shows Heller ahead in Washoe County by 17 points, which, if he can sustain it, could be fatal to Berkley. It also shows Heller up 2-to-1 with independents, which also would kill the Democrat's chances.
The race is closer across gender and age groups. But I would like to meet the 12 percent of "very conservative" voters who supported Berkley